Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Russia building an A2/AD Bubble over Syria/Levant

Please read this entirely:

I've been trying to sort fact from fiction regarding Russian involvement in Syria. Without relying on disinfo from Ruslan Liviev and Bellingcat!  The most egregious propaganda contains a mere grain of truth surrounded by a mass of lies. That, in my opinion, fit most of the reports concerning Russian involvement in Syria.  I seem to be nearly alone, except for Saker, in trying to be rational and not disseminate propaganda.  Finally and it pleases me to no end, I've found something that makes sense to me!


First time I had heard of this concept. Not sure if other readers are aware of  the A2/AD strategy, but, when I read about it, let's say, the light bulb went on! Below is a very brief explanation to the question, just what is A2/AD?

"Anti-access and area denial are modern terms referring to war-fighting strategies focused on preventing an opponent from operating military forces near, into or within a contested region. 
Along with the obvious military aspects, anti-access strategies include political, diplomatic and economic tactics.

Denying access to an enemy is a natural objective for any defender and should be considered an integral component of any military campaign. However, the terms anti-access and area denial—as currently used—are specifically meant to denote a strategic approach intended to defend against an opponent that is judged to be of superior strength or skill in overall combat operations.
 If the opponent is allowed to use this superior strength or skill, it is feared that the defender would likely be defeated at the point of contact. Therefore, the objective of an anti-access or area denial strategy is to prevent the attacker from bringing its operationally superior force into the contested region, or to prevent the attacker from freely operating within the region and maximizing its combat power. The uniqueness of the anti-access approach is that it is specifically designed to prevent regional access against an out-of-area global power that the defender cannot otherwise defeat"
Hoping that explains A2/AD in a succinct manner?

A2/AD Bubble over Syria and the Levant-

Keeping in mind that the A2/AD strategy is a  DEFENDER/DEFENCE strategy to prevent/block/deny regional access, to an attacker, the defender cannot otherwise engage succesfully.

This certainly fits the scenario unfolding in Syria. Despite the blathering idiot talk on line and elsewhere Russia cannot take on/defeat NATO. Except in a nuclear war? Which none of us want.
So the A2/AD strategy makes very good sense for the Syrian/Russian partnership. It enables them work together to jointly DEFEND  from an outside attacker- NATO

General Breedlove, German Marshal Fund meeting, September 28/2015

Hyperbole omitted-

“Anti-access/area denial, or A2/AD, is a growing problem,” Gen. Breedlove told the German Marshall Fund this afternoon

The northernmost danger zone or “bubble” is the oldest, based out of the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad between Poland and Lithuania. “Kaliningrad is a large platform for A2/AD capability,” Breedlove said

Breedlove “[Since] their occupation of Crimea, Russia has developed a very strong A2/AD capability in the Black Sea,” Breedlove said. “Essentially, their [anti-ship] cruise missiles range the entire Black Sea, and their air defense missiles range about 40 to 50 percent of the Black Sea.”
Occupation of Crimea? Breedlove is selling the lie- but those are his actual words so we have to tolerate the baloney for the sake of accuracy

Breedlove regarding Syria: . “As we see these very capable air defense [systems] beginning to show up in Syria, we’re a little worried about another A2/AD bubble being created in the Eastern Mediterranean, Breedlove said. “We see some very sophisticated air defenses going into these airfields. We see some very sophisticated air-to-air [fighter] aircraft going into these airfields.”

How much of this next paragraph is directly attributable to Breedlove is unknown? Only one statement is a direct quote-
Based on the military forces Russia is actually putting in place, Breedlove said, he believes Putin’s top priority is to protect Russian access to airfields and warm water seaports in the Eastern Mediterranean. The second priority, in service to the first, is to prop up Russia’s host, the Assad regime. Then third, he said, “After all of that, I think that they will do some counter-ISIL work to legitimize their approach to Syria.”

Then Breedlove really goes into full on psychopathy!

So what can NATO do about these expanding bubbles of no-go zones? First of all, in the Baltic and the Black Seas today, the alliance’s force can just go there, Breedlove said “to contest that they are not forbidden spaces” but international airspace and waters. Second, in case the shooting starts, it needs to invest in forces that can break the bubble.
Breedlove: just go in guns a blazing... Yikes

“As an alliance, we need to step back and take a look at our capability in a military sense to address an A2/AD challenge,” Breedlove said. “This is about investment. This is about training.”

Additional Information on A2/AD and Russia:               

US Air Force: Russia Has Closed Air Power Gap With NATO

NATO’s air superiority vis-à-vis Russia is waning, Air Force (USAF) General Frank Gorenc, the commander of U.S. Air Forces in Europe and Africa told an audience at this year’s Air and Space Conference held near Washington DC.
According to the general, Russia accelerated the development of A2/AD capabilities during the 2008 war with Georgia and has heavily invested in fielding modern long-range surface-to-air missile systems (.e.g., the S-400) and other land-based A2/AD weapon systems based on their experience during the war. “They learned a lot along the way, and they made moves to close the asymmetric advantage posed by the quality of our air force; they’ve done it”

“It’s one thing to address a aircraft threat that has increased significantly — which by the way it has — but clearly, surface to air missile systems are much cheaper, they’re much more available and that is a concern,” he added.

Gorenc was adamant that the proliferation of A2/AD capabilities poses a challenge to U.S. air power worldwide. “Up to this point, we have talked about anti-access/area denial with respect to the Pacific problem, but what I’m telling you is this is not just a Pacific problem. It’s as significant in Europe as it is anywhere else on the planet.”

Indeed, A2/AD capabilities are fundamentally undermining the essence of the American way of war (See: “The End of the American Way of War?”). ”The American way of war requires a robust air reconnaissance … because we believe with air superiority, everything is possible and without it, nothing is possible.

You can, of course, read more for yourself at all the embedded links!


  1. What it boils down to is that Russia is creating a no-fly zone for NATO. Russia has invited the US to join them in their war against ISIS which would mean co-ordinating all the NATO flights with Russian intelligence who control the new air defences. If NATO flights deviate from pre-planned and pre-approved sorties, then they risk getting shot down.

    US/NATO is not going to agree to that in a 'pink fit' but their only other option is to not fly. Hence the tizzy fits. Russia has trapped the US with their own propaganda.

    Without air superiority, any NATO ground forces (regular, mercenary or loonies) are fucked - to quote military speak.

    It would be worth taking another look at that picture of Putin and Obummer toasting each other. The faces may convey more meaning. (at the moment, my face now looks much like Putin's i.e. big cheesey grin)

    1. Hi james!

      It seems that way for sure. (no fly zone for NATO) However, reading this information it seems pretty clear that there is no need for massive troop movement aka the typical disinfo where we have Russian troops on the ground etc- (boots on the ground) it seems using this tactic there would be no need for Russian boots on the ground in Syria- which Putin said yesterday- no troops and no plans for troop presently.
      The Syrian Army are the boots Because it's Syrian territory!
      Russia can't spare a mass of their own troops- which is why they are using this tactic
      I can see the need for trained personnel to operate these systems-
      In alignment with trained Syrian military personnel. For coordinating the where, when and how of this tactic. So that explains the advisors.

      James which image would I be looking at ? Can you leave a link?

  2. Sorry Penny. I thought I got it from a link from your site. It came from an Alexander Mercuris article. Here's the photo anyway. The text is bullshit but the photos great

  3. The End of the American Way of War?

    Well this is really bad news, just think of the job loses among Amerikas liberal neo-conns. They will be collecting unemployment or homeless along with all the pundits no longer needed to scare the sheeple of Amerika. Scary but I do like the thought of that happening, fingers crossed;)

    Thanks for the link Penny;)

    1. Hey jo, you are welcome :)
      I could think of other places and spaces for the neo cons ;)
      "The End of the American Way of War" The American way really seems to be just about bombing people to smithereens- mass casualties etc
      Which seems to be exactly what the US has been doing in Syria with the help of the Kurd terror groups.

      I've been so tired of much of the rubbish on line- We all have to be realistic about the abilities and limitations, agendas etc- There have been way way too many comments made about Russia duking it out with NATO as of that's realistic- save for going all nuclear it isn't

      However this strategy was understandable and appeared to make sense
      Ran it by my sounding board, hubby, and he thought it seemed quite plausible also-

      take care jo

  4. I thought this part was quite interesting
    from this link- embedded in the post


    ".....planning for potential wars of necessity.

    Unlike wars of choice, wars of necessity can’t just hurt America or our economic or political standing in the world—but can literally destroy us

    Those number of nations against which we could potentially fight a war of necessity remains mercifully small: China; Iran; North Korea; Russia in the “near abroad” or in the eastern NATO states

    This tells everyone that all wars the US and co have undertaken were wars of choice! Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yugoslavia, All the African nations- South America, most of it.

    All wars of choice- no threat to America or Americans- I truly hope some readers give that a good thinking over