Wednesday, April 6, 2016

Nagorno Karabakh or Why I'm ignoring the Panama Papers.

Lots of coverage on the Panama Papers, so, no need for me to add any more. From the first day the news broke, it felt like a distraction.  The ultra rich hiding their money doesn't seem like anything new under the sun.
That said,what's happening with Nagarno Karabakh? Now that  looks to be where the action is!
A new front in the war to remake the Middle East and the "Heartland"  or "The World Island"
A theory originating with Mackinder and expanded upon by Brzezinski.
This PDF may help a very little

Image borrowed from jay's analysis

Jay has a related article-Why Does The “War on Terror” Serve Western Policy?

So I've been looking at some bits and pieces here and there...

 Historically Speaking:

Stalin’s Legacy: The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

 Nagorno-Karabakh is a highly contested, landlocked region in the South Caucasus of the former Soviet Union. The present-day conflict has its roots in the decisions made by Joseph Stalin when he was the acting Commissar of Nationalities for the Soviet Union during the early 1920s. In April 1920, Azerbaijan was taken over by the Bolsheviks;  Armenia and Georgia were taken over in 1921 (By the Bolsheviks) To garner public support, the Bolsheviks promised Karabakh to Armenia. At the same time, in order to placate Turkey, the Soviet Union agreed to a division under which Karabakh would be under the control of Azerbaijan. With the Soviet Union firmly in control of the region, the conflict over the region died down for several decades.

 When the USSR began to collapse, the question of Nagorno-Karabakh re-emerged. In August 1987 Karabakh Armenians sent petition for union with Armenia tens of thousands of signatures to Moscow. The struggle over Nagorno-Karabakh escalated after both Armenia and Azerbaijan attained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991
 And you can read the rest at the link directly above- Not so much Stalin's legacy. As a legacy left behind by the Bolsheviks.  Interesting about those Bolsheviks?

When I first heard this fighting had broke out. I sat down and looked at a map. Right on the border with Turkey and Iran. That's convenient. Seems to be another way to start weakening these two nations. It's also in Russia's neighbourhood- Any conflict in the 'hood will only work against Russia.

Who would want to weaken or create chaos in this area? 

It turns out just about 6 days ago- John Kerry met with the leader of Azerbaijan. And declares, at that time, that he wants a permanent settlement to the Nagarno Karabakh issue.

“U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry met today in Washington with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to discuss a range of bilateral and regional issues. Secretary Kerry commended Azerbaijan’s role in European energy security as a leader in developing the Southern Gas Corridor. He expressed U.S. support for Azerbaijan’s efforts to become a regional trade hub.

Secretary Kerry also thanked President Aliyev for Azerbaijan’s contributions to NATO’s mission in Afghanistan, its support for peacekeeping operations, and its important counterterrorism role. On democracy and human rights issues, Secretary Kerry welcomed Azerbaijan’s recent positive steps and urged further progress.
The two also discussed efforts to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Secretary Kerry affirmed U.S. support for Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity and underscored our concern about violence along the Line of Contact and the international border. He emphasized our commitment to working with the sides to reach a comprehensive settlement based on the principles of international law, the UN Charter, and the Helsinki Final Act”, U.S. Department of State reported.
U.S. Department of State also distributed John Kerry’s and Ilham Aliyev’s remarks made before their meeting:
SECRETARY KERRY: Good afternoon, everybody. I’m really pleased to welcome somebody I’ve had a chance to meet with a number of times elsewhere, but I’m happy to welcome the president of Azerbaijan, President Aliyev. We have a lot of mutual interests that we are currently working on. We’re very grateful to Azerbaijan’s contributions to peacekeeping, their efforts in Afghanistan. Obviously, Azerbaijan is located in a complex region right now and I think President Aliyev has been very studious and thoughtful about how to respond to some of those needs, particularly with his leadership on the Southern Gas Corridor. This is a very important step with respect to Europe’s long-term strategic interests, and frankly, to try to diversify the sourcing of energy, which is important.

We obviously share other interests in counterterrorism. We want to see an ultimate resolution of the frozen conflict of Nagorno-Karabakh that needs to be a negotiated settlement and something that has to be worked on over time.
But right now, I want to thank the president for his presence here for the Nuclear Security Summit and for the many courtesies that he has shown recently as he moves to adjust the economic opportunity for Azerbaijan as well as the security relationship with the region. And delighted to have you here. Thank you.
So March 30/2016 Kerry meets with the Azerbajani leadership and bullets begin to fly within days. Coincidence? Or something else?

Nagorno-Karabakh is not a localised conflict
It's definitely not a localized conflict. No sireee....
It does not take a leap from reality to see how this conflict could spill over into a bigger war in the South Caucasus.
 Far from being just a localised conflict watched by many with curiosity on our television screens, the war in Nagorno-Karabakh is actually a tangled web of competing geopolitical interests from across the region.
The risk of the war spilling over is real. 
 This is not about Russia poking Turkey in the eye! The US talking head is spinning that nonsense and it's just that nonsense- Russia has no interest in fomenting war with Turkey-
Russia has sold a whole pile of arms to Azerbaijan, so the US presented simplistic narrative doesn't fit.
The South Caucasus is a tinderbox almost perpetually on the brink of igniting. Often it is Russia's hand that is shaping and influencing events in the South Caucasus.
But Russia isn't the only player as the very biased writer finally acknowledges
For the US, events in the South Caucasus can affect regional security, and by extension, the US and Europe's security.
For Europe, stability and security in the South Caucasus matters for energy reasons and for the bigger dream of creating a continent that is whole, free and at peace.
 The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline and the South Caucasus Pipeline - both crucial for Europe's energy needs - run within several miles of the frontlines of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Ah yes a Europe whole and free- That's NATO talk for a Europe under the thumb of NATO. We've talked this topic previously readers. And oddly Hillary Clinton mentioned that at the time of the Brussels bombing- It's a plan.  "Toward a Europe Whole & Free" Via NATO global dominance

Same talking head quoted at Al Jazeera- this time Heritage Foundation

The Nagorno–Karabakh Conflict: U.S. Vigilance Required
 Despite its physical distance from the United States, events in the South Caucasus can affect regional security and, by extension, transatlantic security.
 We should understand that if this conflict grows Georgia will be involved. So were talkin' Iran, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan.... This doesn't benefit Russia one little bit.
As for the US .... better a war there ,then on American territory (Certainly, I want no part of this and wish Canada would mind it's own business!) 
 *Fighting terrorism: When is a war not a war?- Lies Canada's Government Tells

Remaining Vigilant

What happens in the South Caucasus can have regional, transatlantic, and global implications. While the U.S. has no direct military role in the conflict, it is in America’s interest that the conflict does not spiral out of control. The U.S. should therefore:
  •  Monitor the situation in Nagorno–Karabakh.
  •  Show a more visible presence in the region
  • Encourage countries in the region to stay away from Russian-dominated organizations. 

Karabakh: Not an Armenian-Turkish war 

 Turkey cannot help Azerbaijan win a war against Armenians. Turkey shouldn’t give this hope to Azerbaijan; Azerbaijan shouldn’t believe that Turkey can provide any serious military support, and Armenia shouldn’t be afraid of a Turkish-Azerbaijani alliance. Karabakh is not a Turkish-Armenian war. Turks are not at war against Armenians.
 There is no military solution in Karabakh. Iran shares a border with Karabakh and is therefore an important stakeholder in stability around Karabakh. A new war would affect Iran directly as war in Syria affects Turkey. With projectiles hitting Iranian villages over this weekend, a longer military confrontation between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces would trigger its share of refugee influx. 
Iran does not want a pile of refugees heading into their nation
Moreover Iran, where ethnic Armenians and ethnic Azeris live peacefully together, can contribute to the peaceful settlement of the dispute and to building trust between populations divided by the conflict. Turkey should be similarly supportive of the diplomatic and confidence-building efforts rather than be a conflict side.
Related Reading:

  A return to war would destabilise a region that is a crossroads for strategically-important oil and gas pipelines. It could also drag in the big regional powers.....
The clashes were around the "contact line," a heavily-mined no-man's land that, since the 1994 ceasefire, has separated the Armenian-backed forces, in the foothills of the Karabakh mountains, from Azeri troops dug into defensive positions in the plains below.

Turkish, Iranian, Azeri FMs meet in Ramsar, Iran

The top national diplomats of Turkey, Iran, and Azerbaijan on Tuesday held a trilateral meeting in Iran to discuss key cooperation issues.
Speaking to reporters after the meeting held in Ramsar, Iran on the shores of the Caspian Sea, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said he had discussed "key cooperation issues" with his Turkish and Azerbaijani counterparts, Mevlut Cavusoglu and Elmar Mammadyarov.

And ironically an Israeli made Kamikazee drone has played a starring role in all this

Video footage by  Karen Chilingaryan of RFE/RL's Armenian Service on April 4 in the mountainous enclave captured the flight of a drone that military observers say is likely an Israeli-made Harop model. 
The footage shows the craft flying through the air, with a distinctive whine heard from many drones, and then diving behind the crest of a hill.
The Armenian Defense Ministry later announced that seven people were killed in what it said was an Azerbaijani drone attack on a bus carrying volunteers to the disputed region.

Nagarno Karabakh could be the spark to a roaring fire. 
 Let's hope the situation cools down very quickly.


  1. The Israeli angle was of course played down by msm since Israel has had a not so secret drone base in Azerbaijan for years. It was used for snooping on Iran's military capabilities and alleged dangerous nuclear program. Yes, the US is the likely culprit but add to that the fact that Eric Prince (former blackwater owner) was in Turkey recently along with the decapitated head displayed by a Yezidi fighting for Azer. and I see him moving Kurdishis around to South Caucasus region. Also there was video of elderly whose ears had been cut off - a trait from the Ottoman times. Looks like somebody was attempting to throw suspicion on Turkey. Russia didn't take the bait and hinted that a third force was involved. That makes most sense as right now nobody in the region gains from all out war. The only one who benefits is US/NATO. Prince was the big giveaway that connects everything. And his involvement is the one thing no western media is talking about. Once a CIA asset, always a CIA asset in his case.

    1. Hey Silver Palomino:

      So, we have an Israeli drone base in Azerbaijan- able to spy on Iran- I have an article bookmarked about that

      I saw the Yezidi decapitation story (of course, I don't know if the person was yezidi) however what I do know is that's a familiar narrative- (Kurd victim non sunni) Which would tie back to, as you state, a demonizing of Turkey- Where theTurkey vs Russia meme can repeat again.

      But that didn't make sense considering ,ah reality.
      Turkey is under attack already- it's long been obvious or at least should be obvious to everyone by now.

      The location of Nagarno Karabakh is an ideal locale for a tipping point scenario (minor to major, irreversible, long term consequences) -border of iran, turkey, georgia- never mind the two countries of armenia and azerbaijan. And of course you have Russia

      Then there is the known fact that armenians have fought alongside the kurds in Syria and that we had an Armenian suicide bomber in turkey already

      I also, as hard as I tried, couldn't figure out how this situation got heated up again- until I entertained the possibility that it had been a third party external player and the Israeli 'kamikaze' drone fits the bill to a tee!

      I missed the Prince to Turkey news story-dam!
      If you have a link I'd love it!

    2. Sorry I took so long getting back here Penny -

      The only article I have in english about Prince visiting Turkey is from al masdar. But here's the link if you still want it:

      Good point about the Yezidi - how would we know for sure?? But this time it also makes sense when added to the populations in NKR at the time of Bolshevic revolution into Soviet times. There was an area of Azerbaijan/Armenia with a majority Kurd population. A leftover from the Ottoman reign in the region. That comes from a 44 pg. pdf that can only be obtained by joining a site but take my word on it - I was surprised to learn of it.

  2. Wiki is surprisingly open on this one :

    "Mossack was born in Fürth, Bavaria, Germany on 20 March 1948.[1] His father Erhard Mossack was a Rottenführer (senior corporal) in the Waffen-SS, the armed wing of the Nazi Party's Schutzstaffel, during World War II. According to the U.S. intelligence files he offered to spy for the U.S. government. His father moved to Panama with his family in the early 1960s, where he offered his services to the United States Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), spying on Communist activity in nearby Cuba.[2][3] In 2016, Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service, when contacted by journalists, said they had documents relating to Erhard Mossack but won't share any Information due to possible security risks.[4][5]"

    The father was still alive into the 90s so the company began while he was still alive, and , perhaps , still helping the CIA [hide a pile of Nazi gold :] }


  3. And apologies as you're trying to ignore it. Nevertheless having a Nazi around will certainly garner some attention.


    1. Hey Aferrismoon- well that is an interesting aspect and one I hadn't read about or heard of in all the media coverage- There was article after article about the rich hiding their money,but, your angle is quite curious.

      Might even make me have a deeper look at the situation

  4. Hi Penny
    I think the Panama Papers possibly are a distraction, yet more so as I explain in the following:
    I think it more likely that the Panama Papers is:

    1: A political ploy to get you to look in the wrong place while the main event is happening elswhere.

    2: Is a psy op from the good ol usa as part of the hybrid war that is being pushed via CIA and friends to gain more control of the Financial system from London which is still the Financial capital of the world and something Wall street wants to get its hands on to have the major share relegating London to an also ran second fiddle. I see the USA as losing its hold on the world capital with the formation of the BRICS (some engineered disruption going on in Brazil as we type this)

    3: the Formation of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation which is a rival to the Economic blocks the USA is trying to cobble together. Link SCO

    4: The Russian Commonwealth of Independent states which Include Russia, Belarus, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan, and Moldova which I am not sure if it is still in or out.

    These 2 groupings are putting a huge strain on the USA financial supremacy, so any trick to shake the tree and make some fruit fall is fair game to them, the longer this Financial tug of war goes on the more intense it will get.

    The Panama Papers were leaked and given to a German news outlet which then wanted help verifying them. They chose the
    “International Consortium of Investigative Journalists”
    which is funded and organised entirely by the USA’s Center for Public Integrity.

    Their funders include:

    Ford Foundation
    Carnegie Endowment
    Rockefeller Family Fund
    W K Kellogg Foundation
    Open Society Foundation (Soros) "

    Thanks to Craig Murray for this. Link to Craig Murray :

    I will back this up with some common sense thinking re Putin and the Chinese leader from the Saker
    Link to the Saker:

    "" snip""

    " Third, neither Putin nor Xi are clueless, ignorant 3rd world leader à la
    Bokassa or Idi Amin. They have the full use of advanced intelligence
    services which would immediately tell them that the “regular” offshoring is
    just a trap which will, sooner or later, ensnare you. In fact, Putin
    specifically warned Russian businessmen against using such services – does
    anybody believe that he warns them and then does exactly what he warned

    Now, let us assume the worst: Putin and Xi are corrupt to the bone they
    want to keep their money in the West. Why in the world would they do
    that through some well-known and easily tracked “friends of the family”
    when they could use the services of their national intelligence agencies or,
    just to make the tale even more sexy, to use the contact Russian and
    Chinese security services (really) do have with the Russian Mafia and the
    Chinese Triads? The truth is that both of these men could very easily and
    safely use such contacts (neither the Russian nor the Chinese Mafia would
    *ever* pass the opportunity to be of use to the Top Leader) to hide any
    amount of money. This being said, rather than using such exotic “spy
    novel” schemes, a much simpler option for them would be to simply take
    control of a highly profitable company or resource *inside* Russia/China.
    If you were a putatively totally corrupt Putin or Xi, would you rather keep
    your money in a US controlled jurisdiction or simply take control of, say, a
    nickel or molybdenum mining corporation?

    ""end Snip""

    The longer this goes for the more information about the leaks and the background of who, what and why comes to light.

    There is an old Saying which I have forgotten he origins of and have found true many times in my life.
    Saying : TRUTH WILL OUT
    Simple 3 words, yet, oh so powerful.

    1. Thanks Gordon:
      your point number 1 is how I was viewing the Panama paper news- then Aferrismoon brought up such an interesting aspect.

      I did see the news regarding Panama papers as a psyop
      and I am going to read all your other points in short order- as I scanned them they look very pertinent

      and btw: your comment was in spam- why I ask?
      When there are others that should go there and I have to delete the useless crap (trolls and other stuff) But no google lets that garbage through!

    2. You asked me months ago when the US deployed f15E to Turkey why I wondered about the northern border? Keep in mind it was the Russian base murder which allegedly morphed into the anti austerity Yerevan protests movement (same base murder in Tajik, but with limited effect).

      Aside: note the renewed AWAC 'deployment' to track long range targets? THis as the US is pressing another fire base in iraq while Erdogan at center of another data 'leak'?

      Go back to the Russian joint exercises with Azeri circa summer 2015 juxtaposed against the adversarial removal of the Russian radar back in 2012.Note the current progress on Caspian zone deal. Also note the Azeri nexus to Israel which was so much the rage with the FM visit a few years ago has been subordinated.[pointer]=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=40927&tx_ttnews[backPid]=49&cHash=a28a7d7340d10511efc95b01016a71b6#.Vwapo0dSpPY

      Far more recently, the Rig explosion and the bank heist - Moldova comes to mind (which of course makes those shell companies in panama kind of a cruel joke. $2B vanishes in a series of Scottish shell companies...then the Bangladesh money goes missing in the Philippines via the NYFed.

      Brzezinski discussion of the pipes seems relevant especially in wake of IMF leak on Greece and Germany denying a haircut, again. Greece PM like Austria who is deploying as you point out to Italian border, just said roll back the Russian sanctions. And the Gazprom backed pipe across the Balkans / Greece was just resurrected; south stream talk escalating.

      That Russian and Italian nexus, including the Vatican...again

      The azeri escalation comes days after Russia was asked about deploying nukes to Crimea. And the Turkish PM reported in country end of Feb (26th). US backing of the trans Adriatic pipe does help illuminate the attempted Macedonia coup.

      As an aside Belarus just extended its radars in joint with Russia. Judging from events in Armenia considering their recent agreement, it might be prudent to keep an eye on Belarus with the US deploying mechanized alongside new airbases (to house the report yesterday of F15 heading for Eastern Europe).

      It also bears keeping in mind the Russian move to revamp the interior ministry and create a national guard considering the Austrians and Serbians choking off the Balkan flow. Those Greek refugees have to go somewhere. And the ferry operation or some portion thereof is more than evident in the refugees showing up the Russian northern border.

      Also keep in mind the Azeri minority in Iran and those protests late last year owing to a racial slur. Then months later a few Bangladeshis were gunned down on the border (Iran) following the raid on the jihadi in the southern town around the time of the Azeri elections whcih the OECD condemned.




    3. But the coup de grace may be this comment on 10MAR16

      “Russian Ties in Central Asia Threaten US Interests - CENTCOM Chief Nominee. Votel further argued that Russian security partnerships with former Soviet states in Central Asia "make it difficult for the United States" to deepen defense ties in the region, which he described as a "key US interest."

      And the Chess master himself:
      Brzezinski: “New violent clashes in the disputed regions could prove dangerous for Moscow especially given the fact that important oil and natural gas pipelines run through the region”

      Which of course recalls Tymoshenko - now "rising in the polls" and moving into opposition - threat to set the Caucasus on fire several years ago. Only a few months ago Putin ordered the FSB to be vigilant for those outside forces seeking to creates instability ahead of elections. The NATO press on Georgia and the Pankisi ISIS leaks also factor especially into the Chechnya leadership transition as the battalion fights on in Ukraine...

      From yesterday...
      "It is regrettable that Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande knelt down to US demands. Although any independent analyst can use the facts and come to the conclusion that it was US action that led a coup in Ukraine on February 20, 2014, which in turn finally resulted in the atmosphere of the Cold War, [which has been] used by Washington to deploy a tank brigade in Eastern Europe," he said. - geopolitics expert Jean-Bernard Pinatel

    4. OECD boycotts presidential election 01NOV15

    5. Rig explosion Dec 6, 2015

    6. Dec 21, 2015

      Azerbaijani manat collapses after government abandons dollar peg

    7. Jun18 2015
      The great Moldova bank robbery: BBC: It says loans worth $1bn were transferred in just two days to a series of UK- and Hong Kong-registered companies - companies whose ultimate owners are unknown.

      Nov 30, 2015
      Armenia hackers deface Azerbaijani Central Bank website, leak data online

      Dec 6, 2015
      Ex-Chairman Of Azerbaijan's Biggest Bank Detained For Fraud

      Reminiscent of the Iran hacks of JPM? circa 2012?

      March 2016
      Bangladesh central bank says U.S. account hacked: Fed denies breach

  5. anonymous- I see there is talk of a coup in Azerbaijan..
    Or has been talk of a coup?- wondering now if this was a pressure tactic of sorts? (haven't checked all your links,as of yet) what do you think?

    1. 08SEP15
      Aliyev: 'Maidan' was being prepared in Azerbaijan, money for which was brought by 'fifth column' NGOs Interfax


    "Amid the government’s worry about a possible coup, the Azerbaijani currency has since December 2015 lost about one-third of its value against the U.S. dollar"

    "Frozen conflicts are the perfect incubator for such security dilemmas. Given constant animosity and distrust, opponents can easily make “worst-case assumptions about each other’s intentions,”

    Frozen conflicts can very easily be unfrozen-via manipulation from outside parties- something the political analyst doesn't mention and doesn't want us to consider

  7. The Panama Papers

    for anyone who may be interested :)

  8. Most of the people, when discussing Mackinder's theories in relation to present day politics, overlook the most important statement of his 1904 essay, which underlay all the moves since then:

    “True that the Trans-Siberian Railway is still a single and precarious line of communication, but the century will not be old before all Asia is covered with Railways. The spaces within the Russian Empire and Mongolia are so vast, and their potentialities in population, wheat, cotton, fuel and metals so incalculably great, that it is inevitable that a vast economic world, more or less apart, will there develop inaccessible to oceanic commerce.”

    Mackinder was indicating the directions that the British Empire policy should follow: permanently putting spokes in the wheels of the gravy trains and blowing up the railways.
    Now the nightmare of Mackinder became a reality. One Belt, One Road, high speed Eurasian trains, Eurasia Economic Union, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Collective Security Treaty Organization, will make "that vast economic world inaccessible to oceanic commerce".
    Now Armenia is a member of EEU and CSTO. You fill the dots.

  9. Hi Penny

    You will need a cuppa and a sandwich for this one it is a bit long with all the links but worth it. Some of what I have mentioned plus a lot more.


  10. Hi (again) Penny,
    oooppppsss Sorry Penny link didn't take on first press

    1. Thanks Gordon! I did read it,but, forget to get back here and tell you -doh!