Sunday, March 19, 2017

Winds of War Blow From Israel's Borders..

The winds of war are blowing on Israel’s borders

Analysis: The Israeli strike in Syria, the Russian and Syrian responses, and the flare-up in Gaza, are bringing Israel one step closer to a military collision. The relative calm along the borders in recent years, which has become a symbol of security stability and deterrence, is gradually wearing out. 
The two military incidents over the weekend, both on the Syrian front and on the Gazan front—although unrelated—point to the fact that the relative calm along the borders in the past few years, which has become a symbol of security stability and Israel's deterrence abilities, is gradually wearing out.
 So far, the logic behind IDF operations along the borders was that Israel must do everything in its power to avoid a military conflict.(Delusional tripe) This led to the creation of an equation: On the one hand, Israel acted over the weekend to curb the transfer of long-range and accurate weapons from Syria to Hezbollah and to damage Hamas's infrastructure and capabilities in the Gaza Strip; on the other hand, Israel made sure not to push the enemy into a corner that would force it to respond in a way that could lead to an all-out conflict.
In recent weeks, however, Israel itself has been putting this equation to the test. It seems as if there is someone on our side who won’t be too sorry to see the security issue reclaim the headlines.

The weekend events in the north indicate that Israel is striking in Syria not only to curb the Iranian arms convoys to Hezbollah, but also to demonstrate its presence in Syria and make it clear, especially to the Russians, that there will be no agreement in Syria without Israel's input.
According to the Syrian army’s announcement, the Israel Air Force attacked the T4 airport, between Homs and Palmyra, a particularly sensitive area as far as the Russians are concerned, as the Syrian military recently completed a successful attack in the area with massive Russian aid. The airstrike and the interception of the Syrian anti-aircraft projectile raised the stakes for Israel on the Syrian poker table. We are one step closer to a military escalation on the Syrian front. Both sides have climbed up a high tree and are unwilling to budge.
 Syria is successful in the area with the help of Russia. Israel strikes to assist their terrorists.
Russia summons the Israeli ambassador...

Russian Summons Israeli Envoy- Demands Clarification On Syria Strikes

Israel can’t climb down that tree because, according to its military policy, every show of weakness will harm its interests and give the Iranians a foothold in the Golan Heights and a pier at the port of Latakia. Such a pier will turn the supply of arms to Hezbollah from a drizzle into a deluge.
If the Syrians fail to climb down the tree and continue threatening Israel’s freedom of action against the weapon convoys to Hezbollah, a clash with the Syrian army—not just in the Golan Heights, but also deep within Syria—will be inevitable.
Israel is clearly taking a threatening posture-  Wanting Syria to "climb down" in the defence of their nation. Threatening to go "deep within Syria" This should surprise no one at all. Israel has been positively drooling as the prospect of delivering a heavy blow to Syria
There is no wonder there is a nervous silence coming out of Moscow. Such incidents could have far-reaching ramifications on the agreement the Russians are trying to establish in Syria.

The Israeli ambassador in Moscow does not usually get summoned right before Shabbat unless there is unusual concern and anger on the Russian side. It’s quite possible that the Russians feel there is a gap between what they heard from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in his meetings with President Vladimir Putin and Israeli actions on the ground. This isn’t another operational misunderstanding discussed as part of the coordination between the two armies, the Israeli and the Russian, or between the two defense ministries. This is a diplomatic crisis.
By saying there is a gap between what Putin heard from Netanyahu and theactual Israeli actions it's very obvious Israel deceived Russia. Instead of admitting that Israeli leadership lied this is written to imply Putin heard incorrectly. Brinkmanship? You bet

In general, Syria's decision to launch the improved S-200 model, which the Russians recently sold them, is surprising. The S-200 is a heavy, immobile anti-aircraft missile, which can reach a range of 300 kilometers, and is not meant for intercepting fighter jets. Furthermore, Russian military experts said recently that Israel was using electronic warfare systems that completely “blind” the Syrian batteries and disrupt their communication systems.
Israel was surprised that Syria dared. Russia had informed Syria previously that Israel was using electronic warfare against Syria, to "blind" the missile batteries- Which begs the question: How did Syria get this missile launched in a timely fashion?
As far as we know, the Russians did not provide the Syrians with any information on the Israeli strike, which adds to the ambiguity of the decision to launch the Syrian interceptor. It’s also unclear who gave the order in Syria. It’s possible that the decision to launch the missile was not made in the presidential office, and that the Syrian military echelon claimed responsibility for the launch in hindsight.
As far as they know Russia didn't, but, perhaps Russia did provide the Syrians with the information. Israel is unsure.
The working assumption in Israel is that the Syrian missile was directed at some target—but not at the Air Force fighter aircraft, as they were no longer there. The Israeli Air Force is now investigating what was actually shot down by the Arrow missile. It might have been a large fragment of the S-200 that exploded in the air after missing its original target.
The IDF had no early warning about the Syrian missile launch. For years, the teams operating the Arrow 2 interceptor have been waiting for a real-time test—and they passed it successfully. This is also an impressive achievement for the Israeli defense industry. The Arrow 2 intercepted a ballistic object at a range of more than 100 kilometers, beyond Israel’s borders. This is a clear message to the Iranians for the day they decide to fire Shahab missile at Israel.
The IDF had no early warning that Syria had launched the missile. Interesting.
Curious on how exactly early warning is defined? Their technology?Their spies? 
In Gaza, there has been a significant spike in the number of rockets launched at Israel by Salafist groups. Israel is using this as an excuse to increase its aerial activity against critical military infrastructures in the strip. But this back-and-forth game of ping-pong is taking place during a dramatic change of leadership in Gaza. Yahya Sanwar, who will become the Hamas leader in Gaza in April, is a former student of Abdullah Azzam, al-Qaeda’s spiritual teacher. Granted, he is giving up the prison and underground manners for political visits to civil institutions in the strip, dressed in a suit, but he is not committed to the alleged signs of moderation conveyed by the Hamas leadership in the Gulf states.

Israeli officials estimate that Hamas’ failure to respond to the airstrikes should not be taken as a sign of political moderation, but rather as a sign the organization has simply not yet completed its preparations for another round of fighting. This doesn’t guarantee that Israeli pressure, which will humiliate the leadership in Gaza or lead to casualties, won’t drag Hamas into an armed conflict with the weapons it has accumulated so far.

Israel sending messages..

IDF kills militia commander in drone strike

Yasser Hussien Assayed and his vehicle after the drone strike
Gaza & Sinai

Meanwhile the slow acceleration of the shadow war in Gaza continues to escalate.

day before Syria strikes
Israeli Forces Target Hamas After Projectile From Gaza Hits Country

Cross border Sinai attack


  1. I see news of Egypt being unable to get the Sinai under control...

    "The Egyptian government is struggling to counter an increasingly violent insurgency in the Sinai Peninsula targeting Egyptian police, security forces and Christians.

    Several militant groups, including Ansar Beit al-Maqdis, which has pledged allegiance to the Islamic State group, are controlling large swaths of Sinai, which borders the Gaza Strip and Israel, and have established rule separate from the government in Cairo."

    What will Israel do?

    From Earlier:



  1. What will Lebanon do?

    Announce the Russians won the bloc adjacent to Tamar..

    1. Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman on March 19 threatened to destroy Syrian air defense systems after they fired ground-to-air missiles at Israeli warplanes carrying out strikes. Hurriyet

      Will "syria" that the Idf planes were lit up and tracked including the recent golan strike and airport attack?

    2. Watch out for myster drones...

      When Israel starts shooting at Russian aircraft, it's time to worry. But that's what happened last month, when a Russian drone accidentally—or allegedly accidentally—flew from Syria into northern Israel. Israeli forces attempted to shoot down the drone, marking the first time that Israel has fired on Russian forces operating in Syria.However, Israel also appears incompetent. It fired not one, but three missiles at a drone that probably wasn't taking evasive action. None hit.

      Hezbollah chief threatens Israel's Dimona nuclear reactor

      Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah told the movement's al-Manar television network that the drone was made in Iran and had flown over "sensitive sites" in Israel. Israeli fighter planes shot down the drone north of the Negev desert after it entered from the Mediterranean.

    3. Tbilisi says Russia has placed extra S-300 missile systems in Abkhazia - Interfax

    4. Saakashvili's party members involved in Batumi riots - rights activist




    7. “Putin sent a clear message,” said Bashar Jaafari, speaking on Syrian television. “The fact is that the Israeli ambassador [to Russia] was summoned for a conversation only a day after he submitted his credentials [to the Russian Foreign Ministry last Thursday], and was told categorically that this game is over.”
      read more:

    8. "Any military operation in Syria without the approval of the Syrian government is illegal, and I said if there’s any troops on the Syrian soil, this is an invasion, whether to liberate al-Raqqa or any other place. This is first. Second, we all know that the coalition has never been serious about fighting Daesh or the terrorists, so we have to think about the real intention of the whole plan, if there’s a plan to liberate al-Raqqa," Assad told reporters.


    9. Russia response to the Turkish Crimea?

      PTV: Turkey says it does not recognize the 2014 reintegration of the Black Sea Crimean Peninsula into the Russian Federation, claiming the move contradicts international law.


    11. raqqa scenarios (another aspect of Alleged Russian YPG training)

    12. hey anonymous- thanks, I'm going to get to the Russian YPG training- some of which has been clarified by Russia

    13. “The flag of Kurdistan was raised in Istanbul and Ankara. Governor of the Kirkuk Province Najmaldin Karim: "Why shouldn’t it be raised in Kirkuk. Kirkuk is a disputed area. I understand the sensitivity regarding the flag of Kurdistan. I hope the provincial council soon rules a decision in this regard,” said Karim. The move led to strong condemnation by the Iraqi Turkmen Front (ITF) whose leader Arshad al-Salihi said the Governor “was playing with fire.” days ago...

      Flashback to 2014 and the Iran entry

      "The Kurds have taken advantage of the current situation. They seized Kirkuk and they have other plans to swallow other areas," Mohammed Sadoun said.

    14. Russia denies reports of building military base with Syrian Kurds

    15. Controversial PUK-Gorran deal imperiled amid row over implementation

      Relevant as Barzani threatens PKK in Sinjar and shuttles to Turkey ahead of raqqa. With Russia off take deal in Kurdistan, what role is Russia playing in the Rajava peshmerga?

  2. Penny, I just finally found Dave McGowan's 2014 WBAI(NYC) interview. Perhaps you have heard it. If not I present it to you now. The first hour was Dave's best as far as I am concerned. The second hour not so crystal clear as the first hour.
    Second hour and other WBAI interviews here
    Sorry for the off topic :(

    1. Hey Peter: Thanks and no I have not heard this one, cause this is the first I had even heard of this interview. I'm going to listen tomorrow- Much appreciated.

      I miss Dave McGowan- I listened to sooo many interviews for so many years, read all of his books and then he's gone

      I just finished reading Jay Dyer's book and he references Dave's work from the Laurel Canyon and Programmed to Kill books- Told hubby I thought Dave would be thrilled, humbled, but thrilled.

      Btw if your interested Jay's book Esoteric Hollywood is excellent- Some familiar territory, but, much new ground covered too- great read- I should do a quick post on it?

  3. "IDF kills militia commander in drone strike"

    Hey Penny
    According to AMNews and other sources that man was a civilian.

    Just another Jewish crime.

    1. hello someone23; yes he was a member of a civilian militia, but, indeed he was very much a civilian

      Mentioned in the Ynet article

      "a part-time volunteer"

      I personally believe the assassination was a message- 'we can get you, any one of you'

      Sounds just like something the Israeli's would thrive one