Thursday, August 9, 2018

How Russia, Turkey, and Iran are Going to Avoid a Battle for Idlib

 I've added an update at the bottom- a map, which should be very helpful to understanding the situation on the ground in and around Idlib- scroll down

Following up on: Sochi: Iran, Russia & Turkey Talk Syria. Refugee Returns & Idlib

Where I'd commented:
Finally, Idlib

Where there is this idea, being presented, that Syria will take Idlib back by force!
I do not think this is realistic. Or necessary.  Not at this time, anyway.
Considering their are three Astana partners involved in the process.
Here's hoping Idlib can be resolved diplomatically.
Going by some of the reports I've read today it looks as if Iran, Russia and Turkey are trying to AVOID a battle for Idlib.

If Syria were to simply rush in and battle for Idlib as some persons suggest, the US and their PKK allies would take advantage of the chaos that would surely result. And Rojova will extend ever closer to the Mediterranean. Which is what the US and Israel both want!

It's really much more beneficial for regional stability that the Astana partners work together to deal with the Idlib situation in a more measured, careful manner.  That's my opinion. And to my mind it makes much more sense for the actual preservation of Syrian sovereignty.


The UN Senior Advisor for Syria Jan Egeland says Russia, Turkey, and Iran told UN humanitarian meeting that they would do their utmost to avoid a battle for Idlib.
Probably small de-escalation areas will be established, and full controlled humanitarian corridors will be set up.
By these actions, civilians will be supported with medical aid, water, and food.
Currently, Syrian AF leaflets messages calling to end the war and the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) is trying to negotiate with small opposing groups and villages throughout Idlib province.

I had left a comment and link to the Daily Mail regarding this news at Syper's- where far too many commenters seem to want a confusing, messy battle in Idlib- Which will only open the doors to the USrael regional remake. As stated above. Every opportunity provided, any misstep will be taken advantage of by the US/PKK parked in eastern Syria. It's what they are waiting for.

Here's another link to news of leaflets being dropped
"The warning came as government helicopters dropped leaflets over towns in Idlib’s eastern countryside urging people to surrender, an AFP correspondent said.
“The war is nearing an end … We are calling on you to join the local reconciliations, as many of our people in Syria did,” said the leaflets, which were stamped with the military’s seal.
Such surrender deals typically see rebels hand over territory to government troops in exchange for a halt to shelling, the return of state institutions, and a chance to either join regime forces or be bussed out of the area"
Back to Inside Syria Media 
In this regard, it should not be forgotten the success of the SAA in al-Suweida province as well as Assad’s amnesty to the opposing forces and terrorists.
Meanwhile, Advisor said the United Nations would ask Turkey to continue to open its borders to civilians if a battle broke out in Idlib.
Turkey asserts that it is working to keep Idlib a safe area for Syrians along with the northern countryside of Aleppo, and warns European countries of the possibility of massive waves of displacement towards them may not be able to stop them.
My hope is that Idlib is cleared in as orderly a fashion as possible all things considered. 

UPDATE Begins:

I'm including a map here showing the outposts manned by the 3 Astana Partners in and around Idlib 

 MAP: Iranian , Turkish and Russian troops encircling Idlib province

The Russian ministry of defense has published its own battlefield map for the northwestern Syrian province of Idlib, highlighting the Iranian , Turkish and Russian outposts on the province borders.

1- The yellow triangles: the Turkish observation points which were established during the last few months from the western countryside of Aleppo, to the mountain of Eshtabraq in the far south of Idlib countryside.

2 – The red triangles: the Russian observation points, which will be created in front of the points of the Turkish army.

3 – Green Triangles, the Iranian observation points, which will be established intensively in the southern countryside of Aleppo, in addition to two points in the countryside of Hama and rural Idlib.

From earlier: Canada's own Donald Trump/Chrystia Freeland and her twitter diplomacy

Chrystia Freeland Channels Trump’s Twitter “Diplomacy”- Revisiting Canada’s 15 Billion Dollar Saudi Arms Deal


Trudeau's Gun Control Ideology Doesn't Apply to Ukraine: Sniper Rifles Ready to Go

 Understanding the targeting of Turkey:

US Sanctions Turkey Over the arrest of CIA Pastor Brunson


  1. Penny, thanks for the link. Just in case you haven't had time to see this, it's deja vu all over again, and this time it's Trump and Russia - over Novichok of all things!

    Russian officials reacted with outrage and markets slumped on Thursday morning following the announcement of tough new US sanctions over Russia’s alleged use of a nerve agent in the Salisbury attack.

    1. And this: Dozens dead in Yemen as bus carrying children hit by airstrike
      Fabian Hamilton MP, shadow minister for peace and disarmament, called on Theresa May and Jeremy Hunt to suspend all arms export licenses to Saudi Arabia until a ceasefire is agreed in Yemen. “The idea that British weapons could have been used in this attack, in which innocent children have died, is sickening,” he said.

      Funny, they didn't think of that BEFORE arming the Saudis. Nor did Canada before contracting to sell the Saudis combat vehicles, euphemized as "jeeps".

    2. Yah, I covered the 15 billion dollars arms deal 'we' aka Canada has with Saudi Arabia in the post that links to yours-

      And when those sniper rifles are used to kill civilians in Ukraine and they will be used for that purpose as well as others (think of the snipers firing into the crowds when Ukraine was initially destabilized) What will Canada's Donald Trump Chrystia have to say on twitter- will she condemn her own decision?
      She'll put out another smokescreen, of course

  2. I've updated the post with a map published by the Russian Defense Ministry- it shows the location of the Astana partners post surrounding Idlib- I'm certain that observation includes patrol runs by all parties- that makes sense to me!

  3. Bus the terrorists to the boarder and send them across, back to all them that armed them.