Wednesday, August 29, 2018

Sept. 01- Is A Syrian Suez Approaching?

Interesting oped from Peter Ford @ MEE

Keeping in mind this repetition on anniversary dates that seems to present over and over.
September 1 will mark the 62nd anniversary of the secret formal request by the government of France to Israel for Israel to attack Egypt. 
The plan was for France, soon joined by the UK, to invade Egypt on the pretext of safeguarding the Suez Canal, in hopes of precipitating the overthrow of President Gamal Abdel Nasser.
The Tripartite Aggression, as the Arabs call it, was duly triggered on 29 October 1956, when Israel invaded. 
September 2018 is likely to witness another tripartite aggression based on pretexts and plotting, this time involving the US alongside the UK and France. The victim now is Syria. 

Chemical weapons allegations

The three governments in April staged a rehearsal for the upcoming performance, responding with bombing raids to the alleged use of chemical weapons in Douma. While Plan A for the raids involved heavy attacks on presidential offices and armed forces command and control centres, President Donald Trump was reportedly talked down from this by Secretary of Defence James Mattis, concerned by the prospect of possible clashes with Russia and risks to US forces stationed in Syria.
Aspects of the Douma operation conspired to make it likely that Plan A would be given a fresh run, which is now imminent.
From the point of view of the tripartite group, they painted themselves into a corner of bombing more heavily, because that is exactly what they promised to do after the Douma round in the event of further use of chemical weapons. 
The worst fears were not realised. It proved possible to bomb multiple sites without many civilian casualties or, more importantly, any significant military counteractions by Russia, Iran or Syria itself. And thanks to pliant media and legislators, it proved easy to bomb without having to go to the United Nations first, consult legislatures, or allow an inspection by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW).
The bombing increased Trump’s approval ratings dramatically, and did no harm to the fortunes of UK Prime Minister Theresa May or French President Emmanuel Macron. 
From the point of view of the militants opposed to President Bashar al-Assad, the lesson can only have been that a further incident was something devoutly to be wished for, if not actually engineered.

Ignoring evidence

It is not necessary to rehash the mountain of evidence pointing to the probability that Douma was fabricated. Suffice to say that OPCW inspectors, in their interim report presented on 6 July, stated that they had found no evidence that chemical weapons such as nerve agents had been used, and that the evidence for the use of chlorine as a weapon was inconclusive. 
Helped again by pliant media and sleepy legislators, the tripartite governments have simply ignored this assessment, continuing brazenly to claim that President Assad was responsible.

The joint statement of the US, UK and France issued on 21 August, threatening Syria with intervention if chemical weapons are used again, was peremptory. As regardless of grammar as of facts, the three said they “reaffirm [their] resolve to preventing the use of chemical weapons by the Syrian regime, and for holding them accountable … As we have demonstrated, we will respond appropriately to any further use.”
Oblivious to the amassing in Idlib of a jihadi strike force of thousands of fighters, spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the powers claimed piously to be “gravely concerned over reports of a military offensive by the Syrian regime against civilians and civilian infrastructure”.
Possibly calling to mind that their planned action will be illegal, they proclaimed that “the unchecked use of chemical weapons by any state presents an unacceptable threat to all states”, laying the groundwork for a flimsy legal defence.

The precedents of Iraq and Libya

Were there any doubt that skulduggery was afoot, it was removed by media reports, based on Russian statements and briefings, of the White Helmets being on manoeuvres in the vicinity of Jisr al-Shughur, and the transfer to a nearby village of canisters of chlorine, under the direction of English-speaking special forces or contractors.
Simultaneously, reports appeared of the US bolstering its naval presence in the Gulf and land forces in Iraq on the borders with Syria.
Russia has moved more of its naval forces into Syrian territorial waters in response to the warning of imminent action, say reports.
How could anybody be so credulous as to believe a conspiracy theory like this, and from such tainted sources? Was it for a moment believable that the British or the Americans could be so duplicitous as to create for themselves a pretext to bomb a weak country in the Middle East? No need to go back as far as Suez to answer that; a quick recap of events in Iraq (weapons of mass destruction again) and Libya (baselessly alleged imminent massacres in Benghazi) would suffice.
But surely, it might be thought, wise counsels would prevail in Washington, London and Paris, given that Operation Douma did no great harm, but only because the scenario was pre-cooked with the Russians, on the basis that the targets were limited? 
Given also that the Iranians, with little to lose now that US sanctions are back on, would react if Assad and the Syrian state structure were threatened existentially? Or given that the 2,000 US troops in northeastern Syria and the al-Tanf enclave were hostages as well as tripwires, as exposed as any US troops ever were in neighbouring Anbar?
A few more paragraphs at the above link- 
His theory is the same as the one I wrote about in the post dated August 26/2018

Syria: US Signals To Russia They Will Hit Syria if Chemical Weapons are Deployed

 Is it possible, should there be a 'chemical weapons' attack in Syria, that there will be in automatic, immediate attack launched by the coalition? 
No pretext of going through the UN to add the aura of legitimacy to that which was desired all along? 
No trying to figure out if a chemical attack will have actually happened or who did the deed?  
Nothing like that. 
Just a claim of chemicals weapons use and boom- the US/coalition hits?

6 comments:

  1. Russia just called for growing partnership in Egypt. Russia backs Egypt as North Africa Regional Force. - Interfax
    Recent ex diplo arrest in Egypt who calling for coup. Then the Sinai ramp. Keep those Russian alleged deployments in mind alongside the Egypt gas exports. Israeli operations in Gaza and the offshore as Egypt moves to export.

    https://www.news24.com/Africa/News/egyptian-who-called-for-referendum-is-arrested-lawyer-20180823
    https://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/15/world/15aid.html


    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-russia-libya-exclusive/exclusive-russia-appears-to-deploy-forces-in-egypt-eyes-on-libya-role-sources-idUSKBN16K2RY

    Egypt will stop importing gas in October and will start exporting it in January 2019, Petroleum Minister Tarek el-Molla has said

    Interesting the Russians have put their own military police on the Golan as the UN forces return
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-golan-russia/russia-to-deploy-military-police-on-golan-heights-idUSKBN1KN1CD


    Russia recently announced it would up cooperation and called for Egypt to lead effort to police North Africa (AFRICOM and Macron call of a NATO of the SAHEL). Rumnored US tunesian base and the patrol boats(like weapons dumps into Lebanon)
    https://tn.usembassy.gov/tunisian-navy-receives-two-u-s-patrol-boats/
    https://thearabweekly.com/tunisia-says-no-nato-presence-planned-operations-centre
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/sunday/588897/Britain-send-Special-Forces-fight-ISIS-terorrists-Tunisia
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tunisia-security-libya-idUSKCN0W34LW
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/tunisia/8263259/Swedish-boar-hunters-beaten-amid-Tunisia-chaos.html
    https://sputniknews.com/military/201804231063839386-us-building-huge-drone-base/

    New western front led by a egypt mil defector
    Militant threat emerges in Egyptian desert, opening new front in terrorism fight

    ReplyDelete
  2. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/militant-threat-emerges-in-egyptian-desert-opening-new-front-in-terrorism-fight/2018/03/13/1b24e776-1653-11e8-930c-45838ad0d77a_story.html?utm_term=.f80294076637


    Note:
    Though relatively small, Ansar al-Islam is made up of highly trained former Egyptian army officers and soldiers who became radicalized, said analysts. The group is believed to have tried to assassinate Egypt’s interior minister in 2013; two years later, the group used a car bomb to kill the country’s chief prosecutor, according to security officials. They continue to recruit through networks in the army, analysts said.

    Remeber when
    The US-trained commander of Tajikistan's elite police force just defected to ISIS
    https://www.businessinsider.com/the-us-trained-commander-of-tajikistans-elite-police-force-just-defected-to-isis-2015-5


    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-sahel/macron-france-ready-to-strengthen-force-in-sahel-fighting-islamists-idUSKBN1EH0JX

    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=7&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiPkNT8w5LdAhUZGjQIHV-MD1YQFjAGegQIARAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.aljazeera.com%2Fnews%2F2017%2F12%2Fmacron-calls-sahel-force-armed-groups-171214044822949.html&usg=AOvVaw3dk-ZPwciLdmwKUZ8D2Min

    Alarming attempts...
    https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/fikraforum/view/russias-alarming-attempts-to-establish-influence-in-egypt

    Nexus to Saudi Arabia and the vanishing MBS...


    And those mysterious attacks on the US Destroyer in the Southern Red Sea Straits..
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-usa-ship-idUSKCN12A082

    And the Saudis
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security/saudi-arabia-halts-oil-exports-in-red-sea-lane-after-houthi-attacks-idUSKBN1KF0XN


    US going to hang the Yemen op around "Salman": exit strategy amidst growning war crimes allegations
    https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/27/politics/us-saudi-arabia-warning-yemen/index.html

    IPO "pull"
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-aramco-ipo-king-exclusive/exclusive-saudi-king-tipped-the-scale-against-aramco-ipo-plans-idUSKCN1LC1MX

    Calls for coup? Or cleanup?
    https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/05/22/562533/Saudi-Arabia-palace-coup-terrorist-threat-world-Mohammed-bin-Salman-Khaled-bin-Farhan




    Where is Nayef
    https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/exclusive-senior-figures-tortured-and-beaten-saudi-purge-1489501498

    ReplyDelete
  3. Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG) Ibrahim Jodran and Moamar Gaddafi's tribal loyalists as well as Chadian rebels have been teaming up. "Jodran met with former Haftar's forces leader in western Libyan district of Wershiffana, Omar Tantoush, and other military officers who are loyal to Gaddafi in order to form a brigade of Gaddafi loyalist from different tribes in southern Libya." The New Arab reported. Omar Tantoush defected from Haftar's so-called army months ago.
    https://www.libyaobserver.ly/news/libyas-oil-crescent-region-bracing-new-armed-conflict

    More western egypt border attacks coming?
    Was the Hafter aircraft landing premature

    Khalifa Haftar makes triumphant return to Libya after rumours of his death
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/27/khalifa-haftar-makes-triumphant-return-libya-rumours-death/
    https://www.cnn.com/2016/09/02/asia/uzbekistan-president-islam-karimov-dead/index.html

    An Afghan Sahel playbook to compliment the AQIM - Gadaffi Loyalists

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-libya-russia-haftar/east-libya-strongman-visits-russian-aircraft-carrier-in-mediterranean-ria-idUSKBN14V1T2

    Libya has an Erdogan problem and Egypt on the wrong side?


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. thank you anonymous linkie person :)
      I'm going to read as much as I can today and tomorrow
      We're having company this week end so I have lots to do to get ready-
      But am trying to keep up

      Delete
  4. anonymous linkie person
    just got one of the comments out of spam!
    sorry, but, our daughter was home- but she's gone and I'm back!!
    :))

    ReplyDelete
  5. "More western egypt border attacks coming?"

    An alleged embassy suicide bomber...

    https://foxbaltimore.com/news/nation-world/egypt-officials-say-suspected-bomb-found-near-us-embassy


    https://www.sciencealert.com/ancient-egypt-tell-el-samara-neolithic-village-5-000-bce-predate-pharaohs

    ReplyDelete

TROLLS &SPAM WILL BE DELETED WITHOUT HESITATION
KEEP IT RELEVANT. NO PERSONAL ATTACKS