Wednesday, October 7, 2020

Herd Immunity to COVID-19 Possible After 3-10% of Population Get Sick, Russian Scientists Say

 The linked articles reminded me of a previous comment..

It all depends.
Herd immunity is variable and contingent.
For me, the debate over Herd Immunity from COVID crisis inception was the glaring signal our rulers were playing us. The notion that 100% of a population has to be inoculated to achieve control over a disease was always hysterical propaganda. And learned men like Fauci and Redfield propagated this propaganda despite once knowing this principle or forgot it, purposefully maybe. Herd immunity, depending on a variety of conditions and disease characteristics, can be achieved when as little as 4 to 6 percent of the population achieves immunity.

Perhaps Kdus232425 and others might find this interesting? I surely did!

Sputnik

 A new model of COVID-19 spread developed by specialists at the Joint Institute for High Temperatures of the Russian Academy of Sciences shows that herd immunity to the coronavirus could be obtained within a given population after only 3-10 percent of the people get sick.
According to the institute's lead scientist Sergey Trigger, the new model of the spread of COVID-19 takes four parameters into account: the number of people within a given population, the number of potentially dangerous contacts an infected individual has per day, the probability of getting infected and the span of the illness.

    "Having studied the statistical data and existing interpretations, we realised that the model of the spread of the virus should take into account the presence of the minimum duration of the disease, and also that the maximum infectivity falls not on the first, but on the following days of the disease", Trigger told Sputnik.

The SIS and SIR models currently used to describe the spread of the coronavirus are not as accurate as the one developed by the Joint Institute for High Temperatures of the Russian Academy of Sciences . The new model takes into account various quarantine measures and restrictions, by using official statistics.

Rewriting the above paragraph for brevity and clarity

The model developed by the Joint Institute for High Temperatures of the Russian Academy of Science is more accurate then the models currently in use.

    "It turned out that it is possible to significantly reduce the rate of increase in [coronavirus] infections and achieve herd immunity with a significantly lower percentage of cases, down to 3-10 percent of the population", scientists at the Joint Institute for High Temperatures told Sputnik.
From 3-10 to 15 percent. Either way herd immunity is established at much lower levels then the vaccine pushing media is reporting

Is the COVID-19 Herd Immunity Threshold as Low as 15 Percent?

The machine learning epidemic model run by Youyang Gu and his colleagues estimate that around 16 percent of Americans have already been infected with the COVID-19 coronavirus.
                           
That could be good news if a brief preprint study published yesterday by a team of Scottish researchers that calculates a COVID-19 herd immunity threshold of 15 percent pans out. The Scottish researchers achieve their result by modifying the epidemiological model in a June study in Nature that found that non-pharmaceutical interventions, specifically lockdowns, had averted millions of COVID-19 deaths in Europe.

In their analysis, the Scottish researchers relax the assumption of homogeneity to allow for individual variation in connectivity and susceptibility and apply a more recent lower IFR estimate of 0.3 per 100 infected people. When they compare their modified model's results with actual data on deaths from 11 European countries they find that "a value of 0.3% for the IFR give 15% for the average herd immunity threshold." They further note that "models that allow for heterogeneity favor build-up of herd immunity rather than non-pharmaceutical interventions as the main factor underlying the early slowing and reversal of the COVID-19 epidemic in Europe. This is consistent with observations that epidemic curves in many countries reached a peak less than two months after the first few severe cases appeared."
I've linked & relinked the information about Farr's Law here at the blog (3rd time will be the charm?)  The epidemic curve hit peak months ago. The variolating masks kept the positive test results going, as did the problematic PCR tests. And the pandemic spin could keep on, keepin' on.

8 comments:

  1. Hahaha!
    Shout out to me.....thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You're welcome :)
      credit where credit is due....

      Delete
    2. The credit belongs to the universe. This principle always was and always will be without my recollection even without expression, observation and explication.

      Delete
  2. Gee, Penny, you don't seem to run with the "herd". Nor I. Maybe we can be the exceptions that prove the rule.

    Sorry, I just hate that we're seen by "science" as a "herd", like cattle or sheep. But I do agree completely that, left alone, Mother Nature can sort out a virus in her own way.

    But She isn't in the banking business.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No Mother Nature is not in the banking business-
      and yes she can sort a virus out on her own, quite efficiently, as she's done for millenia

      I know what you mean about the 'herd' immunity being insulting- can you think of something else?
      I'm going to try to as well.
      Something more positive.
      Taking suggestions........

      Delete
  3. Thing is, "herd immunity" is not only insulting, it's a misnomer in that it suggests the whole "herd" has immunity, rather than just a sufficient number of them to tame the virus.And they're not even certain how many of the "herd" would need to gain immunity in order to protect the rest of the population.

    How about Aquired Immunity Ratio? AIR for short.

    https://www.healthline.com/health/acquired-immunity#types-of-immunity

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  4. The site was informative with regard to different kinds of immunity, but of course I don't agree that vaccines are "the best way you can help build your acquired immunity and boost your immune system". You mentioned Vit D a while ago and I think that was excellent advice.

    ReplyDelete

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