Saturday, October 31, 2020

Pt. 1: Armenia & Azerbaijan Should Seize The Chance For Peace. Recognizing “Artsakh” a Recipe for Trouble. Pipelines, Strategic Energy &Transport Corridors

 We're going long. It has to be done because the situation around Nagarno Karabakh is vastly more complicated then is being covered. The media, alt and main stream, is largely spin with a liberal dose of anti Muslim attitude. France has been over the top with this as of late.  Curiously today a Greek Orthodox Priest ( Christian/Greece) was shot by  Muslim extremist ( Islam/Turkey) You see how memes play over and over in the media. Reinforcement. It keeps you focused. Fearful. And controlled. (Like the never ending Covid 1984 fear mongering)

 I’m thinking the impending selection in the US is the reason for their quiet in this situation. Though I’ve no doubt the US/UK and France in particular have been very busy behind the scenes.. Canada, too. (Have you all noticed Canada's  talk and actions?) Quite frankly, I don’t buy this idea that Israel is in Azerbaijan’s court either.  Super zio Macron is too enthralled/enmeshed with Armenia’s cause to think Israel is not standing firmly behind him. Also Israel's surprise recognition of Kosovo is a factor in my belief (we'll touch on that shortly

-Possible Outcomes?

1- Western Imperial Powers will Recognize “Artsakh” Talked about this here previously. This move will certainly set the region alight!

2- Turkey and Russia will send peace keepers in. The issue of territory will be settled once and for all. The same type of cooperation as we see in Syria. Iran may participate as well.   

The idea of recognizing Arstakh was mentioned back on October 02/30

Armenia's Colour Revolution Flunky Pashiny(i)an: "Our Goal Is Total Victory" International Recognition of Nagarno Kharabak (Artsahk) in the Cards?

quid pro quo
While I'd thought this seemingly out of the blue recognition of Kosovo, could be tied to the stolen and occupied territory of Syria- Israel would also benefit, greatly, from recognizing this disputed territory as "independent". In fact they can move right on into the freshly recognized independent territory alongside their Kurdish allies. And their Greek pals too.
Recognizing NK will not bring peace. That’s for sure. Not to anyone. Not to the Armenian's, though they may be overjoyed at the prospect. Not for the Azerbaijani's. Who will be inflamed by the move. No peace for Turkey. None for Iran. Certainly none for Russia.

“While addressing Armenian supporters at a campaign rally on Sunday, President Donald Trump invoked Kosovo in his pledge to resolve the ongoing humanitarian crisis in the South Caucasus. In doing so, Trump may have inadvertently acknowledged the solution to Azerbaijan’s decades of aggression against Armenia (spin obviously, this is Azerbaijani territory) —the recognition of Artsakh’s independence.” 
Armenian Lobby has $$$
So there it is! Trump’s talking about the idea of recognizing this territory as independent. The selection has required that he would be relatively quiet, but, the idea (goal?)  was always there. An opportunity for discord. For chaos, begging to be reordered.  Israel’s sudden recognition of Kosovo was taken for specific geo strategic/ political reasons. That’s certainly how the timely decision was viewed here.  To believe otherwise would be foolish. Israel is part of earlier redrawn world borders, after WW2 and what has occurred in the region since 2001, this latest ongoing remake, can be viewed as World War 3. With less manpower. And why not? When technological advances have sanitized warfare, reducing the reliance on manpower. Save for the global mercenary force that does the dirty work for more then  a ‘fistful of dollars’

Excerpts from some interesting reads:

Atlantic Council: Armenia and Azerbaijan should seize chance for peace
Azerbaijan seems poised to capture a crucial city that could end the military phase of its war with Armenia. Securing a political victory in the war, however, will require Azerbaijan’s restraint to avert a humanitarian catastrophe that could arise were its forces to press all the way into the capital of the region.

On October 29, the leader of Nagorno Karabakh, Arayik Harutyunyan, issued an ominous warning that Azerbaijani troops were within 5 kilometers of the city of Shushi.  He then appealed to all residents of Nagorno Karabakh to join the fight to hold the city, stressing, “As in 1992, when our victory began with the liberation of Shushi, today, our victory depends on the defense of Shushi.”

Known to Azerbaijanis as Shusha, this city within Nagorno Karabakh is of great importance to both sides. Culturally, both Armenians and Azerbaijanis consider the city a cradle of their respective cultures. Militarily, it sits atop commanding heights above Nagorno Karabakh’s capital, Stepanakert (or Khankendi for Azerbaijanis). Whoever controls Shusha controls the “Lachin Corridor,” the lifeline linking Armenia to Stepanakert via the occupied Azerbaijani district of Lachin.

During the past month, Azerbaijan’s army has been decimating Armenian forces.  Initially, Azerbaijan relied on precision drone strikes (using drones purchased from Turkey and Israel) to destroy Armenia’s high-value military assets (e.g., air defenses, tanks, and artillery) and regain its districts of Fuzuli and Jabrayil, which, like five others that surround Nagorno Karabakh, had been occupied by Armenia since the first Karabakh war. Azerbaijani forces then achieved a military breakthrough along the border with Iran about two weeks ago. Azerbaijan subsequently shifted to a combined arms operation that has pushed northward, regaining its regions of Zenglian and Gubadli, and now pressing into Lachin and toward Shusha.

Azerbaijan’s battlefield successes have sparked fears that the Azerbaijani military might now press its advantage to Shushi and beyond to Khankendi, spurred on by Azerbaijani citizens’ newfound nationalist fervor. Such sentiment has intensified as civilian casualties have mounted from Armenian shelling (including by tactical ballistic missiles) of Azerbaijani towns far from the conflict zone. These attacks have been accompanied by Azerbaijani shelling of Armenian civilians in Stepanakert/Khankendi.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, however, has consistently proposed more restrained goals, namely to:

 1- Regain political control of Azerbaijan’s seven districts that surround Nagorno Karabakh

  2- Facilitate the return of displaced Azerbaijanis to their former homes in Nagorno Karabakh and its seven surrounding Azerbaijani reasons;

   3- Rebuild these regained territories; and
    Resume negotiations with Armenia about the future legal status of Nagorno Karabakh, with the region’s Armenian residents free to remain in their homes after their former Azerbaijani neighbors return.

Convincing Armenians to remain in Nagorno Karabakh will be difficult. They fear for their physical security and loathe being forced to become citizens of Azerbaijan if Nagorno Karabakh returns to Baku’s control.
In an October 29  interview to Russia’s Interfax News Agency, however, President Aliyev suggested a way forward. On security, Aliyev announced that Azerbaijan is “…ready to stop all military operations immediately” if Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan commits to withdraw all Armenian troops from the conflict zone. It is important to recognize that Aliyev insisted only on a commitment by Yerevan to withdraw its troops rather than actual withdrawal.

On citizenship rights, Aliyev reiterated his call for negotiations to end the conflict on the basis of the so-called “Basic Principles.” First tabled in November 2007 by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s Minsk Group, the Basic Principles allow inter alia for Nagorno Karabakh’s Armenian residents to claim they are not citizens of Azerbaijan because they live in a region whose legal status is ambiguous and not necessarily part of Azerbaijan.

Pashinyan will resist accepting these conditions. He has already declared “There is no diplomatic solution” to the war over Nagorno Karabakh and publicly abandoned the Basic Principles and their fundamental formula of “land for peace,” instead embracing a formulation of “new territories for new wars.” President Aliyev also faces political danger at home if he defies intense popular sentiment for total military victory.
  Aliyev has definitely been more toned down in rhetoric. I’ve been reading and reading, as much as possible, the language employed by both Aliyev and Pashinian. Pashinian is a spin doctor. Through and through.
As they fill a diplomatic vacuum in the region, Russia and Turkey may now be planning to counsel their respective partners to show restraint. In the October 10 ceasefire agreement Russia brokered between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Russian President Vladimir Putin apparently compelled Pashinyan again to embrace the Basic Principles, (which his predecessor and President Aliyev informally accepted in January 2009).  Meanwhile, Turkey’s Daily Sabah newspaper reports that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has told Putin that Russia could lean on Armenia while Turkey could do the same with Azerbaijan to end the fighting.

The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan would be wise to embrace the political cover their Russian and Turkish counterparts might provide. To survive politically, Pashinyan needs Putin’s public support if he is to stop the fighting by committing to withdraw all Armenian troops and proceed with peace talks in line with the Basic Principles. But by doing so, Pashinyan would save many Armenian soldiers’ lives and provide Nagorno Karabakh’s Armenian residents a chance for a peaceful and prosperous future.  He would also bring Armenia into compliance with four United Nations Security Council Resolutions calling for its troops to withdraw from the Azerbaijani regions they occupy. And if Aliyev is willing to defy the Azerbaijani public’s demands for military vengeance, he will spare his country international
pariah status
while enabling Azerbaijan to attract the international support it will need to rebuild its recovered lands.
To date I've read nothing that indicates Pashinian's willingness to compromise.

Part 2 is published:

Pt. 2: Armenia & Azerbaijan Should Seize The Chance For Peace. Recognizing “Artsakh” a Recipe for Trouble. Pipelines, Strategic Energy & Transport Corridors

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