Monday, September 24, 2018

Payback is a Bitch? Russia to Provide Syria S-300's in 2 Weeks

  I’d mentioned in yesterday’s post that Russia was quite possibly exacting retribution for Israel’s intentional endangerment of their plane, which resulted in the deaths of 15 service persons, while insulting their intelligence with their lie filled presentation of innocence by publicly outing the presence of IDF soldiers, on Syrian territory, which was unsurprisingly held by ISIS.
 UPDATE #1: Russia outed the presence of IDF soldiers in Syria- As they (Russia) retrieved remains of IDF soldiers--- not one person who reads here will be shocked or surprised that  that Israeli military fully participated alongside their Kurdish and coalition allies in destroying Syria.
 Israel tried to "spin" this away.... As mentioned in Update #2  (yesterday's post)  with some absurd perception managing story......
 Another item of interest that I'd saved yesterday was  an article full of Israeli hand wringing that Russia was going to "change the rules of the game in Syria" 

“As senior officials think,” he wrote at the Hebrew news website Walla, “Putin’s tragic event has become a ripe fruit and he will leverage it to impose new rules of the game, such as … much earlier warning systems, restrictions on traffic routes that will reduce the IDF’s freedom of action on the sea and in the air,” and to gain concessions from Israel and the US.

As my post headline stated "payback is a bitch".  Looks to me as if a bit more payback is being readied for Israel. Today it's been announced that the S-300 air defense missile system will be supplied to Syria within two weeks

"Within two weeks, the Syrian army will get from Russia S-300 air-defense missiles to strengthen its combat capabilities following the downing of a Russian Ilyushin Il-20 aircraft in Syria, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Monday.

"A modern S-300 air defense missile system will be supplied to the Syrian Armed Forces within two weeks. It is capable of intercepting air assault weapons at a distance of more than 250 kilometers and hit simultaneously several air targets," the minister said.

Shoigu said S-300 missiles will strongly strengthen combat capabilities of the Syrian air defense due to their jamming invulnerability and firing speed.
I would suspect this jamming invulnerability is important. Recalling the Russian presentation yesterday it was mentioned that the IDF employed electronic interference.

"I will underscore - at the request of the Israeli side, in 2013 we suspended the delivery of S-300 systems that were ready for the dispatch, while the Syrian military had undergone training. Now the situation has changed, and we are not to blame," the defense minister said.

Command posts of the Syrian air defense will also be equipped with Russian automated systems, which guarantee the identification of Russian aircraft, the defense chief stated.

"The command posts of Syrian air defense forces and units will be equipped with automated control systems only supplied to the Russian armed forces. This will facilitate centralized control over all forces and resources of the Syrian air defense, monitor the situation in the air, and ensure operative issuance of orders. Most importantly, we will guarantee the identification of all Russian aircrafts by the Syrian air defense systems," Shoigu said.

A Russian electronic surveillance Il-20 plane was downed over the Mediterranean Sea late on September 17 when it was flying back to the Russian airbase at Syria’s Hmeymim. According to the Russian defense ministry, the plane was shot down by a missile from a Syrian S-200 air defense complex when it was firing at four Israeli F-16 aircraft attacking targets in the Latakia governorate. The Israeli pilots actually used the Russian aircraft as a cover, exposing it to Syrian missiles, the ministry stressed"

Sunday, September 23, 2018

Russian MOD: IL-20 Shootdown Fault Belongs to Israel

 UPDATE #1: Russia outed the presence of IDF soldiers in Syria- As they (Russia) retrieved remains of IDF soldiers--- not one person who reads here will be shocked or surprised that Israeli military fully participated alongside their Kurdish and coalition allies in destroying Syria..This acknowledgement is in the video below as well as reported on here

Russia’s defense ministry claimed on Sunday that its forces had conducted a search in cooperation with the Israeli military to locate the bodies of fallen IDF soldiers in Syria’s Islamic State-held territory.
Neither the timing or location of the operation was provided in the ministry statement.
UPDATE # 2: It seems entirely plausible that Russia is exacting a bit of retribution against Israel by disclosing publicly Israeli involvement directly in the Syrian state.
Israel is in damage control... 

Times of Israel- 

The remains were from 1982 and not from any present day operations...
Tzvi Feldman, Yehuda Katz and Zachary Baumel have been missing in action since the 1982 first Lebanon War. As a rule, the Israeli military continues searching for the remains of all IDF soldiers even decades after they go missing.
The graves were said to be located in the Palestinian refugee camp of Yarmouk, over which Syrian troops regained control earlier this year from the IS terror group after a month-long battle.
I flat out don't believe Israel's spin in this regard- It seems quite obvious to me, since they had their terror thugs in Yarmouk they could have easily, long ago, retrieved these remains.. 
Their cover story falls flat.

The 15 minute presentation is below:

  Quotes from Sputnik:

 "During the negotiations via the deconfliction channel, the representative of the Israeli Air Force Command reported that the targets assigned to the Israeli aircraft are located in Northern Syria … As you can see on the map, the Israeli jets delivered strikes in Latakia which is a western province of the country — and not in the north of the Syrian Arab Republic. The city of Latakia is located on the western coast. The misleading information provided by the Israeli officer about the area of strikes did not allow the Russian Il-20 airplane to move timely to a safe area," Konashenkov said."
"Israel did not inform the Russian force about its operation in advance — but rather they issued a warning simultaneously with the beginning of the strikes, which constitutes a breach of the agreements. These actions constitute a clear violation of the 2015 Russian-Israeli agreements, which are aimed at preventing clashes between our armed forces, in and over Syria, that were reached by the joint working group," Konashenkov said."
"The presented objective data testifies that the actions of the Israeli fighter pilots, which led to the loss of life of 15 Russian servicemen, either lacked professionalism or were an act of criminal negligence to say the least. Therefore, we believe that the blame for the tragedy with the Russian Ilyushin Il-20 aircraft lies entirely with the Israeli air forces and those who made the decision to carry out such actions," Konashenkov stressed."
"Thus, the Israeli jets created a direct threat to any passenger or transport aircraft that could have been there at that time and could have become victims of the adventurism of the Israeli military," Konashenkov added.

Retaliation? No more 'Mr Nice Guy"

 "Russia's retaliatory measures with regard to the Il-20 downing will be directed primarily at stepping up the security of Russian military officers in Syria and our military facilities in the Syrian Arab Republic. These will be the steps everyone will notice," he stressed.
 Should we take that statement as Israel being put on notice? If our military officers are threatened ... it will be dealt with?

Saturday, September 22, 2018

Russia’s Defense Ministry to Publish Detailed Report On IL-20 Downing

The minute-by-minute timeline of the tragedy will be given with a presentation of objective data from the radars’ data handling system about the air situation.

Might this be a rebuttal to Israel's claim?
 MOSCOW, September 22. /TASS/. Russia’s Defense Ministry will publish on Sunday detailed information on circumstances behind the downing of the Russian Ilyushin Il-20 military plane off Syria on September 17, the ministry told reporters on Saturday.

"The minute-by-minute timeline of the tragedy will be given with a presentation of objective data from the radars’ data handling system about the air situation in Syria on September 17 and actions of Israel’s air force in the area of the crash," the ministry said.

On September 17 night, a Russian Ilyushin 20 (IL-20) military surveillance turboprop plane was shot down over the Mediterranean at a distance of 35 kilometers off the Syrian coast, when it was returning to the Russian air base Hmeymim. 
The Russian Defense Ministry said that the aircraft was brought down by a Syrian S-200 surface-to-air missile system when the Syrian air defense opened fire at four Israeli F-16 fighter jets in response to their strikes on facilities in Syria’s Latakia province. 
The defense ministry pointed out that Israel’s F-16 fighter jets used the Russian IL-20 as cover and put it in the line of fire. The tragedy claimed the lives of 15 Russian military personnel.
Going back to the idea of the attack on Latakia being retribution for the Idlib deal
Another analyst considered the possibility without explaining why it is Israel would feel  the need to deliver vengeance on Syria and Russia

Sputnik article via translate:
the original url is available via the translate link
"As he emphasized, "at this stage, it is necessary to condemn completely the actions of all participants in this operation. The Syrian air defense system made a mistake, was provoked by Israeli military aircraft. "
The expert ruled out the possibility of deteriorating military cooperation between Damascus and Moscow. "Both sides know that Israeli aggression was the answer to the conclusion of the Sochi agreement between Moscow and Ankara in the Idlib case," he added."
the expert has a name- check the link for it

As stated he doesn't mention why it is Israel would want to exact revenge.
I have, do and will again. Regional remake for Israel's benefit. What version will succeed is an unknown- But this is, in my opinion, what the Usreal tag team is up to. France as well.

Blood Borders: A Proposal To Redraw A “New Middle East”

 My personal thinking is the Usrael tag team is going for a Kurdistan that covers the area of Assad's 4 seas strategy. Covered in numerous posts, previously:
In a map that looks like this:

 In this version Greater Kurdistan aka Israel 2.0 has access to all the vital/important/beneficial water ways. The Black Sea. Caspian. Mediterranean. Persian Gulf. Ally to Israel. With the ability to reach well into Asia, Europe and the Russian borders.. 

From yesterday:

Friday, September 21, 2018

Lavrov:Russia-Turkey deal on Idlib no threat to Syria’s territorial integrity

Continuing on with the coverage of the Idlib situation because it is pivotal to the Usrael remake agenda.


He said "the main threat to Syria’s territorial integrity comes from the eastern bank of the Euphrates, where independent and autonomous entities are being created under US control."
"We will insist this unlawful activity should be brought to an end. We have been saying so again and again to the Americans and in the UN Security Council," Lavrov said.

The deal between Russia and Turkey on a demilitarized zone in Syria’s Idlib is an interim step, Lavrov said.

"This deal is aimed at eradicating a terrorist threat. No doubt, this is an interim step, as just a demilitarized zone is created," Lavrov stressed.

"But this is a necessary step as the creation of this zone will make it possible to prevent the continuing cases of shelling from the de-escalation zone in Syria’s Idlib Governorate on the positions of Syria’s governmental forces and Russia’s Hmeymim base," he noted.

 From earlier today:

Israel Pleads “Not Guilty”: Syria & Russia at Fault- Russia Rejects Israeli Claims

Israel Pleads “Not Guilty”: Syria & Russia at Fault- Russia Rejects Israeli Claims

Syria Fired Missiles for 40 Minutes After Israeli Airstrike Hitting IL-20

I find the idea of Syria continuing to fire for 40 minutes after Israel’s attack a stretch..
(Just don’t think they’d waste the munitions in that manner.)

The Israeli report into the downing a Russian plane off the coast of Syria during an Israeli airstrike on Monday runs some 40 pages in English and Russian and shows that Syrian anti-aircraft batteries fired dozens of barrages indiscriminately for 40 minutes after the initial Israeli attack.

In a highly unusual move, the IDF acknowledged the airstrike and released some of the findings of its initial investigation, which concluded that Syrian air defense units fired without aiming and “did not bother to ensure that no Russian planes were in the air.”

The IDF’s initial findings were presented in recent days by top Israeli officials, including the head of its air force, Maj. Gen. Amikam Norkin, to their Russian counterparts in Moscow, and both Israel and Russia said Syria, not Israel, was responsible for the downing of the plane, although Moscow has been publicly critical of Israel over the incident.
According to the Israeli report, initially publicized by the Ynet news site, the “deconfliction mechanism,” a coordination system between the IDF and Russian forces meant to prevent friendly fire incidents over Syria, followed the usual procedure before the strike, as it had done in more than 200 attacks over the past two years.
This contradicts earlier reporting regarding the deconfliction protocols not being used appropriately.

The report says Syria’s military then activated several anti-aircraft batteries deployed throughout the country, firing for over half an hour, long after the Israeli planes had returned to their base. The Syrians fired dozens of missiles of various types, including the SA-5, a large, advanced missile which downed an Israeli plane over the Galilee in February, Ynet reported.

The Israeli delegation pointed out to their Russian counterparts that the fundamental issue — one likely to repeat itself — is the change in Syrian behavior since it hit an Israeli F-16 fighter in February.
 A change in behaviour was mentioned in this previous post:

That change had nothing to do with quantities of Syrian missiles being deployed. It had to do with the distance they were firing out to. So the Israeli version doesn’t sync, with the reporting from Janes
“a Facebook post written by the SAA just prior warned that it could and would engage airborne threats out to “at least 100+ km”

Until then, the Syrian batteries would fire a few isolated missiles at the Israeli planes. Sometimes they only operated one battery, assuming that their missiles would do little against the Israeli air force.

However, after hitting the Israeli plane in February, which was the first time that an Israeli fighter jet was downed by enemy fire since the 1982 Lebanon war, the Syrians became more energetic in their efforts, and deployed for the purpose new and advanced missile batteries from Russia.

“According to the IDF report, errors in coordination between those two countries led to the downing of the Russian Il-20 reconnaissance aircraft and the killing of its 15 crew members.”

Russia and Syria’s fault.

Thursday, September 20, 2018

Israel to “improve coordination” with Moscow After Plane Shootdown Incident

From earlier today: Idlib Agreement A Victory for Syria As Trade Routes Reopen

Following up on:
“Israel said on Thursday it would not halt strikes on Syria but would do more to “deconflict” them with Russian forces, after Moscow accused it of “irresponsible and unfriendly actions” that led to Syrian ground fire mistakenly downing a Russian plane.

Although Russian President Vladimir Putin initially described the downing as “tragic chance”, Moscow has made its anger clear.

“Moscow views as irresponsible and unfriendly actions of Israeli Air Force, which exposed Russian Il-20 aircraft to danger and led to death of 15 servicemen,” the Russian embassy in Tel Aviv said on Twitter in English, adding that Russia would “take all necessary measures to eliminate threat to life and security of our military fighting against terrorism”.
Israel dispatched its air force chief to brief Moscow about the incident on Thursday. Expressing regret at the loss of life, Israel denied wrongdoing and blamed what it called wanton Syrian anti-aircraft fire after its jets had withdrawn back over the border”

Wanton Syrian anti aircraft fire after Israel’s jets had withdrawn over the border?
What a claim! Let’s break it down.

-Israel should not be attacking Syria.  Since Israel is attacking Syria it’s obvious that Syria should and would protect itself. So “wanton anti aircraft fire” is a rather self serving claim, ( big surprise) on Israel’s part.
-Withdrawn over the border?  What border is Israel referring to? Lebanon’s border? Notice the statement doesn’t mention the jets withdrew back across the Israeli border. We need some clarity on that!

-Syria's fault?  Implied in the statement is the fault for this incident lying with Syria due to the great distance “across the border” they were wantonly using their anti aircraft fire. Again Israel should not be launching airstrikes on Syria for the multiple hundreds of times they have!

Here’s where we might be getting back to the exploitation of information found immediaely preceding the attack. Information regarding the distance Syrian anti aircraft fire was willing to engage.

Mentioned in this post
“Naftali Bennett, another member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s security cabinet, said “deconfliction mechanisms” would be improved, referring to a Russian-Israeli hotline designed to avoid inadvertent clashes with forces Moscow sent to Syria as part of a military intervention mounted in 2015.

“We will of course strengthen these mechanisms. We will do everything so as not to harm anyone we do not intend to, God forbid,” Bennett told Army Radio in a separate interview. “

Deconfliction mechanisms were already in place. And had been since 2015- One way to improve them would be for Israel to use them in a timely fashion.  As mentioned in previous post (2) 
Since this mechanism has been available to them for the past 3 years. 

One last item of interest: Regarding the question of recognizing friends or foes?


It seems the answer to this question  (2)"There is a question of why the Syrian system didn't recognize the Russian plane as a friendly? Is answered below:
The Russian Defense Ministry has described as “amateur fantasies” claims that the Il-20 military plane was hit in Syria due to a failure in the friend-foe identification system. Each state has its own Identification Friend or Foe (IFF) system and Russia does not install its identification systems on armaments exported abroad, the ministry’s spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said Thursday.
There were no precedents where it had transferred IFF systems with Russian identification codes to other states. “All this fully applies to the domestic air defense systems delivered to the Syrian Arab Republic,” he said. “The IFF system of state recognition used by Russia is only used by aircraft and air defense systems identified as Russian.”

Idlib Agreement A Victory for Syria As Trade Routes Reopen

Idlib agreement a victory for Assad regime as trade routes to reopen
Definitely one plus in the Idlib agreement!
"Details of the agreement between Turkey and Russia on a demilitarised zone in the rebel-held northwestern province of Idlib, seen by The National, reveal a substantial victory for Damascus, even though it stalled a planned ground offensive there.

The announcement of the deal had at first appeared to deal a major blow to the Syrian government’s designs on the province. After weeks of building up forces around the edges and promising an attack, the Syrian army’s operation was nixed.

But the deal hammered out between Ankara and Moscow stipulates that two strategic highways running through the province be reopened to traffic by the end of the year, achieving a major aim of the planned government offensive without a shot being fired.

The M4 and M5 highways run from Latakia to Saraqib, and from Syria’s southern tip to the border with Turkey in the north – both have been cut off in Idlib since 2014.
Before the war, the M5 highway was a major trade route that connected the commercial hub of Aleppo to Damascus and on to the Jordanian border. The recapture of the two highways was seen as a likely first phase to a wider government assault on Idlib."

I’ve discussed the importance of opening the M-5 as well as the M-4 highways on more then a couple of occasions here at the blog- Which may be one reason why the Idlib deal came as far less of a surprise to me then most others:

"Leaks from the Astana talks, between guarantor nations in Syria (Russia, Turkey and Iran), show that questions surround how the roads would be secured and the extent of economic interest for the conflicting parties"
 "Reopening them would help resume trade between neighbouring Turkey and regime-held areas. The agreement says these steps are a way “to ensuring free movement of local residents and goods and restoring trade and economic relations”.
“Idlib is strategically relevant less as Idlib itself than as a crossroads between other more politically and economically significant provinces and as a gateway to Turkey,” said Sam Heller, a senior analyst at Crisis Group.

“For Damascus, reopening these roads is relevant economically as it attempts to reintegrate Syria economically and position itself for postwar reconstruction, and it has symbolic political value as another step towards a unified, state-controlled Syria,” he added.

You can see the full text of the Idlib document here

Or here

The re opening of the highways is written into the 10 point document. Check the 8th point out.