Thursday, February 21, 2019

Trajectory and The Geopolitics of Pulwama (M K Bhadrakhumar)

 Trajectory: a  path followed under the action of given forces.
 direction: movement: flow
From launch to....
 Link
It is improbable that Prime Minister Narendra Modi holds a motor car driving licence. And it is an intelligent guess that even if he did possess one, Modi will not emulate Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan by driving the car from Delhi airport bearing the visiting Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman when he lands on Indian soil tonight.
Link

Khan/ Bin Salmon
Simply put, India cannot — and need not — hope to have a relationship with Saudi Arabia, which is a patch on Pakistan’s alliance with that wealthy, oil-rich kingdom.
Suffice to say, by queer coincidence, a terrible beauty is born on February 17-18 on the South Asian chessboard. The resilience of the Indian foreign policy and its diplomatic clout in isolating Pakistan and compelling it to abandon the policy of sponsoring terrorist groups in J&K is being put to test.
The announcement in Islamabad by the visiting Saudi Crown Prince of his whopping $20 billion investment plans as “first phase” in a profound programme to resuscitate the Pakistani economy — and that too, coming on top of the $3 billion cash bailout and another $3 billion deferred payment facility for supply of Saudi oil — can only be seen as an early warning to the Modi government to wake up from its 5-year old stupor confusing Indian strategy in a complicated world with Modi’s self-image as a world statesman.
The Saudi money will help wean Pakistan from China's breast...
-The Prime Minister before Khan had brought Pakistan closer to China... Khan will sever that relationship
This is not about money alone. In geopolitical terms, MBS’ visit highlights that it is impossible to “isolate” Pakistan. And that is not because of the traditional fraternal ties of Muslim brotherhood (no pun intended) between the Saudis and Pakistanis. The heart of the matter is that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Israel and Pakistan also happen to be key players in the new Middle East Security Alliance (MESA) that the US is actively promoting currently in the Greater Middle East, the region that stretches from the Levant to the steppes of Central Asia. 
The UAE involvement in the MESA likely explains their willingness to make amends, not with  Assad's Syria, but with Usrael's kurds occupying stolen Syrian land.

The Pulwama tragedy has blown to smithereens the Modi government’s foreign policy assumptions toward the Middle Eastern players. The sad reality is that India’s political elites (not only at the central level but also at the state level) have come to view the Arab sheikhs in the petrodollar states as milch cows, which completely overlooks that India can never have a convergence with those brutal autocratic regimes in values or at the geopolitical level. 
Saudi Arabia and the UAE stand at the opposite end of the spectrum vis-a-vis India when it comes to the issue of terrorism. The extradition of Christian Michael from the UAE (presumably, as quid pro quo for the shameful surrender of Sheikha Latifa, the rebellious daughter of the ruler of Dubai) does not alter this stark reality. Plainly put, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have acted in the recent history as the locomotive of “jihadi terrorism”. (here , here and here) The sooner Indian foreign policy adapts to this geopolitical reality, the better. 
As for Israel, the Modi government has fundamentally reoriented India’s policy toward Israel by needlessly injecting into the relationship an ideological content, where none exists. It overlooks that Israelis are rank opportunists who are motivated by self-interests. During his visit to Israel in July 2017, Modi committed an appalling act — out of deliberation or simply due to lack of erudition, perhaps — by paying homage to Theodor Herzi, the founder of Zionism, in Jerusalem.
Modi in Israel

On the other hand, on Modi’s watch, India’s Palestine policy has been reduced to mere tokenism. At any rate, the Indian elite failed to anticipate that Israel and Pakistan are actually birds of the same feather as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who sponsor terrorism and deploy terrorists to foreign countries as statecraft. If the US has its way, these 4 kindred states will now for all purposes provide the steel frame of the MESA in a vast region that forms our western neighbourhood. 
"If the US has its way, these 4 kindred states will now for all purposes provide the steel frame of the MESA in a vast region that forms our western neighbourhood."

Equally, there has been a specific report recently of an Israeli plane landing secretly at the Noor Khan Airbase in Rawalpindi and left after several hours, which coincided, intriguingly, with the visit by Netanyahu to Oman in November. It fuelled the speculation that the Israelis might have had a secretive pow-vow with the all-powerful Pakistani military leaders. Some in Pakistan even thought Netanyahu had flown in for a quiet chat with Imran Khan. 
Equally, reports have appeared recently regarding an Israeli military and intelligence presence already in Afghanistan, which could not have happened without the knowledge of Islamabad and tacit acceptance by the Pakistani military establishment. 
Again.. Pakistan long infiltrated with Usreal terror groups. 
Agreed on the fact that Israel could NOT be operating in Afghanistan without Pakistan's knowledge, approval and cooperation. 
On the other hand, today, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are Israel’s covert allies in West Asia. They are joined at the hips in the project to overthrow the Iranian regime. We may expect that the Af-Pak could become a major theatre from where their covert operations would be launched with the help of Pakistan under the watch and protection of the US to destabilise Iran. Tehran has repeatedly alleged that the two Arab states are working in tandem with the US and Israel. 
Saudi Arabia and UAE are Israel's long time covert allies... Overthrowing Iran benefits all three nations. As well as the US.
After last Tuesday’s fedayeen attack in Iran’s southeastern region of Sistan-Baluchistan bordering Pakistan (in which 27 Iranian troops were killed in circumstances eerily similar to what happened in Pulwama), top Iranian generals have openly alleged the role of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence. Unsurprisingly, Saudis and the Emiratis who are bankrolling the Pakistani economy, have come to call the shots in Islamabad and Rawalpindi.  Tehran is expecting turbulent times. 
All this makes the US’ demonstrative act of commiserating with India over the Pulwama attack highly dubious, bordering on the diabolical. For the Trump administration today, Pakistan’s cooperation is critical for ensuring that a long term American military presence is established in Afghanistan. Although the US’ capacity to leverage Pakistan has diminished, the Pakistani elite’s “westernism” is still very much alive and the Saudi and Emirati clout in Islamabad and Rawalpindi supplements the American diplomacy. 
Therefore, we have an explosive mix today, such as we have never come across before in our region and which no one could have foreseen previously — except, indeed,  the astute mind of Hamid Karzai — whereby the Taliban leadership has come under immense Pakistani pressure to eschew its “Afghan-ness”) and accede to the US wish list on an open-ended military presence in Afghanistan (which is also backed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE as well as Israel.)
Of course, there is resistance from within Taliban ranks to a settlement on such humiliating terms that militate against the Pashtun national pride and makes nonsense of the Taliban’s folklore of Afghan “resistance”. But the ISI has begun a vicious crackdown on such recalcitrant / irreconcilable elements within the Taliban leadership with a view to bludgeon those hapless fellows into submission. 
What the Saudis and Emiratis are expecting as follow-up in the near future is a certain “rebooting” of the traditional Afghan-Islamist ideology of the Taliban and its quintessentially natioanlistic “Afghan-centric” outlook with a significant dosage of Wahhabi indoctrination, which would make it possible integrate the Taliban into the global jihadi network and co-habitate it with extremist organisations such as the variants of Islamic State or al-Qaeda (who have proliferated in the Middle East in the recent years), so that geopolitical projects can be undertaken in regions such as Central Asia and the Caucasus or Iran from the Afghan soil, under a comprador Taliban leadership. 
Makes sense to me.
If anyone can tweak the Taliban’s Pashtun DNA and morph it into a Punjabi DNA, it is only the Pakistani military establishment and ISI which can do it. The Saudis and Emiratis (and the Americans) expect the Pakistani military to fulfil this transformative act as quid pro quo for the tens of billions of dollars that are being doled out by them to keep Pakistan afloat. 
India’s strategists and policymakers should have a thorough rethink of their options. Clearly, it requires vast intellectual resources and our security-centric set-up may be short of it. No doubt, the stopover by EAM Sushma Swaraj in Tehran in the weekend was a symbolic step in the right direction, but it is too little, too late. India should show spunk to stand up to Trump’s bullying and take practical steps to nurture and preserve the strategic understanding with Iran, which previous leaderships had bequeathed to Modi (including late AB Vajpayee who had a keen sense of history.)
The point is, Iran is India’s lone natural ally in the region. The Pulwama tragedy should  awaken us to this geopolitical reality. The time has come to rapidly revive the verve of the India-Iran strategic understanding, which has always been in our core interest as a factor of regional security and stability.
Again, a geopolitical matrix analogous to the Afghan jihad of the early 1980s is appearing. However, alas, there are people among the Indian elite — within the establishment and the media — who have already rushed to celebrate that the US national security advisor John Bolton twice telephoned Ajit Doval regarding Pulwama. Shame on them! 
They do not know who Bolton is, what his real intentions could be. Bolton was a vociferous ideologue of the US’ Iraq invasion; he is today rooting for a permanent US military presence in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan; and, most importantly, he is almost maniacally obsessive about the regime change project on Iran. He has made a handsome living out of such malignant dogma. 
Fundamentally, he is a creation of the Israeli Lobby in the US, which manipulated his appointment to this key position as NSA in the Trump White House. Considering all this, the motivation behind Bolton’s commiserating words over the Pulwama tragedy must be properly understood. Make no mistake, there is iron in his soul. 
At the most obvious level, Bolton has projected the US as India’s most sincere ally in the fight against terrorism. Two, he has subtly conveyed a US “tilt” toward India — and against Pakistan. Three, he has introduced the US into a mediatory role that enables it to finesse the Indian reaction to Pulwama in the coming days and weeks and may have created a vantage point from where Washington can easily insert itself into any India-Pakistan confrontation. 
What our strategists can ignore at India’s peril is that a US intervention is to be expected at an early stage of any India-Pakistan confrontation. Washington will no doubt use any emergent situation to elicit greater cooperation from Islamabad in Afghanistan. But Delhi cannot expect the US to work for Indian interests. Nor can India hope to achieve anything durable out of a military confrontation with Pakistan. 
The stakes are simply far too high for President Trump to end the war in Afghanistan and to consolidate a permanent military presence in the Hindu Kush in a post-war Afghan scenario, which is integral to the US global strategy to counter China and Russia. India is of no utility for the US to attain this objective. On the contrary, a compliant Pakistan will also expect that the US takes note of its ‘legitimate’ interests vis-a-vis India. 
That is why, we must take careful note, without fail, of the recent testimony at a US Senate Armed Services Committee hearing this month by the commander of the US Central Command General Joseph Votel that Pakistan will always be a “country of importance” to the United States. Gen. Votel said, “If Pakistan plays a positive role in achieving a settlement to the conflict in Afghanistan, the US will have opportunity and motive to help Pakistan fulfill that role, as peace in the region is the most important mutual priority for the US and Pakistan.”
He added, ominously without elaborating publicly, “Our posture with Pakistan involves supporting our colleagues at the Department of State as they pursue a diplomatic solution with Islamabad to end the conflict in Afghanistan while ensuring that Pakistan’s equities are acknowledged and addressed in any future agreement.”
Clearly, Bolton is playing the long game, and Modi government should not fall for it. The geopolitics of Pulwama is highly complicated.
The Saudi Crown Prince’s historic visit to Pakistan marks the formal induction of Pakistan into the US-sponsored Middle East Security Alliance. This geopolitical reality will haunt the Modi government’s strident diplomatic campaign against Pakistan every inch of the way in the weeks and months ahead and stymie all Indian attempts to isolate Pakistan. 
On the other hand, Pakistan senses that it has come breathtakingly close to taking revenge against India in Kashmir. The Pakistani establishment thinks, rightly or wrongly, that India’s “East Pakistan moment” has come and it is payback time now. And having embedded itself within the MESA and made itself indispensable to an Afghan settlement that will save face for the US and NATO and provide underpinning for American bases in Afghanistan, Islamabad is brimming with confidence that no matter what Bolton might have whispered to Doval, there is precious little that Washington can do — or will dare to do — to compel it to let go its agenda toward J&K and India. 


Wednesday, February 20, 2019

US Led Coalition Evacuates ISIS and Their Families from Last "Stronghold"

Perhaps you recall my mentioning last week this was how the last ISIS stronghold would fall- with an escorted exit?
 The free pass  has been the standard mode of operation when the ‘heat is on’ (allegedly) between Kurds and ISIS.

Press TV

The so-called Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported that more than 50 trucks belonging to the military alliance and covered tightly with tarps carried the terrorists along with their family members out of Baghouz village east of the Euphrates River on Wednesday.
Informed sources, requesting not to be named, told the Britain-based monitoring group added that US-led military helicopters were hovering in the skies over the area as the exit took place.
The Observatory had earlier reported that negotiations were underway between the US-backed and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Daesh remnants, with the latter demanding a safe passage to an unknown area believed to in the desert areas of Iraq’s western province of al-Anbar.

Not going to Idlib, as so many disinformants on line have claimed? I didn't expect they were. Rather this batch is reported to be heading straight for Anbar Province. The birth place of ISIS in Iraq. Iraq which just happens to be chock full of US bases.  And US soldiers. Iraq. America's best new friend in the 'hood". Check the video at the Press TV link- I cannot get it to embed here despite multiple attempts to do just that

 The paragraph below appears below the video:

Daesh Takfiri militants and their family members leave their last stronghold in Baghouz village, eastern Syria, on February 20, 2019, as the US-led coalition purportedly fighting the terrorist group overlooks the exit. (Photo by the Syrian Observatory of Human Rights)

If you think Press TV is the only outlet reporting on the free pass?
You'd be mistaken- A bit more obfuscated in western media, but, the truth is there

LATimes


A U.S.-backed militia has sent trucks to the edge of Islamic State’s dwindling territory in eastern Syria to evacuate hundreds of civilians as well as surrendering fighters, many of them foreign-born, commanders said Tuesday.

Google Nest Has a Microphone that Wasn’t Supposed to Be A Secret..

They just forgot to tell consumers about it being there since 2017
Google also claims "it was never on" so don’t you worry about that at all ;)



LinkLink
Nest’s latest headache involves its modular Nest Secure security system. More specifically, a microphone that customers weren’t aware was included in the base device. And while Google admits it messed up, it’s definitely not convincing users the company has their best interest at heart.

Google, which owns Nest, announced earlier this month it was adding Google Assistant support for the Nest Guard—one of three products that make up its Nest Secure system. Overall, you’d think that’s a helpful feature but Google’s failure to disclose the Guard hub had a built-in microphone detracts from any benefit and has led to plenty of criticism of the company’s intent on Twitter.

When Nest Secure was announced back in 2017, the microphone was suspiciously absent from any tech specs for the product.

So have Nest Secure owners been unwittingly spied on all this time? Google says no. “The microphone has never been on and is only activated when users specifically enable the option.”
As for why the microphone was included in the first place, Google said it’s common for security systems to use microphones for features that rely on picking up different sounds. It also said the company “included the mic on the device so that [it] can potentially offer additional features to our users in the future, such as the ability to detect broken glass.”
The microphone was never on (claimed) but.. security systems use microphones for features that rely on picking up different sounds That seems highly suggestive that the microphone was on.

All of that makes sense, but it’s unsettling in the wake of Nest’s recent privacy and security issues. A California family recently received false warnings through their Nest camera that North Korean missiles were about to strike, while last year, a woman was told through her cam that a man was going to kidnap her baby.
A security system that terrorizes you? There's likely been a move like that, no?


Tuesday, February 19, 2019

President al-Assad's Most Recent Speech- Eight Years Encapsulated

If you think I'm tough on the Usreael Kurds... Assad is tougher still.

 He's also quite clear on US responsibility for beginning the destabilization.. before 2011, of course, but officially 2011 is when it began. With the help, encouragement and support of Israel and Jordan. 
 Despite nonsense about the Syria destabilization having to do with climate change.. a claim that has been debunked on more then one occasion yet is still shamelessly promoted by the muddiers of imperial agendas Another AGW Lie Bites the Dust: "Climate Change Fuelled Syrian War"
“There is no sound evidence that global climate change was a factor in sparking the Syrian civil war,” said University of Sussex Professor Jan Selby, one of the study’s co-authors, in a statement.

“It is extraordinary that this claim has been so widely accepted when the scientific evidence is so thin.”
AGW pushers don't worry about science... They rely on computer models. Garbage in/Garbage out. The roots of the "revolution" were planted in Daara. Seeds propagated through 'social media', interconnected NGO's and the amplifying media

Down the memory hole:

 Videos posted by activists on Youtube and Twitter showed dead and wounded people lying on a street in Daraa, as heavy gunfire crackled nearby and people shouted in panic.
The Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist groups might try to exploit a collapse of government control in Deraa by seeking support from across the Jordanian border.
 Interesting to step back in time and see Jordan and the Muslim Brotherhood mentioned in the same statement? 
 Let's also consider how real this 'social media' revolution was? Or not. Let us ask, what kind of revolution would it have been without the perception managing 5 eyes media?  They who opened the flood gates allowing the free flow of a minuscule amount of 'social media activity' really gossip and innuendo, turning it into a inundation (opposite of the yellow vest protests)
 Journalists working for regional and international media were tweeting news before reporting it to their news rooms. So the media started using tweets as a source for information and they sometimes took citizens for journalist and thus fell into reporting false information at some times.

Assad's Speech via Sana February 17/19

And you should read the speech in it's entirety. Clearly Assad has a handle on the concept of social cohesion and citizenship (Jus soli)  
All living creatures, in tune with nature, understand the concept of 'from the soil' 
"Jus soli in many cases helps prevent statelessness"
Which is why this concept is frowned upon in a global world order. Which is why this concept is being destroyed. For a globalist slave planet.. Sound dramatic? Oh, it isn't dramatic in the least.

"He said that the studies issued during the war on Syria by research centers in the countries that support terrorism, as well as the statements of officials in these countries, it could be seen that these countries’ policies towards Syria are based on two pillars: the first is supporting terrorism which is a temporary pillar, and the second is applying a type of decentralization that is different from the one law 107 proposes; a decentralization that weakens the state’s authority and marginalizes it, thereby weakening sovereignty, nationalism, and social cohesion, which would lead to social division and ultimately geographic division."
Identity politics. Always divisive. By design.  The more identity's created the more division. No wonder some individuals are so splintered these days. Identity politics has played a huge role in the destabilization of Syria. And it has gone unmentioned. Or openly cheered on?
Cheering or frowning depends on the 'identity' being presented. I guess?
"The President said that those who pursued these plans are limited in their way of thinking, as their goals could not be achieved without true social division in Syria, which never existed, otherwise Syria would have become divided during the first years or even months of the war.
“But our enemies don’t learn lessons, and maybe it’s a good thing that they don’t learn lessons, because that will make them repeat the same mistakes,” he said, adding “there are two truths that never changed: the first is the plot to control not only Syria but the whole world, which is carried out by Western state led by the United States, and the second is our people’s will for resistance which remained firm and became more ingrained and deep-rooted.”
I'm going to repeat a part of Assad's statement again: 
" the first is the plot to control not only Syria but the whole world, which is carried out by Western state led by the United States" 
Considering all of the earlier reference Assad made in the speech to local administrations, local communities and the role of the Americans in controlling Syria with bigger goals in mind... the following comments are aimed directly at the Usrael Kurdish proxy forces.
 
“From the beginning, you offered yourselves and the homeland for sale. I wouldn’t say you offered your principles, because you had none to begin with. You offered yourselves and the homeland for sale, and there was demand for this kind of goods at the time, and you were paid handsomely and bought, but after the new owners tried you out, and despite all the plastic surgery and improvements and upgrading and modifications, you failed to achieve the required tasks, so they decided to sell you at a discount after demand for you decreased in the international slave market, but at a low price, and they won’t find a buyer and they’ll probably give you away for free, and no-one will take you.
“But you were sold without the homeland , because the homeland has actual owners, not thieves. The homeland has a people who view their homeland as their soul whose death would mean their death, while brokers consider the homeland a commodity that they can replace if it’s gone after they pay the price. The homeland is like a soul; these are phrases you don’t understand… the homeland is sacred; these are words whose meaning you don’t know, because you are cheap brokers who understand nothing but humiliation and disgrace and who deserve only contempt and disdain.”
His Excellency said that after all these years, those who betrayed their homeland haven’t learned the self-evident rule which is that the only value is given by the real people, while the illusory people they invented in their sick imagination doesn’t really exist, adding that the only path to reach the real people is through honesty and clarity, not through betrayal and hypocrisy, nor through other states’ officials and intelligence agencies.
President al-Assad stressed that the only forward for these individuals is through reconciliation, handing over their weapons, and recanting their sins, and the Syrian people with their big heart will forgive those who are honest in their repentance, and the Syrian people look to the future.
He stressed that nations and countries are built and made strong by lessons and experiences, and Syria will become stronger and better because it persevered and confronted the war with bravery, adding that those who expressed Syria’s strength are the Armed Forces who, with the aid of allies and friends, managed to defeat terrorism, which couldn’t have been possible without wide-scale popular support.
The President said that while some would interpret wide-scale popular support as the support of the majority that was in the areas controlled by the state, the fact is that there were also supporters in the areas where militants were present, who could not leave for fear of being killed by the militants.
His Excellency added that the involvement of a number of Syrians in terrorism and treason doesn’t mean they represent Syrian society; rather they represent the dark side of any society caused by the lack of values, principles, and morals, which produces crime, extremism, and corruption, leading to the absence of affiliation to the homeland, which is exploited by enemies inside and abroad to fragment the country."

From yesterday:

 

Monday, February 18, 2019

James Jeffrey: US Doesn’t Want Syria To Regain Control of the North East

The news from this post connects to today's earlier report:
So the seeds for an ISIS resurgence are being readied. Should that be required. 

James Jeffrey: US  Doesn’t Want Syria To Regain Control of the North East

Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, US special representative to Syria James Jeffrey stressed that Washington's goals in northeast Syria have not changed despite the American forces' withdrawal. He stated that Washington does not want Syrian government forces to regain control of this territory.
"Our goals in the northeast have not changed. They involve first of all maintaining security in the region, which means we are not at all in favour of the regime coming back in because the regime doesn't promote stability as we see in other areas", Jeffrey said at the Munich Security Conference"
 True enough, the goals in the north east have not changed... They've been the same goals as when this started in 2011. Break off a chunk of Syria. Make a big Sunni Muslim KURD block between Syria/Lebanon and Iran. Isolating them. Weakening them. Denying them access to allies and resources. Target Turkey and Iran. Impede the silk road. Control the 4 seas.
With an eye to destabilizing Russia and keeping China subordinate. 
All those topics have been discussed here over too many years. In too many reports to count anymore

Tuesday, June 21, 2011 :Assad's "Four Seas Strategy" Damascus converges with China 

Kurdistan: Impeding the New Silk Road/Rimland Vs Heartland 

How knowable was this remake agenda?

The fact that it was discernible and I was able to write about it for years suggests the plan was in the works. Able to be followed. With an end goal always in sight.  I first wrote about this in 2012. Yes, 2012. Seven years ago.

 Therefore, James Jeffrey is actually being truthful when stating the goals in the north east of Syria haven't changed.

 2012

2014

 

Former "IsIamic State" fighters return home to Kurdish Held Syria

KurdIShIS... how many years has that obvious symbiosis been stated here?

DW
"As Europe, under pressure from US President Donald Trump, seeks solutions to take back its citizens drawn to the "Islamic State" (IS) group, the Shammar tribe in northern Syria is re-integrating former IS members."
If they are being reintegrated (The action or process of integrating someone back into society)... it seems sensible that these ISIS fighters had to have originated with the Shammar tribe in the first place.

"The Shammar tribe's militia, the Al-Sanadid forces, control swathes of land in north-eastern Syria, close to the Iraqi border. Until recently, they were part of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and at present the Shammar belong to the Kurdish-led civilian leadership in northern Syria."
Shammar belongs to the Kurdish led civilian leadership in Syria.. 
Shammar also allegedly fought ISIS, same as the Kurds.
In plain talk: ISIS is going to live with their mortal enemies,  those who allegedly fought them to their death, the Usrael Kurds

And if you believe the fought to the death narrative???? I can't help ya!

So the seeds for an ISIS resurgence are being readied. Should that be required.

Germany is reporting their ISIS fighters have a fundamental right to return

German citizens who have fought with the Islamic State militant group in Syria have a fundamental right to return to Germany, a spokesman for the interior ministry said on Monday. 
“All German citizens, including those who are suspected of having been involved with the Islamic State have a fundamental right” to be in Germany, the interior ministry spokesman said. 

Saturday, February 16, 2019

Kashmir Attack: Prompt/Encourage a Crisis in South Asia

Interesting to see the word "prompt" used in the headline?

Prompt: to move to action; to serve as the inciting cause.

India Today
 The article lays out three basic relevant points.

On Thursday, a suicide car bomber launched a major terrorist attack in Indian Kashmir. In the town of Pampore, a vehicle armed with a bomb rammed into a bus full of Indian paramilitary soldiers, killing 44 and injuring several others.

Although insurgent violence against military targets in Kashmir is not without precedent, here’s what’s different: This attack is the deadliest single incident in decades involving Indian security forces.

The attack has India rattled — and pointing fingers at Pakistan. This is troubling because India and Pakistan have fought multiple wars over Kashmir besides being engaged in intermittent skirmishes along the border. Will the Pampore incident spark a new and dangerous phase in the enduring rivalry between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan? Here’s what you need to know:
1. Who is responsible?

Militant group Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM), a group that aims to unite Kashmir with Pakistan, has claimed responsibility for the attack. According to JeM, the bomber, Adil Dar, hails from a town near the site of attack. This is not unusual for Kashmir, where Indian authorities are concerned about a spike in young recruits joining Islamist militant groups operating in the region. In the Kashmir valley, anger and resentment toward the Indian government has deepened in recent years — especially as the government has employed violent repressive tactics.

JeM’s claim of responsibility makes the situation especially volatile. JeM is a sophisticated group, with a base in Pakistan and a history of salient attacks in India. It carried out the 2001 attack on the Indian parliament in New Delhi, and the 2016 attack on an Indian air base in the city of Pathankot.

Though officially banned by the Pakistani government, JeM has operated from Pakistan for two decades, which suggests it has close links to Pakistan’s security establishment. JeM has also helped Pakistan in its own war against terrorist groups like the Pakistani Taliban. At the United Nations, at Pakistan’s behest, China has repeatedly blocked JeM’s designation as a terrorist group.

Given Islamabad’s ban-yet-support approach toward JeM, many in India and beyond are likely to see the Pakistani security establishment as having sponsored the Pampore attack. Pakistan has denied any involvement, and will continue to do so. Pakistan might offer to investigate cross-border links of the attackers and arrest some JeM leaders for the time being. However, given the bad blood between the two countries on investigations of similar attacks, it is equally likely that Pakistan may outright refuse to respond.
40 Dead

Pakistan's security establishment ties back to which prominent global players?


2. What happens next in South Asia?
On Friday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi pledged a strong response.

But the Pampore attack revives India’s strategic dilemma on Pakistan-based militant groups: how to retaliate without risking a nuclear war. The urge to act is particularly serious, given Modi’s long-standing pledge to punish Pakistan for supporting terrorism on Indian soil.

Modi is also up for reelection this year, which in recent months has increasingly looked like an uphill battle. As political scientists Vipin Narang and Paul Staniland point out, no foreign policy issue rallies the Indian electorate like anger toward Pakistan. If the Modi government does nothing in response to the attack, it is likely to incur domestic political costs.

What response options might India consider? In 2001 and 2002, Indian policymakers undertook a massive troop mobilization along the international border with Pakistan, threatening all-out war. In 2016, India claimed to have carried out a small-scale incursion as a retaliation for an armed attack on an Indian military camp in the border town of Uri. India has also considered airstrikes and artillery fire on Pakistani military and intelligence positions deep in the Pakistan-controlled part of Kashmir, as well as a large-scale rapid attack in mainland Pakistan.

But Pakistan can thwart some of these options. It has a favorable defensive position in Kashmir, which suggests it could limit the damage from small-scale Indian incursions. In 2001, Islamabad responded to a large-scale Indian troop mobilization with its own mobilization and held its ground. In recent years, Pakistan has developed small-scale battlefield nuclear weapons — called tactical nuclear weapons — and threatens to use them in case of a large-scale Indian attack against advancing forces.

This means any Indian military action comes with a risk of serious — and potentially difficult to control — escalation of hostilities between the two nuclear-armed foes.
This is not to say India will be deterred. Many Indian policymakers, including the army chief, argue that Pakistan’s capabilities are overstated — despite warnings by some officials that the Pakistani reaction might be difficult to manage. And Modi has political incentives to act. He is likely to assess this uncertainty, gauging the high domestic political cost of not acting against the potential risks of military action. The chance of serious Indian use of force against Pakistan is real.
3. What will be the U.S. response?

The White House issued a statement to condemn the Pampore attack — but Washington is in an awkward position. The United States wants Islamabad’s help to end the war in Afghanistan, and senior U.S. officials have cautiously praised Pakistan’s help in recent months toward the Afghan peace process. President Trump’s emphasis on a pullout from Afghanistan increases Pakistan’s importance to U.S. regional policy.

The United States would be hard pressed to sanction Pakistan for terrorism emanating from its soil — or back an Indian military operation into Pakistan. The U.S. government might continue to condemn Pakistan for providing terrorist groups with a safe haven but that would be the possible extent of its support for India. As important as the long-term India-U.S. relationship may be in the eyes of U.S. strategists, the needs of the conflict in Afghanistan — and Pakistan’s role there — are likely to take precedence in the short run.
The White House response has been pretty muted. Media coverage has been quite subdued.
"Might continue to condemn Pakistan", which would amount to lip service.

This terror attack came hot on the heels of the attack on Iran. Which also originated from Pakistan. These are not happenstance occurrences.


India and Iran sign 'historic' Chabahar port deal

That's correct there was a terrorist attack in Iran: The very day of the Summit in Sochi. Message to Iran? You betcha! Delivered via Pakistan - In collusion/cooperation with the Sunni Muslim terror group PKK, undoubtedly!  Not to forget the MEK.

January 2019:

 Rumours of An American Withdrawal From Afghanistan Appear Exaggerated 
 The claim of withdrawals most definitely mean more war. As IS the case in Syria most recently. As was the case in Iraq not so long ago. Where withdrawal meant increased bombing and civilian displacement and hell even the "arrival" and expansion of ISIS
Isn't it interesting to observe that while the US is claiming to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, same as all those years back in Iraq, though none left either nation state, yet terrorism and war increased? 
Including but not limited to more terror attacks in the occupied nation as well as the surrounding states.  Which we've just witnessed the occurrence of in both Iran and India. Neighbours to Afghanistan/Pakistan.. It's a repeating pattern.
 

 Go back to the July 2018 post:
 Pakistan & the geopolitical global game of chess
  1. Pakistan is a critically important piece in the geo political game that is taking place in that part of the globe.
  2. There are plans to balkanize Pakistan.
  3. There is an area called Baluchistan that is a specific point of interest
  4. There is a giant port at Gwadar- Built by China
  5. This also connects back to Afghanistan and India.
Recall my statements of last year?
Imran Khan has not been empowered to unify the country or to have friendly relations with India. 
PFYT 2017 “ the mercurial and virulently anti-Indian Imran Khan, who has been a protege of the army, could emerge stronger than he is now.”

Who wants India and Pakistan at each other’s throats? Hmmm...

From earlier today:
"Iranian officials have warned that the US is relocating the militants from Syria to Afghanistan"
ISIS for their safe passage out of Dodge. Relocation could be to Afghanistan? 
Or Pakistan? And, yes, I have Pakistan in mind for a very specific reason.
Two terror attacks emanating from Pakistan in days of one another. Moving ISIS to Afghanistan is the same as moving them to Pakistan.
Go back to  Dec 2017: 

 French ISIS Fighters Relocate to Afghanistan from Syria

 
 The myriad of death, destruction and mayhem strands interwoven to reshape a region is most likely unimaginable to most of us.

Certainly the dots connected here merely scratch the surface.


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