Wednesday, August 15, 2018

Firas Tlass: SAA Will Invade Idleb with Russian and Turkish Help

Firas Tlass: SAA Will Invade Idleb with Russian and Turkish Help

 When I stumbled across this latest article my first thought was ‘wow, that’s a blast from the past’ Long, long time readers might remember the spin around the man named Manaf Tlass and his exit from Syria. Firas Tlass is Manaf’s brother. According to the information I’ve had access to. 
 There was very big media spin in 2012 about the significance of this man’s ‘defection’ and what a betrayal it was to the Assad government. I could only conclude, at that time, it had all been one big western media spin/propaganda/perception management psyop.

Flashbacks:
Firas Tlass

And then nadda. Zip. Zero. Zilch. 6 years later, it still seems to me it was a psyop.

Let’s read what Firas Tlass has to say, at this time, about the Idlib operation, yet to come:

I'm not sure how Firas has come to have this information, but, it jibes with information from two of last weeks post so I'm going to draw attention to it. He certainly appears to have an insider perspective

 "Firas Tlass, the son of the former Syrian Defense Minister Mustafa Tlass, spoke in an audio recording about Russian-Turkish discussions which would allow Russian and Turkish military police and regime civilian police to enter Idleb and then deliver the province to the regime. 
Tlass called on the rebel groups in the area to surrender the region to the regime and withdraw, because the plan requires it.

Tlass claimed that the plan called for the expulsion of Al-Nusra Front and the Jund al-Aqsa and al-Turkestan factions to the areas under the control of what he called the Kurdish militias, noting that the Syrian Democratic Forces were at their forefront.

Tlass said that Turkey was putting pressure on Jund al-Aqsa and al-Turkestan to fight Kurdish forces and to expel these groups to the area between Jarablus and Al-Bab Al-Rai’e, and that the Russians have reservations about this.

Tlass said that expelling these groups to Kurdish areas will create a new Islamic State, leading to a Turkish alliance with the regime, and the Americans agreeing to the regime taking control of Kurdish-controlled areas.
He states expelling these terrorists will create a "new" Islamic state? Though he's talking about sending them to their allied Kurdish militias. KurdIShIS.... again!

A Turkish alliance with the Syrian government which will see the Americans allowing the Syrian government allied with the Turks to take control of unlawfully annexed Syrian territory.
Sounds good to me!
Tlass recommended that the rebel groups avoid “heroics” and expressed his hope that civil society leaders in Idleb would communicate with Turkey to be part of the dialogue, as well as his hope that civilians would be safe. He warned against Idleb falling victim to the stubbornness of Tahrir al-Sham and Russia.

Tlass has previously discussed in an audio message the fate of his hometown al-Rastan, in which he addressed the head of the regime intelligence agencies in the city and told him that in an effort to preserve the dignity of Syrians, he was in touch with the Russians at Hemeimeem Base and with rebel groups in the area and said in the recording at the time: “If security is achieved in northern Homs and the southern Hama countryside, it can be a role model.”
Interesting, no? Jibes with these two posts

Is Turkey Sleepwalking Out of the Alliance? Incirlik, Brunson, S-400's

Carnegie Europe
"Turkey’s resolve to acquire the Russian strategic defensive weapon system S-400 Triumf raises the prospect of a severe damage to NATO and, by extension, to transatlantic security.

    The Turkish – American bilateral relationship is in a deep crisis. An alliance that took shape in the early post-War years has entered a period of heavy turbulence with an ever-growing set of unresolved disputes. This unprecedented cumulation of bilateral disputes is burdening a relationship vital to transatlantic security. It is also compounding efforts to settle differences with linkages being established between unrelated topics leading to an ever more difficult environment for diplomatic negotiations. The way forward requires a willingness to disconnect these problems from each other so that some confidence building can be engineered by individually resolving these disagreements.

    With this understanding, this report will focus on one of these disagreements. Turkey is planning to acquire an advanced Russian strategic defensive weapon system, known as the S-400 Triumf. There is however rising concern in the US about this purchase by a NATO ally. Indeed the fear is that, even if not networked, potential backdoors in the S-400 system could study critical operational data and electromagnetic signatures of the high-end aircraft, and transmit them to the Russian military intelligence.

A strategic defensive weapon
Recall this quote?
     "So if the US does not plan to attack Turkey or support those who intend to attack it, they don't need to be afraid of the S-400 deal. If the American goal is to deprive Turkey of the defense system and attack it, then this is a completely different matter," Bozkurt concluded.
CE:  "The prospect of sanctions has therefore been raised in addition to Congressional initiatives to prevent deliveries of the F-35 Lightning II to Turkey due to the risks of operating the S-400 and the F-35 together. Yet Ankara’s resolve regarding its potential acquisition of the S-400 seems unaffected despite the rising political and military costs.
    Both Ankara and Washington are so far acting in a way that is oblivious to the real consequences of such a scenario of divergence.
    The case that we make in this detailed report is that a failure to eventually reach an understanding on the now interlinked S-400 & F-35 issue can potentially affect Turkey’s capability to act as an interoperable and capable NATO ally. In other words, this disagreement raises the prospect of a severe damage to the NATO Alliance, and by extension, to transatlantic security.
    One mooted option has been for Turkey’s F-35s to be delivered through several degradations ensuring that the aircraft is handed over without connection to the ALIS cloud-based network. However, such a degradation will cut Turkey’s F-35s’ from rest of the global F-35 fleet around the world. Maintenance, life cycle, and operation costs will inevitably increase, and the Turkish military-industrial com-plex will have much less access to the engineering and supply chain."

It appears the F-35's aren’t going to Turkey any time soon, if at all.

Haaretz: "A newly-signed defense bill stalls delivering the fighter jets pending a Pentagon report on Ankara-Washington relations, reports say
The policy, now signed into law, prohibits delivering the F-35s pending a Pentagon report on the relations between Ankara and Washington, which is due in 90 days. The report is expected to assess the risks presented by Turkey purchasing the S-400 missile defense system from Russia"

 CE:   "Washington’s intent to link the supply of the F-35s to Turkey to political conditions, like the release of the jailed pastor Brunson is incongruous. The US would naturally work diplomatically to get the release of the jailed pastor as its citizen. But seeking to leverage the potential delivery of the F-35s for this purpose is greatly misplaced. The threat is incommensurate with its long-term implications. It underestimates the negative impact, not only for the Turkey-US relationship but also more generally for transatlantic security, of Turkey not being able to get the delivery of this fifth-generation multirole aircraft. The linkage with Turkey’s acquisition of the S-400 from Russia, however, is more relevant"

Let’s stop calling Brunson a pastor, ok? He’s not. Not really.  Much more realistically speaking the man is a CIA agent. Most assuredly involved in arms smuggling. I’m quite comfortable making that statement. Writing an entire post on it last week:

Digression, but, related:
The news (?) regarding Turkey wanting to raid Incirlik (which was posted all over the place including but not limited to Zero Hedge, as spun by Jason Ditz ,of   the extremely questionable Anti-war)  that originated with the  "Stockholm Centre for Freedom" is extremely dubious.
"According to the report, lawyers working for the the Association for Social Justice and Aid (Toplumsal Adalet ve Yardımlaşma Derneği in Turkish, or TAY-DER), a front NGO that was set up on June 15, 2016."
A Front NGO for who or what? Click the link provided for Tay-Der (above) and you go where??? Directly to another page from the Stockholm Centre!  Making an initial claim backed up their own previous claim? All the while providing no proof for any of their assertions
 Stockholm Centre for Freedom is spooky. Or questionable. With an "about us" that is vague. And that's being kind.

   CE:  "In our view, Ankara would need to adopt a political and diplomatic strategy that takes fully into account of this inevitable conclusion that the acquisition of the S-400s will have ramifications for the supply and operationalization of the F-35s. Either the US will need to be convinced that the delivery of the F-35s to a country that operates the Russia-made S-400s is not a real threat to the integrity of network-centric NATO platforms, or that the threat of cyber hacking –or digital espionage– emanating from the S-400s can categorically be eliminated, or Turkey would need to forego the acquisition – or at the very least the operationalization– of the S-400s. At present, there seem to be no real third options for Turkish policy-makers to sidestep these binary and mutually exclusive options.

Why would Turkey bother to acquire the S-400 if they had no intent of using the S-400 as a defensive system

Tuesday, August 14, 2018

Lavrov in Ankara to talk Syria and 4 Party Summit

DS

 Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov arrived in Ankara yesterday for talks that will continue today to discuss issues related to Syria.

The Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement yesterday that Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov would visit Ankara on Monday and Tuesday to discuss the four-way meeting with his Turkish counterpart.

The statement also said that a four-way Syria summit "is planned in the upcoming future," with the leaders of Russia, France, Turkey and Germany attending. The summit is of great significance as the four countries have taken an initiative to resolve regional issues at a fragile time.

The summit was first announced by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on July 28 in Johannesburg, South Africa, where he attended the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) summit. Erdogan underlined that the four countries will take up a wide-ranging set of issues, including Iraq. The summit focusing on Syria and the wider region will be held in Istanbul on Sept. 7 with participation of the most senior representatives from Turkey, Russia, France a nd Germany.
Erdogan at a BRICS summit announcing a meeting of parties opposed to Iranian sanctions.
Wrap your mind around that and tell me it's not connected to the "economic terrorism" (hattip Scott @ Willy Loman) being waged against Turkey most harshly. But also Russia.

The four countries are also known to have been opposing the sanctions of the United States on Iran. Turkey, Russia and the European Union are against severing economic ties with Iran.

Sunday, August 12, 2018

The Sun Doesn't Rise Because the Rooster Crows: Turkey's Currency Crisis Created To Force an IMF Bailout

I've been reading about Turkey's currency crisis 'round the net. 
There seem to be some authors that are confusing correlation with causation.
These op/eds put forth the idea that the fundamentals of Turkey's economy are the reason for the currency crisis.  

 I disagree and suggest that these persons are confusing correlation and causation. Explainer:
Post hoc ergo propter hoc (Latin: ‘after this, therefore because of this’ – often shortened to post hoc) is a logical fallacy that states ‘Since Event B followed Event A, Event B must have been caused by Event A
The invalid assumption that correlation implies cause is probably among the two or three most serious and common errors of human reasoning.- Stephen Jay Gould, American evolutionary biologist and author, 1981
OR as per my headline:
‘The rooster crows immediately before sunrise, therefore the rooster causes the sun to rise’
That is confusing correlation with causation.
But don't tell a rooster that ;)

 Intentionally or not? It doesn't matter. This confusion serves to obfuscate much of the reality surrounding Turkey.

 While ignoring/downplaying years of systemic attacks against Turkey. 

Planting the idea that the latest currency crisis is not just another in a long series of destabilization tactics that have been employed for years now. And is in fact something Turkey's leadership is responsible for. Is a convenient and very pro 5/6 eyes/banker narrative. 

 The tactics have included but are not limited to financial downgrades- a coup attempt- arming Turkey's internal enemies- A protest (that quickly ran out of steam because it didn't have broad support)  and while becoming more enlightened,  I realized positively stunk of a western fomented/Gene Sharp action. Yes, I'm recalling the Gezi Park protests.
Protests in Turkey: Simmering Anger at Erdogan? Or just another coup?
At that time (2013) I'd thought these protests might be legitimate, but, still entertained the possibility that something else might be afoot. 
Quoting from that post:
Protestors Military Provided Gas Mask
"Another threat may also be lurking. In Istanbul, people have begun whispering that the military is distributing gasmasks -- but to the demonstrators rather than to the police. The message is clear: The military supports the protests. The story is certainly consistent with the Turkish military's traditional role in society"
The opinion piece authors that I've read, as of late, suggest that Turkey's debt levels are too high. And that this debt fueled joy ride is the cause of this currency crisis. 

If that was really the case, it would seem to me the debt fueled joy ride in Canada, on every level from federal to provincial government, corporate and finally on to the consumer debts levels which are astronomical here should have also resulted in a currency crisis.  But, that hasn't happened.

 It's very clear there is much more to this recent crisis then meets the eye

As someone who has written about the take down of Turkey for years now and have noted on several occasions that this slow move towards alienating a NATO ally that has been ignored all the way around- Really ignored all around. Despite so very many signs. 

I'd expected that this day would come.  And here it is.

So, let's address reality and not some anglo zionist banker friendly narrative.  
You know the one that always blames the intended victim for the crime being perpetrated against it? Because that is ALWAYS how these take downs are handled. 
In all my years of blogging. Over a decade now- This is the normal narrative.
It was Assad's fault. Ghadafi's fault. Saddam's fault.
It's Putin's fault that this or that is occurring.  In the case of Turkey were to believe it's Erdogan's fault. It's never that simple. As we see time and time again the leader of any of the already mentioned states  had become or is presently the convenient scapegoat/justification to target and take down the nation they lead.
This is the pushing of the cult of personality- it's a straight up ad hominem tactic- 
Cult of personality can be presented as this individual is all good or this individual is all bad 
Hitler has a huge cult of personality presence.  Mostly all bad.
This method is tirelessly employed to justify waging a desired war. People fall for it time and time again. And it's employed for the very same reason propaganda is used. To distract from reality.

An old comment brought forth because it's as relevant today as it was then
However simplistic one dimensional cartoon character like presentations "cult of personality' are always used as a tool of distraction. Which is why I don't get into it.
Targeting Turkey for Take Down

In June of 2013- though not clear, it sure looked as if something was a-fowl in Turkey
Turkey + Gladio + NATO = Is pressure being applied to Turkey?

In this post I'd pointed out that all was not well between the US and Turkey. Something was off. Pressure was being applied.  I cited a congressional PDF as a source and quoted this:
"The overall U.S. policy toward Turkey is largely determined by the United
States’ need and appreciation for Turkey as a strategic partner and NATO ally"
It's very clear that US policy towards Turkey is only based on what serves the needs and interests of the US.  It's stated quite bluntly.

At that time additional observations were shared
Which could tell us that the US policy, being determined by the US's need for Turkey as a strategic partner and ally, can change depending on whatever 'need' the US determines is strategic at the time it is setting policy.
My uncertainty disappeared in November/ 2013.
When it became clear to me that, yes, the US was done with Turkey I self published a pile of posts demonstrating that US usefulness for Turkey had run it's course.  
It seemed I was alone  in seeing this as fact? Apparently the idea that NATO would turn on one of it's own was not easily accepted by many. Or some were obfuscating the reality as part of the 5 eyes msm or alt media. Below are a mere handful of posts  starting in 2013 covering the US betrayal of their decades long ally.
Finally in 2016,  Scott from Willy Loman's dropped by with this comment
 Got this message from Willy Loman:link to post and video from fake peace group
hi Penny. If you have a chance please check out my article today. its about exactly what you are writing here. A fake peace group is pushing regime change propaganda for Turkey, essentially blaming Erdogan for the entire 5 year CIA/NATO operation in Syria and it ends with praise of the glorious Kurds. They are now going all out. I would love for someone like yourself to take apart his Sunsteinesque cognitive infiltration effort. I did the best I could, but I am still very sick. please have a look if you can.
And the post below was written by yours truly and I knew, finally, I was no longer alone :) 
Yes, Willy Loman, It’s about Blamin’ & Framin’ Turkey & Saudi Arabia

And I continued on writing about the many attacks against Turkey- 
Including the post of a few days ago- US Sanctions Turkey Over the arrest of CIA Pastor Brunson

While much of the media, alt and msm, continued with fake news about Turkey annexing Mosul and other such rubbish. All the while ignoring the targeting of Turkey. Many of these same places and spaces are writing about the debt crisis etc. as a reason for the currency crisis- And they all  read very much like the article  I will be linking below from American Enterprise Institute-
  The same think tank that put forth the idea years ago that Turkey was heading for partition..(Is Turkey Heading to Partition? American Enterprise Institute)
 Coincidental ? I don't think so. A partitioned Turkey would be part of the remade region.
Forcing Turkey into submission will assist with the partition plan. 
 Additionally it is think tanks and NGO's that spread many ideas/talking points thru to the masses, via the media, alt and main stream. Which would explain the dissemination of similar views . Maybe people don't think too much about the ideas being spread. Maybe they don't question them? I'm guilty of questioning it all. And thinking. 
As my husband tells me..."You think way too much"
Many years ago Turkey paid it's debt off to the IMF. That meant they were a nation not so tightly constrained by global banking cartel or the US. This currency crisis has been created to force Turkey back into debt servitude and bring it to heel under the edicts of the US

 You'll notice the AEI headline is one that wants the readers to believe Mr Erdogan as out of touch with reality. That's not the case.

AEI "Planet Earth to Mr Erdogan"

Create a crisis. An investor confidence crisis that can be used to 'encourage' Turkey to take a bailout from the IMF. The US is the biggest stakeholder in the IMF. 
Problem, Reaction, Solution. And if Turkey takes the bailout they will become trapped. No longer will they be able to make independent decisions for their own well being. They will take orders.
"One also has to wonder how long it will take him to realize that his country has little realistic option but to approach the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for assistance to restore investor confidence."
Much as it might be odious to Mr. Erdogan, the sad truth of the matter is that his country desperately needs foreign financing if it is to stay afloat and to avoid a banking sector meltdown. 

 Seemingly blind to his country’s desperate need for foreign financing"
Why I thought foreign financing was the problem? Was the reason for all Turkey's woes?
How is more foreign debt going to solve this crisis?

"Experience teaches that once a government loses investor confidence that confidence becomes very difficult to restore. That is why it would appear that Mr. Erdogan has little realistic alternative but to turn to the IMF if Turkey is to stabilize its currency and its financial markets"
You see it's experience that 'teaches' a government when the investors lose confidence a nation must run to the IMF for a bailout to restore that investor confidence? 
You understand that logic right? When 'investors' are targeting your currency and they've lost 'confidence' you must get indebted to the IMF to bail these investors out. To restore their confidence in your currency. Targeting a currency to bring a nation down is nothing new under the sun.
"By providing an outside seal of approval for a credible economic adjustment program and by requiring concrete and upfront policy adjustment measures, the IMF can help quickly restore investor confidence in Turkey in a way that verbal assurances by Mr. Erdogan at this late stage in the game cannot.
Approaching the IMF will be far from easy for Mr. Erdogan. Not only will he have to effectively admit how misguided his economic policies have been to date; he will also first have to mend fences with the United States, the IMF’s largest shareholder which has an effective veto on an IMF program for Turkey.

  Sadly, Turkey’s economic crisis might very well have to deepen before Mr. Erdogan comes around to the view that the IMF is Turkey’s last hope for economic salvation."

Can it get any plainer? The currency crisis was contrived to force Turkey back into line.
To make Turkey submissive, docile and obedient. Deals with Russia? S-400. Pipelines. Nuclear power plants. Partnership with the SCO? Part of the silk road with China?  Standing in the way of the middle east remake?  Astana Partnership?Turkey is not, has not, been going along with the 5 eyes for years and years now. The currency crisis was created to bring them to heel!
It's not Erdogan's fault. That's absurd. That's a convenient and friendly banker 5/6 eyes nation narrative. But it's not reality. This IS WAR.

There may be another part to this or not. Not certain, but, I will end with the WSJ article

In Break From Precedent, Trump’s Moves Aggravate Turkey’s Currency Crisis, Rather Than Calm It

 "President Trump’s decision to double steel tariffs on Turkey as its government battled a currency collapse marked a departure for the U.S. from how it traditionally handles financial turmoil hitting emerging markets."

Trump's tariff moves prove, to my mind, that the currency crisis is contrived. And will be exacerbated until Turkey crawls to the IMF, in which case the US will dictate the harshest of terms imaginable. 

The other option is for Turkey to stand tall and reach out to other parties.

Friday, August 10, 2018

Turkey and Russia Coordinate for the Move on Idlib- Moving Terrorists Eastward?

I'm not using the Janes lingo of Russia pressuring Turkey.

 There is no need for "pressure"  since Russia, Turkey and Iran have coordinated all this time via their Astana partnership.

Erdogan and Putin were in contact today and it's very likely Idlib was discussed along with the situation with the Turkish lira- I'm going to get to that asap. For now Idlib.

TASS

Presidents Vladimir Putin of Russia and Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey have positively assessed the implementation of joint projects, in particular in the energy sector, the Kremlin press service said on Friday after their telephone conversation.

The presidents discussed the current state and prospects for further development of mutually beneficial trade and economic cooperation between the two countries," the Kremlin said. "They positively assessed the implementation of joint strategic projects, first of all, in the energy sector."

The two leaders also discussed a schedule for further contacts at various levels.

A source in the Turkish president’s administration told journalists earlier that the two presidents had discussed latest development in Syria and settlement efforts in the Astana format.

 Janes

Key Points

1- IHS Markit data indicates that non-state armed groups that we have classified as ‘jihadist opposition’ have been contained by Turkey and its proxies in a pocket of control around Idlib. 

2-Turkey is likely to yield to pressure from Russia, which effectively controls airspace over Idlib, to withdraw its observation posts from this area ahead of a major government operation. 


Recall the observation posts featured in yesterday's article? How Russia, Turkey, and Iran are Going to Avoid a Battle for Idlib

Here they are again

 Turkish outposts are situated just inside the provincial borders of Idlib. While Russian and Iranians are just outside of the borders. With Russia effectively controlling the airspace they are coordinating with the Turkish military, who are manning the outposts, to have them evacuate the outposts ahead of the Syrian offensive. 

According to Janes- the Turks have contained the opposition in a pocket of Idlib. And with the tacit, more probably the active & helpful,  approval of the Syrian government. The jihadists are going east.  To territory occupied by Americans and PKK. Wagons ho!


3-Jihadists will probably seek to transfer to eastern Syria, with tacit acceptance if not active facilitation by the government, to increase pressure on the US-led coalition to leave Syria.

As I had stated yesterday in my post:

It's really much more beneficial for regional stability that the Astana partners work together to deal with the Idlib situation in a more measured, careful manner.  That's my opinion. And to my mind it makes much more sense for the actual preservation of Syrian sovereignty.
I'd also left a comment regarding this situation at Syper's 
that ended with this observation
"My hope is Idlib is cleared and returned to the Syria state- This will take much wind out of the PKK/US sails in the east. IMO Kurdish ‘negotiations’ with Damascus have been somewhat disingenuous. (Buying time)"
 If the Russians, Iranians, Turks and Syrians coordinate to shift the terrorists out of Idlib and into the occupied east- It could encourage the US to give up the occupation. It will also give many of the mercs/terrorist/killers  a way out of  Syria via Iraq.  From there they can head who knows where? Time will tell.

Update # 1: Russian-Turkish Coordination on Limited Idlib Battle
It is an unnamed source, but, in this case the reports fit everything I've covered the past couple of days

 A Russian source told Asharq Al-Awsat Thursday that the expected visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Ankara early next week comes in light of information about a possible agreement between concerned parties to facilitate the control of Syria’s Idlib province without causing huge damages.

Despite a Syrian military preparation to start the battle of Idlib, the Russian source said, “There could be an agreement to facilitate the takeover of Idlib without causing immense damages.”
 
“We expect a mixed military operation in Idlib that would reflect complex alliances,” the source said in a sign that any agreement in the province would probably be a reproduction of the scenario of control implemented in the south of Syria, amid differences among rebels concerning the role of Jabhat al-Nusra.

He said that a large number of opposition fighters could join the Syrian Army and the Russians to confront al-Nusra and its allied forces. “We would witness an alliance of the fait accompli on the ground,” the source explained.

Jan Egland UN Advisor said “The war cannot be allowed to go to Idlib. Idlib is a very special place, it is the place where people fled”

As was covered in yesterday's post; The UN Senior Advisor for Syria Jan Egeland says Russia, Turkey, and Iran told UN humanitarian meeting that they would do their utmost to avoid a battle for Idlib.

Thursday, August 9, 2018

How Russia, Turkey, and Iran are Going to Avoid a Battle for Idlib

 I've added an update at the bottom- a map, which should be very helpful to understanding the situation on the ground in and around Idlib- scroll down

Following up on: Sochi: Iran, Russia & Turkey Talk Syria. Refugee Returns & Idlib

Where I'd commented:
Finally, Idlib

Where there is this idea, being presented, that Syria will take Idlib back by force!
I do not think this is realistic. Or necessary.  Not at this time, anyway.
Considering their are three Astana partners involved in the process.
Here's hoping Idlib can be resolved diplomatically.
Going by some of the reports I've read today it looks as if Iran, Russia and Turkey are trying to AVOID a battle for Idlib.

If Syria were to simply rush in and battle for Idlib as some persons suggest, the US and their PKK allies would take advantage of the chaos that would surely result. And Rojova will extend ever closer to the Mediterranean. Which is what the US and Israel both want!

It's really much more beneficial for regional stability that the Astana partners work together to deal with the Idlib situation in a more measured, careful manner.  That's my opinion. And to my mind it makes much more sense for the actual preservation of Syrian sovereignty.


Link

The UN Senior Advisor for Syria Jan Egeland says Russia, Turkey, and Iran told UN humanitarian meeting that they would do their utmost to avoid a battle for Idlib.
Probably small de-escalation areas will be established, and full controlled humanitarian corridors will be set up.
By these actions, civilians will be supported with medical aid, water, and food.
Currently, Syrian AF leaflets messages calling to end the war and the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) is trying to negotiate with small opposing groups and villages throughout Idlib province.

I had left a comment and link to the Daily Mail regarding this news at Syper's- where far too many commenters seem to want a confusing, messy battle in Idlib- Which will only open the doors to the USrael regional remake. As stated above. Every opportunity provided, any misstep will be taken advantage of by the US/PKK parked in eastern Syria. It's what they are waiting for.

Here's another link to news of leaflets being dropped
"The warning came as government helicopters dropped leaflets over towns in Idlib’s eastern countryside urging people to surrender, an AFP correspondent said.
“The war is nearing an end … We are calling on you to join the local reconciliations, as many of our people in Syria did,” said the leaflets, which were stamped with the military’s seal.
Such surrender deals typically see rebels hand over territory to government troops in exchange for a halt to shelling, the return of state institutions, and a chance to either join regime forces or be bussed out of the area"
Back to Inside Syria Media 
In this regard, it should not be forgotten the success of the SAA in al-Suweida province as well as Assad’s amnesty to the opposing forces and terrorists.
Meanwhile, Advisor said the United Nations would ask Turkey to continue to open its borders to civilians if a battle broke out in Idlib.
Turkey asserts that it is working to keep Idlib a safe area for Syrians along with the northern countryside of Aleppo, and warns European countries of the possibility of massive waves of displacement towards them may not be able to stop them.
My hope is that Idlib is cleared in as orderly a fashion as possible all things considered. 

UPDATE Begins:

I'm including a map here showing the outposts manned by the 3 Astana Partners in and around Idlib 

 MAP: Iranian , Turkish and Russian troops encircling Idlib province

The Russian ministry of defense has published its own battlefield map for the northwestern Syrian province of Idlib, highlighting the Iranian , Turkish and Russian outposts on the province borders.

1- The yellow triangles: the Turkish observation points which were established during the last few months from the western countryside of Aleppo, to the mountain of Eshtabraq in the far south of Idlib countryside.

2 – The red triangles: the Russian observation points, which will be created in front of the points of the Turkish army.

3 – Green Triangles, the Iranian observation points, which will be established intensively in the southern countryside of Aleppo, in addition to two points in the countryside of Hama and rural Idlib.

From earlier: Canada's own Donald Trump/Chrystia Freeland and her twitter diplomacy

Chrystia Freeland Channels Trump’s Twitter “Diplomacy”- Revisiting Canada’s 15 Billion Dollar Saudi Arms Deal

Yesterday:

Trudeau's Gun Control Ideology Doesn't Apply to Ukraine: Sniper Rifles Ready to Go

 Understanding the targeting of Turkey:

US Sanctions Turkey Over the arrest of CIA Pastor Brunson

Chrystia Freeland Channels Trump’s Twitter “Diplomacy”- Revisiting Canada’s 15 Billion Dollar Saudi Arms Deal

Wonder how many people thought about the fact that Chrystia Freeland employed the Trump playbook method allegedly engaging in diplomacy for twits on twitter?

 As opposed to the reality of a twit's (a silly or foolish person) twittiness on twitter being a distraction from something else. 
Isn't it interesting that a twit is a silly or foolish person?
-Should that definition inform us all about the twitter reality?
-The concept behind twitter? 
-The reason for the creation of twitter?

Personally speaking. This row between Saudi Arabia and Canada is a smoke screen. I’m just not certain at this time what Canada’s virtue signalling government is hiding. Or if it's some attempt at PR?  I don’t think it’s to mask the 15 billion dollar arms deal. But, I’ll happily point out the hypocrisy of the Trudeau government's claim to support human rights


 Bloomberg
In an age when foreign policy is conducted increasingly by social media, Saudi Arabia’s reaction to a pair of Canadian tweets is a reminder that diplomacy by Twitter comes with a few risks.

Real foreign policy is not conducted via social media. But fodder for the dupe consumption is
The tweets, from Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland and via her ministry’s main Twitter account, expressed concern over the latest arrests of social activists in Riyadh. In response, Saudi Arabia suspended diplomatic ties and new trade dealings with Canada, ordered the expulsion of Canada’s ambassador to Riyadh, and recalled its own envoy from Ottawa. The Saudi foreign ministry’s explanation for these measures is that the Canadian criticism was “an affront to the kingdom that requires a sharp response to prevent any party from attempting to meddle with Saudi sovereignty.”

    Very alarmed to learn that Samar Badawi, Raif Badawi’s sister, has been imprisoned in Saudi Arabia. Canada stands together with the Badawi family in this difficult time, and we continue to strongly call for the release of both Raif and Samar Badawi.
    — Chrystia Freeland (@cafreeland) August 2, 2018
This is hard to credit. ( Isn't it interesting when the media points out the tweet is hard to credit to Ms Freeland, but, were ok to credit everything to Bana in Syria, rather then her mother) Riyadh’s human-rights record routinely attracts criticism — which the authorities brush off just as routinely. Only last week the United Nations human-rights office said it was alarmed about the “seemingly arbitrary detentions” of activists, and called for their unconditional release. This was not met with anything like the fury evoked by the Canadian tweets.
One explanation for the selective Saudi outrage is Freeland’s high profile. Another is the prominence of the female activist named in the two tweets: Samar Badawi, one of the kingdom’s best known activists, and winner of the U.S. State Department’s 2012 International Women of Courage award. She is also the sister of Saudi Arabia’s most famous political dissident, Raif Badawi, who has been in jail since 2012. Freeland herself has appealed for Raif Badawi’s release (his wife and three children are Canadian citizens), only to be told that Canada should mind its own business.
So the minister can hardly have expected a different answer this time. Nor could she have been unmindful of the fact that in 2015, Saudi Arabia briefly recalled its ambassador to Stockholm when Sweden’s foreign minister cited Raif Badawi’s treatment in a broader criticism of Riyadh’s human-rights record. Freeland’s tweet was bound to get a strong reaction.
And then there are the personalities and political concerns of the two young leaders in Ottawa and Riyadh: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, widely known by his initials, MBS. “Both sides are playing politics here,” says Ali Shihabi, founder of the Arabia Foundation, a Washington think-tank. Trudeau, he argues, is “grand-standing and posturing on women’s rights” to compensate for an unpopular decision to persist with a $12 billion deal to sell Saudi Arabia armored personnel carriers. The Canadian criticism, unnecessarily public, certainly smacks a little of virtue-signaling.
Yes, the virtuous Trudeau government.. 
Sending sniper rifles to Ukraine. 

Trudeau's Gun Control Ideology Doesn't Apply to Ukraine: Sniper Rifles Ready to Go

Selling 15 billion dollars of weapons to Saudi Arabia.  Trudeau claimed these were just jeeps?
Not giving a hoot about a Canadian women imprisoned in Germany for an opinion.

Do everything you can to save  Monika  Schaefer from her ongoing unjust and immoral imprisonment. - Joseph Hickey
In a letter signed by executive director Joseph Hickey, the association calls on Justice Minister Jody Wilson-Raybould and Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland to act immediately, starting with appointing a consular observer and direct contact for Schaefer.
Chrystia Freeland is a pretend human rights protector- Or as I say- Canada is for human rights when it's serves the NATO world order- And when it doesn't? Canada is as despotic as the rest.

CBC
The $15 billion agreement was given the further blessing of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal government in the spring of 2016 when it began issuing permits for the export of the combat vehicles.

Trudeau claimed ‘jeeps’ were being purchased

“The order also includes 119 LAV 6 vehicles of the "heavy assault" type, with powerful 105 millimetre canons affixed to their turrets, which were still under development at the time the documents were written.

Another 119 are configured as "anti-tank" vehicles and a further 119 are designated as "direct fire" support, with a two-man turret and 30 millimetre chain gun.”

It also involves a 14-year support program that covers ammunition, crew "training in Canada/Europe" and "embedded" maintenance, with a fleet management team in 13 workshops.

Re-examining arms exports

Last summer, images surfaced online that showed Canadian-made armoured vehicles, manufactured by another company, being used by the Saudi state in its long-running conflict against the Shiite population in Qatif, a restive portion of eastern Saudi Arabia.

One of the video clips also showed a light armoured vehicle, apparently manufactured by GDLS, operating in the region of Awamiyah.

The Liberal government launched an investigation, which ended with "no conclusive evidence that Canadian made vehicles were used in human rights violations."

Freeland has shown no appetite to revisit the Saudi deal.
 Back to Bloomberg:
Since Freeland’s first salvo on Twitter, most of the social-media fire has come from the Saudi side, from government agencies supporting the crown prince and private citizens making increasingly fevered threats of retaliation — including a bizarre campaign to support Quebecois independence. An education ministry spokesman tweeted that the government would relocate all Saudi students (estimates range from 7,000 to 15,000) currently studying in Canada. The Saudi state airline is suspending flights to and from Toronto.

Under normal circumstances, this would be a moment for the U.S. to intercede, and broker a peace between its close allies. But given President Donald Trump’s own hostility to Trudeau, and his admiration of MBS, Canada cannot realistically expect assistance from Washington. Indeed, it might be asking a lot for Trump to desist from joining the Twitter pile-on, with his own broadsides against Trudeau: the American president, like the Saudi prince, isn’t known for being gentle with allies.
Perhaps the US wants the Saudi's to break the big weapons deal with Canada and send business to US manufacturers?
For Riyadh and Ottawa, the only course is now to wait for the storm to pass, and then to begin the process of restoring relations the old-fashioned way, with quiet parleys. There’s a lesson for Freeland, and for diplomats everywhere: tweet less, talk more.
I'm in the camp, as mentioned that this is a smokescreen. And feel certain that this will quiet down and everything will go back to 'business as usual' for both regimes.
 
Yaya covered this episode at her site : canada's phoney war of words with the saudis
Her and I exchanged a number of comments with additional links included
 

Additional reading: Financial Post