Israel to “improve coordination” with Moscow After Plane Shootdown Incident

From earlier today: Idlib Agreement A Victory for Syria As Trade Routes Reopen

Following up on:

• 1-Israeli Military Delegation Heading to Moscow to Present Il-20 Findings

Reuters

“Israel said on Thursday it would not halt strikes on Syria but would do more to “deconflict” them with Russian forces, after Moscow accused it of “irresponsible and unfriendly actions” that led to Syrian ground fire mistakenly downing a Russian plane.

Although Russian President Vladimir Putin initially described the downing as “tragic chance”, Moscow has made its anger clear.

“Moscow views as irresponsible and unfriendly actions of Israeli Air Force, which exposed Russian Il-20 aircraft to danger and led to death of 15 servicemen,” the Russian embassy in Tel Aviv said on Twitter in English, adding that Russia would “take all necessary measures to eliminate threat to life and security of our military fighting against terrorism”.
Israel dispatched its air force chief to brief Moscow about the incident on Thursday. Expressing regret at the loss of life, Israel denied wrongdoing and blamed what it called wanton Syrian anti-aircraft fire after its jets had withdrawn back over the border”

Wanton Syrian anti aircraft fire after Israel’s jets had withdrawn over the border?
What a claim! Let’s break it down.

-Israel should not be attacking Syria.  Since Israel is attacking Syria it’s obvious that Syria should and would protect itself. So “wanton anti aircraft fire” is a rather self serving claim, ( big surprise) on Israel’s part.
-Withdrawn over the border?  What border is Israel referring to? Lebanon’s border? Notice the statement doesn’t mention the jets withdrew back across the Israeli border. We need some clarity on that!

-Syria's fault?  Implied in the statement is the fault for this incident lying with Syria due to the great distance “across the border” they were wantonly using their anti aircraft fire. Again Israel should not be launching airstrikes on Syria for the multiple hundreds of times they have!

Here’s where we might be getting back to the exploitation of information found immediaely preceding the attack. Information regarding the distance Syrian anti aircraft fire was willing to engage.

Mentioned in this post

• 2-Did the Idlib Deal Result in Retribution Delivered by Israel and France?

“Naftali Bennett, another member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s security cabinet, said “deconfliction mechanisms” would be improved, referring to a Russian-Israeli hotline designed to avoid inadvertent clashes with forces Moscow sent to Syria as part of a military intervention mounted in 2015.

“We will of course strengthen these mechanisms. We will do everything so as not to harm anyone we do not intend to, God forbid,” Bennett told Army Radio in a separate interview. “

Deconfliction mechanisms were already in place. And had been since 2015- One way to improve them would be for Israel to use them in a timely fashion.  As mentioned in previous post (2) 
Since this mechanism has been available to them for the past 3 years. 

One last item of interest: Regarding the question of recognizing friends or foes?

RT 

It seems the answer to this question  (2)"There is a question of why the Syrian system didn't recognize the Russian plane as a friendly? Is answered below:

The Russian Defense Ministry has described as “amateur fantasies” claims that the Il-20 military plane was hit in Syria due to a failure in the friend-foe identification system. Each state has its own Identification Friend or Foe (IFF) system and Russia does not install its identification systems on armaments exported abroad, the ministry’s spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said Thursday.

There were no precedents where it had transferred IFF systems with Russian identification codes to other states. “All this fully applies to the domestic air defense systems delivered to the Syrian Arab Republic,” he said. “The IFF system of state recognition used by Russia is only used by aircraft and air defense systems identified as Russian.”

Idlib Agreement A Victory for Syria As Trade Routes Reopen

Idlib agreement a victory for Assad regime as trade routes to reopen
 
Definitely one plus in the Idlib agreement!

"Details of the agreement between Turkey and Russia on a demilitarised zone in the rebel-held northwestern province of Idlib, seen by The National, reveal a substantial victory for Damascus, even though it stalled a planned ground offensive there.

The announcement of the deal had at first appeared to deal a major blow to the Syrian government’s designs on the province. After weeks of building up forces around the edges and promising an attack, the Syrian army’s operation was nixed.

But the deal hammered out between Ankara and Moscow stipulates that two strategic highways running through the province be reopened to traffic by the end of the year, achieving a major aim of the planned government offensive without a shot being fired.

The M4 and M5 highways run from Latakia to Saraqib, and from Syria’s southern tip to the border with Turkey in the north – both have been cut off in Idlib since 2014.

Before the war, the M5 highway was a major trade route that connected the commercial hub of Aleppo to Damascus and on to the Jordanian border. The recapture of the two highways was seen as a likely first phase to a wider government assault on Idlib."

I’ve discussed the importance of opening the M-5 as well as the M-4 highways on more then a couple of occasions here at the blog- Which may be one reason why the Idlib deal came as far less of a surprise to me then most others:

• May 25/2018-Damascus- Gaziantep: Restoring Relations/Economic Interests or Both & More  

"Leaks from the Astana talks, between guarantor nations in Syria (Russia, Turkey and Iran), show that questions surround how the roads would be secured and the extent of economic interest for the conflicting parties"

•  June 16, 2018- Russian/Turkish deal for Tell Rifaat. The Micro & Macro along the Silk Road: Pepe Escobar

• June 20/18: Syria MUST Take Back Daraa

 "Reopening them would help resume trade between neighbouring Turkey and regime-held areas. The agreement says these steps are a way “to ensuring free movement of local residents and goods and restoring trade and economic relations”.

“Idlib is strategically relevant less as Idlib itself than as a crossroads between other more politically and economically significant provinces and as a gateway to Turkey,” said Sam Heller, a senior analyst at Crisis Group.

“For Damascus, reopening these roads is relevant economically as it attempts to reintegrate Syria economically and position itself for postwar reconstruction, and it has symbolic political value as another step towards a unified, state-controlled Syria,” he added.

You can see the full text of the Idlib document here

Or here

The re opening of the highways is written into the 10 point document. Check the 8th point out.

Israeli Military Delegation Heading to Moscow to Present Il-20 Findings

IDF Delegation Heads to Moscow

"A delegation of senior Israeli security officials is scheduled to fly to Russia early Thursday morning, in an attempt to resolve an ongoing dispute with the Kremlin regarding the downing of a Russian reconnaissance plane over Syria earlier this week.

Early Tuesday morning, an Ilyushin IL-20 turboprop reconnaissance was shot down, following an Israeli Air Force strike on a weapons development center in northern Syria.
According to an Israeli inquiry into the incident, the IL-20 was downed by one of the many surface-to-air missiles fired by the Syrian air defense network following the IAF strikes.

On Thursday, senior IDF officials, led by the Commander of the IAF, Maj. Gen. Amikam Norkin, will fly to Moscow in a bid to convince Russian security officials that Syrian surface-to-air missiles fired after the IAF jets had left the combat zone were responsible for the downing of the IL-20.

IAF commander and other IDF officials are expected to present the full IDF file on the incident, including the pre-mission information and the findings of the IDF inquiry regarding the event.

Along with the IAF commander, the delegation will include the chief of the International Cooperation Unit, Brig. Gen. Erez Maisel, as well as additional officers of the Intelligence Directorate, the IAF and the Operations Directorate.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that he backed the Russian Defense Ministry statement accusing Israel of downing the reconnaissance plane, but added that the incident appeared to be an accident.

Putin later spoke with Israeli premier Binyamin Netanyahu, who expressed “regret” over the downing of the IL-20 and the loss of all 15 crew members.

According to a statement by the Kremlin following the call, despite Israel’s denials, Putin called on Netanyahu to prevent similar incidents from occurring in the future."

  If it is the case, as Israeli news is reporting, that Putin called Netanyahu in order to prevent similar incidents from occurring in the future then it’s certainly being implied that Russia finds Israel culpable.

A picture from the official Syrian Arab News Agency reportedly shows Syrian air defence batteries responding to Israeli missiles in Damscus on September 15, 2018

Daily Mail

"Israel's air force commander will lead a delegation to Moscow to share the military's findings on the Syrian downing of a Russian warplane following Israeli air strikes, the army said Wednesday.

The delegation, led by Major General Amikam Norkin, would on Thursday "present the situation report... regarding all aspects" of the incident, the army said in a statement"

RT

“The group is led by the commander of Israeli air force, Major General Amikam Norkin, who will give Russians a “situation report” on the recent downing of a Russian Il-20 plane in Syria”

From earlier:

Did the Idlib Deal Result in Retribution Delivered by Israel and France?

Did the Idlib Deal Result in Retribution Delivered by Israel and France?

It's a question that needs asking. The timing is certainly suspect. But timing isn't everything.
It can be part of the whole picture. Might there be other aspects worth considering when thinking of the attack on the Russian plane as a message delivered via missile?

 Image and caption from Janes

An Il-20 with 15 personnel onboard was the unintended victim of Syrian air defence units that shot the aircraft down during an Israeli raid on 17 September.

 The Plane and it's crew gone-

"The four-engined turboprop with 15 personnel onboard disappeared over the Mediterranean Sea at the same time as the Israeli Air Force (IAF) was conducting air strikes against Syrian government targets in the coastal province of Latakia"

1- Israel failed to notify Russia in a timely fashion in advance of their attack per their deconfliction agreement. Why did they fail in their duties? 

Link

Moscow Defense Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said Tuesday there was no warning even though Israel's aviation control must have noticed the Russian aircraft as it was landing.
"Israel did not warn the command of the Russian troops in Syria about the planned operation," Konashenkov said. "We received a notification via a hotline less than a minute before the strike, which did not allow the Russian aircraft to be directed to a safe zone."

2- Were the Israelis' able to exploit publicly available knowledge to their advantage?

JANES “a Facebook post written by the SAA just prior warned that it could and would engage airborne threats out to “at least 100+ km”. That this post was written the day before the loss of the Il-20 suggested that the SAA’s air defence units were on a heightened state of alert, even by Syrian standards, increasing the chances of a mistake such as this.”

 Here's where I need some militarily minded person to assist. If Israel knew that Syrian air defences were engaging airborne threats out to at least a distance of 100+km, would this knowledge have given them the ability to use the Il-20 as a sitting duck?  Allowing them the opportunity to maneuver out of the way before being hit. Leaving the Il-20 as the unknowing target?

JANES “By using the Russian plane as a cover, the Israeli pilots made it vulnerable to Syrian air defence fire. As a result, the Il-20, its reflective surface being far greater than that of [the IAF] F-16s, was downed by a missile launched with the S-200 system,” Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) spokesman Igor Konashenkov was quoted by TASS as saying. The MoD noted that, while it had been given prior warning of the IAF attack, it came too late to have the Il-20 divert to a safe area"

There is a question of why the Syrian system didn't recognize the Russian plane as a friendly?
 I don't know how relevant that really is? If Syrian air defenses locked on the Israeli F-16 and it maneuvered out of the way.... leaving the Russian plane as the sitting target- Is that a question worth wasting time on? I'm really not sure that it is?

3- Impeding plans?

I do not think it is a coincidence that almost immediately after the Idlib deal is announced by Erdogan and Putin, Israel and France began attacking Syria. I had expected that the Idlib deal and all that it impedes would have garnered a response from those that have "other ideas".
 
 No. I’m not talking about Turkey and these imagined ‘dreams’ of a new or revamped Ottoman Empire. Which is a complete and total  red herring employed to obfuscate for US/Israeli expansionism  and border remake  done under the guise of Kurdistan creation.

Long story short a 'red herring' is a deliberate diversion of attention. 

I've read a ton of spin from 5 eyes alt and msm regarding this idea of "ottoman dreams" But not much REAL evidence to support it.  

What I'm referring to, as others divert your eyes/mind away, are plans that have been carried out since 2011, to destroy Syria and carve a big chunk of her territory away for that Israel 2.0 that’s been written about here for years now. And there is reams and reams of evidence to support this plan. I must have at least one hundred posts on the topic

2015- Kurdistan aka “Second Israel”- Ethnic Cleansing the Indigenous of the Middle East 

With regard to the possible stance of a Kurdish state toward Israel one may safely assume that it will be friendly to the Jewish state. For one thing, the Kurds will need the sympathy and support of another non-Arab state in the international arena. For another, the Kurds have never been in conflict with Israel 

The Map below has been around since 2006-

Blood Borders: A Proposal To Redraw A “New Middle East”

Why this Idlib Deal was such a shocker is beyond me

I’d written beginning in August of this year that Idlib had to be handled with care.

August 09/18: How Russia, Turkey, and Iran are Going to Avoid a Battle for Idlib

Yours truly “If Syria were to simply rush in and battle for Idlib as some persons suggest, the US and their PKK allies would take advantage of the chaos that would surely result. And Rojova will extend ever closer to the Mediterranean. Which is what the US and Israel both want!

It's really much more beneficial for regional stability that the Astana partners work together to deal with the Idlib situation in a more measured, careful manner.  That's my opinion. And to my mind it makes much more sense for the actual preservation of Syrian sovereignty.”

-This deal between Turkey Russia was, to my thinking, better for the preservation of Syrian sovereignty long run. If all goes well.

-This deal also blocked the US from attacking Syria as they took back Syrian territory.

-This deal also prevented the US from pulling off their chemical weapon psyop.

 Iran approves of the deal-

By facilitating the political settlement of Syria’s issues and considering all humanitarian aspects, the agreement can help the process to restore peace to Syria and end the life of terrorist groups in the country,” he said.

“Stopping violence and bloodshed while eliminating terrorism in the area is one the most basic and principled positions in Iran’s foreign policy,” he said.

Syria Accepts the Deal: From SANA

Damascus, SANA – Syria has welcomed the agreement on Idleb Province announced yesterday in the Russian city of Sochi, stressing that it was an outcome of intensive consultations between it and the Russian Federation with complete coordination between the two countries.

RT

Syria welcomes the agreement on Idlib province between Russia and Turkey, the Foreign Ministry in Damascus said on Tuesday. The agreement was a result of intensive talks and full coordination between Damascus and Moscow, SANA reported, citing the ministry’s officials. They said the Idlib deal, which has “specific limited dates,” is part of the previous agreements on the de-escalation zones, achieved during the Astana-format talks in 2017. They are based on the commitment of parties to preserve Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and to free Syria from terrorists and any military or foreign illegal presence, the ministry added.

Idlib Agreement: A few more details

Tampa Bay
In the entertainment section?

Entertainment

The Latest: Details released of agreement on Syria's Idlib

Published: September 18, 2018

MOSCOW (AP) — The Latest on the disappearance of a Russian military aircraft over the Mediterranean and other issues related to Syria (all times local):
11:45 a.m.
A pro-government Syrian newspaper says the agreement reached between Russia and Turkey over the northwestern rebel-held Syrian province of Idlib envisions three stages in returning Damascus government institutions to the area.

The daily Al-Watan reported on Tuesday that the agreement struck in Sochi the day before also calls for the establishing of a demilitarized zone along all the front line in Idlib by Oct. 15.

The rebels are to hand over their heavy weapons under the supervision of Russia and Turkey by Nov. 10.

The paper says the third phase will see government institutions return to the rebel-held region after militants withdraw from residential areas.

The agreement between the leaders of Russia and Turkey on Monday is thought to have averted an all-out offensive by government forces to retake the last remaining rebel stronghold in Idlib.

Additional Reading at Fars

No Idlib Offensive- Russia & Turkey Agree Joint Patrols & Demilitarized Zone

 UPDATED HERE WITH INFO I'D SEEN PRIOR TO THIS NEWS BREAKING:

Putin talking to Erdogan ahead of his meeting: 

"Our relations are developing dynamically and positively. It can be said about our trade and economic ties, which are growing rapidly. It can be said about our security cooperation, especially within the region, on the international arena in a broad sense of the word," he said. "There are a lot of problems, some of them being very difficult. I am glad to see you not only to exchange views on the entire range of problems but also to try to find solutions where there are none as of yet."

 Putin clearly stating that on several fronts Turkey and Russian relations were growing dynamically and positively. On some fronts they had problems that they were trying to work out.

This story has since been updated and the statement below is gone now- No matter I'd saved the quote :

 Find it in the comments section here: PennySeptember 17, 2018 at 9:39 AM

“The statement which we will make after the meeting in Sochi will contain new hope for the region,” Erdogan said through an interpreter. He gave no indication of what would be in the statement. 

 Which I found interesting and indicative that a deal had previously been worked out between the Astana partners. Pay attention to that fact that Erdogan is talking about a solution for the region.

Earliest reporting that I've seen so far:

Russia and Turkey will create a buffer zone of 15-20 kilometres wide between rebels and Syrian government forces by 15 of October

Erdogan & Putin in Sochi September 17/18

 Recall my reporting of this possibility in this previous post?

• Russia to Brief UN Security Council on Fate of Idlib: Will Idlib be Divided?

In yesterday's post I'd entertained the idea that there was a deal in place:

• “Syria’s rebel Idlib prepares for a losing battle”: Idlib Deal Ahead of Operation?

"Russia said on Monday that there will be no new military operation against Syria's Idlib by the Syrian government forces and their allies after president Vladimir Putin met with Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The two leaders, who back opposing sides in Syria’s seven-year war, came together in an ad hoc meeting in the Russian resort city of Sochi as tensions over the fate of rebel-held Idlib province ratchet up.
They have signed a memorandum on the stabilisation of Syria's Idlib city to prevent an offensive by the Syrian government forces that would lead to scores of casualties of civilians.
The Syrian government, backed by Russian air power, appeared recently to be poised to stage an assault on the last major opposition bastion, which is also home to thousands of hardline militants.
Putin said that they agreed with Turkey to create a demilitarised zone of 15-20 kilometres wide between rebels and Syrian government forces by 15 of October.

Russian and Turkish forces will patrol the demilitarised zone.

Radical rebel groups, including Al-Nusra Front, will withdraw from the zone, and heavy weapons held by Syrian rebels in Idlib city should be handed over by October 10.

This approach, Putin said, is supported by the Syrian government of Bashar Al-Assad.

إن رغبتنا في تركيا وروسيا هي حل الأزمة السورية وفق قرار مجلس الأمن الدولي رقم 2254. وسنواصل تعاوننا من أجل تحقيق هذا الهدف.

— رجب طيب أردوغان (@rterdogan_ar) September 17, 2018

Translation: Our wish in Turkey and Russia is to solve the Syrian crisis according to the UN Security Council resolution 2254. We will keep our cooperation to achieve this goal.

Turkey's president Erdogan said that his country will carry out coordinated patrols in the demilitarised zone in Idlib with the Russians. 

He said that the biggest threat to Turkey is the Kurdish movement of People's Protection Units (YPG) rather than Idlib. Turkey considers the YPG as a terrorist organisation.

Yielding results

Erdogan and Putin met 10 days ago in Tehran alongside Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, where the Turkish leader publicly called for a ceasefire.

The situation in Idlib has been calm for three days. It looks like we obtained a result with the efforts which were made
- President Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Turkish daily Hurriyet on Monday quoted Erdogan as saying he believed his words in the Iranian capital had had a positive effect.
"The situation in Idlib has been calm for three days. It looks like we obtained a result with the efforts which were made," the newspaper quoted the president as telling reporters on a flight back from Azerbaijan at the weekend. "But we are still not satisfied.”

 "Let's all take steps, measures together against the terror groups among the opposition in Idlib," Erdogan said according to Hurriyet. "But let's not create an excuse and take a step like bombing there."

“Syria’s rebel Idlib prepares for a losing battle”: Idlib Deal Ahead of Operation?

⟱ Important Update below

Interesting news article at PBS- Syria's Rebel Idlib Prepares for  A Losing Battle

I’m opting to leave out the spin and that which is rubbish in my opinion and go for as factual an accounting as can be extracted from the 5 eyes media.

“A wide offensive is only likely after a green light from Russia. But delicate diplomatic moves are at work. Moscow is keen on strengthening ties with Turkey, at a time when Ankara’s relations are at their lowest with the United States. Turkey, by calling on the United States and Europe for support, seems to be playing on that interest to pressure Russia to accept its proposals for a solution on Idlib that avoids an attack.”

On Monday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan meets for the second time in 10 days with Russia’s Vladimir Putin, this time in Sochi, Russia.

As reported the other day:

• Erdogan & Putin To Discuss Syria in Sochi- Monday Sept.17/18

“After proving its influence in Syria and the Middle East, Russia wants to pull Turkey away from the West much more than achieve a military victory over the armed Syrian opposition,” Mustafa Ellabbad, an expert on Turkish-Arab relations, wrote in Kuwait’s al-Qabas newspaper.

I think Russia wants a "victory" however that's defined and yes, also good relations with Turkey. - Why not, they share the same 'hood.

The province, the size of Lebanon, has been the beating heart of the rebellion for years. In rebel hands since 2015, it is the largest contiguous territory they controlled.

Russia and Syria moved fighters and others aplenty to Idlib

The Turkish reinforcements are  going to 12 observation points that Ankara set up around Idlib last year under a deal with Russia and Iran creating a “de-escalation zone.”

I’ve mentioned all the outposts, Iranian and Russian, not just the 12 Turkish ones, in two separate posts- PBS claims that reinforcements are going to the observation posts- The outposts have been manned since last year.
The posts were discussed twice last month. Here and here.

Outposts, again.

If Syrian forces retake Idlib with no agreement on the fate of the opposition fighters, they could threaten the Turkey-controlled enclave, and Ankara would lose credibility with the fighters and leverage with Damascus on any future deal.

“There is really no way for the Syrian military and Damascus’ allies to launch a military offensive on Idlib that doesn’t have deeply negative, injurious effects on Turkey. There is no real way they can cushion this for Turkey,” said Sam Heller, a Syria expert in the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.

Is there no way that Russia and Syria can cushion this operation for Turkey? I think it's possible by undertaking a more controlled, measured operation in Idlib -  And have mentioned repeatedly the advantages to all parties in doing this. Save for the US and their proxies.

Turkey’s strategy in the opposition areas has been complicated by the presence of radical fighters. By backing the National Front, it argued it can draw fighters away from the al-Qaida-linked HTS, the dominant power in the province, forcing it to dissolve and creating a new opposition force ready to negotiate with the Syrian government.

The strategy has had limited success.

The National Front in recent months gained control of territory in Idlib from HTS, which still controls nearly 70 percent of the province. HTS began to show signs of splits and two weeks ago, Turkey declared it a terrorist group.

As reported here at the blog- probably two weeks ago or nearly so.

September 04/18: Turkey Green Lights Syria/Russian Idlib Op - Hayat Tarir Al Sham Designated A Terror Group

"But with the onset of a military offensive, HTS has set up joint operation rooms with different National Front factions.

The HTS spokesman in Idlib said now was not the time to talk about dissolving into Turkish-backed rebel groups. He underlined that an arrangement must eventually be made for the foreign fighters in the group"

Recall my mentioning that HTS was no friend to Turkey?- Hence the lack of cooperation.
Hence the inability for Turkey to get them to dissolve into the Turkish backed rebels- Since HTS is beholden to different masters (US/UK/Israel) Turkey was destined to fail in resolving this problem.

"Syrian forces and Iranian-backed militias are likely to avoid a clash with the Turkish troops"

 No advantage to fighting with them. And as my hubby just stated it's possible this was always the end game.  As in Turkey, Russia, Iran and Syria had an Idlib plan all ready to go.

That's why I love that guy :)

“Assad and Russia gave the choice to the international community: First we kill everybody. Second thing, (they said) if you want to protect (Idlib) then take those people you think are nice … It is cynical but puts the international community before its contradictions,” said Balanche.

Repeating:

Second thing, (they said) if you want to protect (Idlib) then take those people you think are nice … It is cynical but puts the international community before its contradictions,” said Balanche.

I like the idea of putting the international community before (in front of) it’s contradictions.
It’s very just. It’s in fact an ideal concept- Oh, you don’t want these “nice” people. ??
Oh, dear, the nice people as is claimed are not so nice. Perfect.

The international community gets it's just deserts

I've been talking this topic up at Nomadic Everyman 
Including the fact that no humanitarian corridors had been set up prior to the alleged start of Idlib operation that was supposed to have occurred over a week ago- Russia didn't blink. Turkey didn't impede it. No one did. The operation wasn't ready to go. 

PennySeptember 16, 2018 at 10:17 AM

Additionally:

Consider the fact that humanitarian corridors had not been established tells us there was no operation ready to go.
Considering humanitarian corridors precede the military operations- as a rule in Syria.

take care Scott!

Ziad at Syper has also reported today- September 16/2018

THE GREAT EXODUS:  Uighers, Uzbekis, Chechens, Daghestaanis and a few Albanians are heading north with their families to the Turk border to avoid what they know to be the inevitable push to exterminate them.  They are moving their families out of harm’s way.  The actual number is not known, but, the Turks are allowing them in as long as they leave the country permanently.
Another wave of emigration is also taking place, except, this one is heading south to the areas controlled by the SAA.  These are the actual citizens of Idlib who want nothing to do with the terrorists who are planning their own Masada in Idlib.  Some are successfully using the Russian humanitarian corridors to escape despite repeated threats of retaliation from the terrorist grubs.

Humanitarian corridors may now be in place as Lavrov said they would be:

September 14th post: Russia and Turkey working out humanitarian corridors

Russian foreign minister says talks are underway between Turkish and Russian officials on Syria’s Idlib

A humanitarian corridor will be created in Syria’s Idlib to prevent civilian casualties, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Friday.

🙋Russia, Iran, Turkey and Syria might just have played this very smart
We'll know more tomorrow - Let's hope the US doesn't get any dangerous ideas?

 ⟹UPDATE Begins

Turkey and Russia agreed on the fate of Idlib..

Columnist Nedret Ersanel wrote to pro-government Yeni Şafak daily.

"The political pressure of the West couldn't spoil the Astana peace talks," Ersenal noted, "that's why all the discussion are held within the framework of the alliance." 
According to Ersanal, Russian airstrikes in Idlib do not serve a disagreement between Russia and Turkey; instead, airstrikes represent Russia's support for Turkey and "reminders of the tight schedule" to solve Idlib problem.

 Right after the diplomatic contacts between Germany-France-Turkey-Russia delegation on Friday, the Kremlin announced that there would be an Erdogan-Putin meeting on Sept. 17, only ten days after Tehran Summit!- is an evidence of proceeding to a different phase about Idlib.

"It seems that the 'design' and 'mechanisms' of what will be done in Idlib is arranged," Ersanel added"

It's looking as if what ever the Astana 3 have planned for this stage of settling up Idlib is arranged. This goes back to hubby's idea of a plan already in place for Idlib, which is why terrorists were moved there. All spin aside.