Arevordi from Heralding the Rise of Russia wrote a brilliant post regarding Armenia and the broader geopolitics of the area, titled: The problem with Armenia is not its government, it's the people - Autumn, 2016
His post covers much ground and is worth reading entirely, however, I'm only going to post one section of it here. Why? Because the excerpt below relates to the destabilization and remake of the middle east and asia which is a core topic here! It addresses, in a very rational and level headed fashion, the relations between Turkey/ Russia/US. Also addressing Armenia/Azerbaijan& Nagorno Karabakh: Nagorno Karabakh or Why I'm ignoring the Panama Papers.
I'll have some commentary of my own, of course.
Arevordi:
"Turkey coup may foster better Russo-Turkish relations
Merely two days before the assault on the Armenian police compound in Yerevan, Turkey was itself embroiled in what also seemed to be a Western sponsored armed rebellion.
Thousands of soldiers led by rebellious military officers attempted to
overthrow their country's strongman. The coup attempt ultimately proved a
failure and Recep Erdoğan has been using it as an excuse to further clamp down on
his opposition and further extend his power throughout the country"
To my understanding many changes have not yet come to fruition, however some have.
"Under
Erdoğan's long rule Turkey had grown more wealthy, more powerful,
more independent and more Islamic. Turkey's rise as an independent
power in particular was a source of concern for Western powers. From a
Western perspective, Turkey had all of a sudden become unpredictable and
belligerent. The world saw the first indication of Ankara's
independence and belligerence back in 2003 when Turkey, an influential
NATO member, refused to allow US forces to use Turkish territory to
invade Iraq. Problems also inevitably began rising between Ankara and
Tel Aviv as Erdoğan's increasingly Islamic oriented government began getting more involved in Palestine's liberation struggle. Turkey's makeover under Erdoğan was
obviously an alarming development for Western powers who had since the
Second World War established very close ties with the country's
military, political and economic elite. This concern may have been one
of the reasons why Western
and Israeli intelligence agencies began backing Kurdish autonomy in
northern Iraq against Ankara's expressed wishes. As such, relations between Western powers and Turkey gradually grew frigid in recent years. Interestingly, as Ankara grew colder towards the West, its relations with Russia grew increasingly warm.
Although Moscow and Ankara had strong disagreements over Syria and
Nagorno Karabakh, Russian-Turkish relations were continuing to register
unprecedented advances. Then, quite unexpectedly, Turkish forces ambushed and shot-down a Russian warplane over Syria last November. Turkey and Russia all of a sudden found themselves on the edge of war"
Turkey's growing wealth and prosperity has been discussed here previously- enviable gdp- hence the financial warfare being waged against it-
Waging Financial Warfare Against Turkey- Downgraded to Junk Status The refusal to allow US forces to station on Turkish territory in 03 has also been broached here
, the Turkish state leadership saw the future and it was not rosy.
"This concern may have been one
of the reasons why Western
and Israeli intelligence agencies began backing Kurdish autonomy in
northern Iraq against Ankara's expressed wishes" As I've stated repeatedly here- the Kurds are a proxy force of NATO/US/Israel- They have functioned as a "stay behind army" for all intents and purposes for decades, keeping Turkey off balance. Backing kurdish autonomy, going so far as creating greater Kurdistan is an intentional attempt to finally, completely weaken Turkey.
The shootdown of the Russian fighter jet, was neither in Turkish nor Russian interests, which is why I contended from the outset the shootdown was undertaken by NATO occupied Turkish forces and curiously Prime Minister Davotoglu- amazingly, took immediate responsibility to solidify the 'blame Turkey' narrative.
"It
is now becoming increasingly apparent that the downing of the Russian
warplane by Turkish warplanes was planned by forces within Turkey that
were opposed to Erdoğan's government. The working theory is that there were interests inside Turkey that wanted Erdoğan
and Putin to go to war against each other. As we saw, Putin did taken
the bait. Moscow took the heavy hit but it did not reply in kind.
Instead, Moscow began implementing a series of punitive measures.
Damaging sanctions against Turkey were introduced and Kurdish
separatists inside Turkey were given more advanced arms and seemed to
have been encouraged to intensify their military operations on Turkish
territory. By early 2016, Turkey was hurting badly as south-eastern
parts of the country had essentially become a war zone and several of
its cities began getting hit by terror bombings. By the spring of 2016, Ankara
was suffering serious military losses against Kurdish separatists inside Turkey and its political agenda inside Syria had been thoroughly defeated. Compounding
these already very serious problems was the drastic drop in tourism in
Turkey and billions of dollars in revenue losses. Ankara was growing
increasingly desperate.
Flashback March 27/2016: Russia Signals Interest in Warming Ties With Turkey- Russians & the Turkish Riviera
The militant that shot down the plane was alleged to have been a 'grey wolf'
: NATO Stay Behind Armies: Gladio and Grey Wolves. Updated .
Davotoglu suddenly resigned.
Undermining Russian/Turkish relations?
Who would benefit from that?
"The
closer Turkey moves towards Russia, the harder will
Anglo-American-Jewish interests pull Turkey from the opposite direction.
Turkey will be torn apart in the process. But I have little hope that
such a thing will happen. Erdoğan's government will not last forever
and whoever comes after it will mostly likely go back to kissing Western
asses."
This pulling in two powerful directions contributes to the why of Turkey's split personality- It should be understood that Turkey is walking the razor's edge. That is how I see it.
It should not have surprised us that Turkey experienced a coup d'état on July 15. In the opinion of many, the attempted
coup by military units in the Turkish armed forces was a desperate
attempt at stopping Erdoğan's rapprochement with Russia. In the
days leading to the military coup, we were seeing the following
kinds of articles. Pay particular attention to the pre-coup July 15
article about Alexander Dugin's trip to Turkey -
Ankara
was clearly signalling a new political direction in the weeks leading
up to the coup. The direction in question was unmistakably oriented
towards Russia. Ankara was even signaling its willingness to negotiate with Bashar Assad, angering Turkish-backed rebel groups in Syria. This must have greatly agitated Uncle Sam, as well as Jews. Therefore, more pressure was to be put on Ankara. This may have been the reason behind series of ISIS attacks against civilian and military targets inside Turkey. This may have also been the reason behind the Bundestag's recognition of the Armenian Genocide and Davutoglu's sudden departure. Through it
all, a
chorus of complaints about Erdoğan's "dictatorial" government could be heard throughout the Western press.
But Erdoğan
remained unfazed and stubbornly pressed ahead with his plans. Which in
my opinion made a Western-backed military coup inevitable. From the West's perspective: If the coup succeeded and Erdoğan was toppled, it would be wonderful. If the coup did not succeed, it
would at least send Erdoğan a stark warning. Time will tell what lasting impact,
if any, the failed coup will have on Erdoğan's government.
What we saw in Turkey recently was nevertheless an
effort to stop Erdoğan's government from drifting the country too far
away from Western interests. Predictably, Turkey is being torn apart to some degree
in the process, and it can get even worst. Erdoğan was crazy enough to think that Turkey, being in the Western orbit, could operate independently and assertively; Erdoğan
was crazy enough to think he could antagonize
Anglo-American-Jews and still try to fix relations with Russia. Serious
cracks are now appearing between Ankara and Western powers. Naturally,
Russia wants
to fill the void. Moscow will try but it will not
ultimately succeed in pulling Turkey out of the Western orbit, at least
not in one piece. I say this because Turkey is too deeply involved with
the Anglo-American-Jewish world to survive a total divorce. Therefore,
if Erdoğan does not give into Western demands, he will risk having his
country torn apart. Which is why I want to see Erdoğan continue his
agenda. which is why I want to see Moscow continue trying to pull Ankara
out of the Western orbit.
Nevertheless a
reminder for Armenians who get hopeful about Western powers abandoning
Turkey: The nation of Turkey continues to be very valuable for
Anglo-American-Jews because Turkey is a strategic buffer against
Russians, Iranians and Arabs. The Western world's problem is not with Turkey but with Erdoğan's government. The Anglo-American-Jewish
alliance simply does not like Erdoğan's increasingly independent and belligerent attitude. Western powers will do what they can to oust Erdoğan but they will NEVER abandon Turkey.
In a sense, military coup was a Western effort to maintain some degree
of control over the country or at the very least weaken Erdoğan's government. It was essentially a show-of-force by the CIA. By having thousands of soldiers inside Turkey take up arms against their
leader Uncle Sam sent a message to Erdoğan. The recent rash of terror
bombings in Turkey had sent a similar message but that apparently was
not enough to scare Erdoğan. Nevertheless,
Armenians better not get too excited or too optimistic. Western powers
will never abandon Turkey. Besides, the Western-backed military and business elite in Turkey
is not a lesser enemy to Armenia.
That said, Turkey can
indeed suffer a lot of damage in the current geopolitical climate. The
on-going tug-of-war over Turkey between Western powers and Russia has
the potential of tearing the country apart. Facing
terror bombings and now a bloody military insurrection, Erdoğan now has a
choice to make: He can either continue trying to take Turkey further
away from Western influence and risk having Turkey be pulled apart in
the process or he can swallow his Anatolian pride and be pragmatic and
accept his subservience to the Anglo-American-Jewish alliance. The
next few months will reveal his choice. How he reacts to recent developments in Turkey will
reveal what direction he wants Turkey to go. However, regardless of what Erdoğan does going forward, Turkey is now a broken
nation. Serious fissures are appearing throughout Turkish society. There
are now serious problems between the country's Kurds, secular/western
leaning Turks, conservative/nationalistic Turks and Islamist Turks. The
nation of Turkey is gravely ill and the rift between Erdoğan's
government and the West is now very deep.
That said, Turkey has become an independent player in the region, a wildcard,
especially now that Erdoğan's government has defeated the coup.
Unlike
Mustafa Kemal Ataturk's game nearly one hundred years ago, when he
fooled the Bolsheviks into thinking he was contemplating an alliance
with them, Ankara's current desire to break out of the Western orbit and
enter into a closer friendship with Russia is very genuine. Those who planned the ambush of the Russian warplane last
November wanted to embroil Erdoğan and Putin into a shooting war thereby derailing Russia's war effort in Syria and ruining Ankara's prospect of fostering better relations with Moscow. Putin
did not take the bait. For his part, Erdoğan
began efforts to fix the
problem by reaching out to Russia using back channels. Disagreements
between Moscow and Ankara over Syria's faith also seem to have been resolved.
Turkey will therefore play a lesser
political role in the conflict. All in all, Turkey may have
finally begun its journey away from Western powers. We can all be rest
assured that it will be a
perilous journey. As I said, the country runs the risk of begin torn
apart because Western powers still control a lot of assets inside the
country and also because the West will react by giving Kurds more
power. Turkey therefore runs the risk of begin torn apart if it
indeed breaks its ties with Western powers. It's beginning to seem like Erdoğan's government is willing to take that chance.
In
the big
picture, this all is a good development for Armenia because Turkey's
problems with Western powers can have one of two outcomes. 1)
Turkey may become a weaker nation with serious internal and external
problems. 2) Turkey and Russia will enter into a close alliance.
Needless
to say, a weaker Turkey is fully in Armenia's interests but such a situation runs the risk
of creating major volatility on Armenia's western border. Good
Russian-Turkish relations can also be in Armenia's interests, as it will
pacify the situation in the south Caucasus, which will in turn boost the
region's economy. Good relations between Moscow and Ankara should
therefore not scare Armenians. Russia may lose Armenia in a major battle but it will never willingly give up or "sell" Armenia to Turks or anyone else for that matter.
Regardless of its agenda vis–à–vis Turkey, Russia will always see Armenia as its single greatest ally in the south Caucasus. Moreover, regardless of its relations with Turkey, Moscow will continue basing troops on
Armenia's borders with Turkey and it will continue recognizing the
Armenian Genocide. Good Russian-Turkish relations simply means good regional
economic
cooperation and less military tension, both of which are fully in Armenia's long-term interests. More importantly, good
Russian-Turkish relations means the expulsion of Western troublemakers
from the region, which is in the benefit of all regional peoples.
Presentation of the Turkish situation as simplistic rather then multi faceted does a great disservice to the reality of the situation. I see too many alt media types engaging in this. It's deceptive.
Anonymous commenter mentions the Turkish/Iranian oil for Gold transactions- Covered briefly in this post:
December 23/2013 Turkey: Halkbank - Role in Iran Gold Transactions Legal
Notice the multiple mentions in that post of Fethullah Gulen?
Bloomberg article link left by same commenter:
Gold Trader at Heart of Turkey Graft Scandal Charged in U.S.
In my opinion the trade between Iran and Turkey was their business, to conduct, and no business of the global tyrant USA.
