I've been reading about Turkey's currency crisis 'round the net.
There seem to be some authors that are confusing correlation with causation.
These op/eds put forth the idea that the fundamentals of Turkey's economy are the reason for the currency crisis.
I disagree and suggest that these persons are confusing correlation and causation.
Explainer:
Post hoc ergo propter hoc (Latin: ‘after this, therefore because of this’ – often shortened to post hoc) is a logical fallacy that states ‘Since Event B followed Event A, Event B must have been caused by Event A
The invalid assumption that correlation implies cause is probably among
the two or three most serious and common errors of human reasoning.- Stephen Jay Gould, American evolutionary biologist and author, 1981
OR as per my headline:
‘The rooster crows immediately before sunrise, therefore the rooster causes the sun to rise’
That is confusing correlation with causation.
But don't tell a rooster that ;)
Intentionally or not? It doesn't matter. This confusion serves to obfuscate much of the reality surrounding Turkey.
While ignoring/downplaying years of systemic attacks against Turkey.
Planting the idea that the latest currency crisis is not just another in a long series of destabilization tactics that have been employed for years now. And is in fact something Turkey's leadership is responsible for. Is a convenient and very pro 5/6 eyes/banker narrative.
The tactics have included but are not limited to financial downgrades- a coup attempt- arming Turkey's internal enemies- A protest (that quickly ran out of steam because it didn't have broad support) and while becoming more enlightened, I realized positively stunk of a western fomented/Gene Sharp action. Yes, I'm recalling the Gezi Park protests.
At that time (2013) I'd thought these protests might be legitimate, but, still entertained the possibility that something else might be afoot.
Quoting from that post:
 |
| Protestors Military Provided Gas Mask |
"Another threat may also be lurking. In Istanbul, people have begun
whispering that the military is distributing gasmasks -- but to the
demonstrators rather than to the police. The message is clear: The
military supports the protests. The story is certainly consistent with the Turkish military's
traditional role in society"
The opinion piece authors that I've read, as of late, suggest that Turkey's debt levels are too high. And that this debt fueled joy ride is the cause of this currency crisis.
If that was really the case, it would seem to me the debt fueled joy ride in Canada, on every level from federal to provincial government, corporate and finally on to the consumer debts levels which are astronomical here should have also resulted in a currency crisis. But, that hasn't happened.
It's very clear there is much more to this recent crisis then meets the eye.
As someone who has written about the take down of Turkey for years now and have noted on several occasions that this slow move towards alienating a NATO ally that has been ignored all the way around- Really ignored all around. Despite so very many signs.
I'd expected that this day would come. And here it is.
So, let's address reality and not some anglo zionist banker friendly narrative.
You know the one that always blames the intended victim for the crime being perpetrated against it? Because that is ALWAYS how these take downs are handled.
In all my years of blogging. Over a decade now- This is the normal narrative.
It was Assad's fault. Ghadafi's fault. Saddam's fault.
It's Putin's fault that this or that is occurring. In the case of Turkey were to believe it's Erdogan's fault. It's never that simple. As we see time and time again the leader of any of the already mentioned states had become or is presently the convenient scapegoat/justification to target and take down the nation they lead.
This is the pushing of the cult of personality- it's a straight up ad hominem tactic-
Cult of personality can be presented as this individual is all good or this individual is all bad
Hitler has a huge cult of personality presence. Mostly all bad.
This method is tirelessly employed to justify waging a desired war. People fall for it time and time again. And it's employed for the very same reason propaganda is used. To distract from reality.
An old comment brought forth because it's as relevant today as it was then
In June of 2013- though not clear, it sure looked as if something was a-fowl in Turkey
In this post I'd pointed out that all was not well between the US and Turkey. Something was off. Pressure was being applied. I cited a congressional PDF as a source and quoted this:
"The overall U.S. policy toward Turkey is largely determined by the United
States’ need and appreciation for Turkey as a strategic partner and NATO ally"
It's very clear that US policy towards Turkey is only based on what serves the needs and interests of the US. It's stated quite bluntly.
At that time additional observations were shared
Which could tell us that the US policy, being determined by the US's
need for Turkey as a strategic partner and ally, can change depending on
whatever 'need' the US determines is strategic at the time it is
setting policy.
My uncertainty disappeared in November/ 2013.
When it became clear to me that, yes, the US was done with Turkey I self published a pile of posts demonstrating that US usefulness for Turkey had run it's course.
It seemed I was alone in seeing this as fact? Apparently the idea that NATO would turn on one of it's own was not easily accepted by many. Or some were obfuscating the reality as part of the 5 eyes msm or alt media.
Below are a mere handful of posts starting in 2013 covering the US betrayal of their decades long ally.
Finally in 2016, Scott from Willy Loman's dropped by with this comment
And the post below was written by yours truly and I knew, finally, I was no longer alone :)
And I continued on writing about the many attacks against Turkey-
Including the post of a few days ago- US Sanctions Turkey Over the arrest of CIA Pastor Brunson
While much of the media, alt and msm, continued with fake news about Turkey annexing Mosul and other such rubbish. All the while ignoring the targeting of Turkey. Many of these same places and spaces are writing about the debt crisis etc. as a reason for the currency crisis- And they all read very much like the article I will be linking below from American Enterprise Institute-
The same think tank that put forth the idea years ago that Turkey was heading for partition..(Is Turkey Heading to Partition? American Enterprise Institute)
Coincidental ? I don't think so. A partitioned Turkey would be part of the remade region.
Forcing Turkey into submission will assist with the partition plan.
Additionally it is think tanks and NGO's that spread many ideas/talking points thru to the masses, via the media, alt and main stream. Which would explain the dissemination of similar views . Maybe people don't think too much about the ideas being spread. Maybe they don't question them? I'm guilty of questioning it all. And thinking.
As my husband tells me..."You think way too much"
Many years ago Turkey paid it's debt off to the IMF. That meant they were a nation not so tightly constrained by global banking cartel or the US. This currency crisis has been created to force Turkey back into debt servitude and bring it to heel under the edicts of the US
You'll notice the AEI headline is one that wants the readers to
believe Mr Erdogan as out of touch with reality. That's not the case.
AEI "Planet Earth to Mr Erdogan"
Create a crisis. An investor confidence crisis that can be used to 'encourage' Turkey to take a bailout from the IMF. The US is the biggest stakeholder in the IMF.
Problem, Reaction, Solution. And if Turkey takes the bailout they will become trapped. No longer will they be able to make independent decisions for their own well being. They will take orders.
"One also has to wonder how long it will take him to realize that his
country has little realistic option but to approach the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) for assistance to restore investor confidence."
Much as it might be odious to Mr. Erdogan, the sad truth of the matter
is that his country desperately needs foreign financing if it is to stay
afloat and to avoid a banking sector meltdown.
Seemingly blind to his country’s desperate need for foreign financing"
Why I thought foreign financing was the problem? Was the reason for all Turkey's woes?
How is more foreign debt going to solve this crisis?
"Experience teaches that once a government loses investor confidence that
confidence becomes very difficult to restore. That is why it would
appear that Mr. Erdogan has little realistic alternative but to turn to
the IMF if Turkey is to stabilize its currency and its financial
markets"
You see it's experience that 'teaches' a government when the investors lose confidence a nation must run to the IMF for a bailout to restore that investor confidence?
You understand that logic right? When 'investors' are targeting your currency and they've lost 'confidence' you must get indebted to the IMF to bail these investors out. To restore their confidence in your currency. Targeting a currency to bring a nation down is nothing new under the sun.
"By providing an outside seal of approval for a credible economic
adjustment program and by requiring concrete and upfront policy
adjustment measures, the IMF can help quickly restore investor
confidence in Turkey in a way that verbal assurances by Mr. Erdogan at
this late stage in the game cannot.
Approaching the IMF will be far from easy for Mr. Erdogan. Not only
will he have to effectively admit how misguided his economic policies
have been to date; he will also first have to mend fences with the
United States, the IMF’s largest shareholder which has an effective veto
on an IMF program for Turkey.
Sadly, Turkey’s economic crisis might very well have to deepen before
Mr. Erdogan comes around to the view that the IMF is Turkey’s last hope
for economic salvation."
Can it get any plainer? The currency crisis was contrived to force Turkey back into line.
To make Turkey submissive, docile and obedient. Deals with Russia? S-400. Pipelines. Nuclear power plants. Partnership with the SCO? Part of the silk road with China? Standing in the way of the middle east remake? Astana Partnership?Turkey is not, has not, been going along with the 5 eyes for years and years now. The currency crisis was created to bring them to heel!
It's not Erdogan's fault. That's absurd. That's a convenient and friendly banker 5/6 eyes nation narrative. But it's not reality. This IS WAR.
There may be another part to this or not. Not certain, but, I will end with the WSJ article
"President Trump’s decision to double steel tariffs on Turkey as its
government battled a currency collapse marked a departure for the U.S.
from how it traditionally handles financial turmoil hitting emerging
markets."
Trump's tariff moves prove, to my mind, that the currency crisis is contrived. And will be exacerbated until Turkey crawls to the IMF, in which case the US will dictate the harshest of terms imaginable.
The other option is for Turkey to stand tall and reach out to other parties.
