The Khashoggi Incident: Forcing Regime Change in Saudi Arabia?

A regime change operation of a different kind.

I'm really starting to accept this as a possibility- for a number of reasons that I'd hoped to touch on, but, don't have time to right now. The paragraph below should suffice
 
Relevant information from the Atlantic Council- The Khashoggi Affair: Back to the Future

Regardless of how the mystery ends, the Khashoggi affair is likely to have profound repercussions in Saudi-Western relations and perhaps inside Saudi Arabia itself. King Salman and family elders may realize that the Kingdom’s emergence from years of conservative and cautious foreign policies into a more aggressive stance inside and outside their borders may have gone too far. The logical conclusion to that line of thought would be another realignment of their top leadership.

Failing that, the pressure, particularly from the US Congress, is not likely to let up. 

Sure sounds like regime change! Realign your top leadership or the US is going to increase the pressure

Has Saudi Arabia acquiesced?

Saudi’s To Report Death of Khashoggi as “interrogation gone wrong” Maybe.

Saudi’s To Report Death of Khashoggi as “interrogation gone wrong” Maybe.

But that could change! Or not. This is breaking news?
Based on yet more unnamed sources.
Global News

CNN is the initiator of this reporting so take with a grain of salt.

Khashoggi

 
CNN is reporting two anonymous sources telling of the report, although one of the sources said that the report is still being prepared and cautioned that things could change.

2/ One source: report will likely conclude that the operation was carried out without clearance and transparency and that those involved will be held responsible.

One source: report is still being prepared and cautioned that things could change.
— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) October 15, 2018

According to the sources, the report will detail that the interrogation of Khashoggi, who went missing October 2 after he entered the Saudi Arabia consulate in Istanbul, Turkey, was meant to lead to Khashoggi’s abduction from Turkey.

Reminiscent of Putin's Khodorkovsky release. "Pastor" Brunson released.

Apparently Brunson and Trump prayed in the Oval Office? 
What a nice touch. Very appealing to the evangelical crowd. I'm not impressed.
Trump did not say "You're FIRED! "to Brunson

Reality TV

In August of this year the subject of Brunson was covered here at the blog- Brunson walked/talked and quacked like a covert operative:

• US Sanctions Turkey Over the arrest of CIA Pastor Brunson

 An agent operating on behalf of another state, working to destabilize another nation state. In this case Turkey. Nothing new under the sun, really. I covered his 'church' in Izmir- a barred window store front- Not very church like at all, but, conveniently located to a big port, making the location ideal for smuggling weapons and distributing the same to US affiliated terrorists. Gulenists and or PKK. Hell, possibly even Grey Wolves? Read or re- read the earlier post relinked above-

Brunson had spent two years incarcerated. He was sentenced to 3 years imprisonment but was released based on the two years of time served.

AA

The Turkish judiciary's decision on Friday to release American pastor Andrew Brunson was an impartial one, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told his U.S. counterpart.

Trump also tweeted: "There was NO DEAL made with Turkey for the release and return of Pastor Andrew Brunson.” 

Brunson was arrested in December 2016 and charged in the Aegean province of Izmir with being a member of the Fetullah Terrorist Organization (FETO), the group behind a defeated coup earlier that year.

After being transferred from jail to house arrest this July, Brunson on Friday was sentenced to just over three years in prison, but released due to time served and his good behavior in custody. 

The charges against him included spying for both FETO and the PKK, a group recognized as terrorist by the U.S. and EU which is responsible for some 40,000 deaths in Turkey, including women and children.

Deal? No deal? My thoughts? No advance deal.

I've been going over all the reasons, in my mind, why Turkey released Brunson at this time?

1- Tied to the missing journalist incident which was surely set to turn the heat up on Turkey.
Did Turkey make a pre-emptive move in advance of what was undoubtedly going to be Turkey portrayed very negatively along side Saudi Arabia? 

2-Perhaps the reasoning might have been that the US would release some of the financial thumb screw tension that's been applied to Turkey these past months? Not likely.

Updated October 14/18: "TURKEY has caved in to US demands for the American pastor at the centre of a row between the two nations that saw the lira crippled - despite President Donald Trump refusing to ease his punishing sanctions against the troubled state"

As suggested the release had nothing to do with getting an easing of the sanctions

3-I do not think that this will affect US support of the PKK thugs in northern Syria- 
That plan is far to advanced for US/Israel to let it go now. They've had years to back off the regional remake and have not done so thus far. Releasing Brunson was not a consideration in this regard, in my opinion.

• Lavrov: Easier for the US to Fish in Troubled Waters- Unifying Kurdish Held Territories

  Believe it, or not, my early morning thinking about this recent move went back to Putin's release of Khodorkovsky. That was a shocker. Including to this blogger! 

But, the way I'm thinking about this .. Brunson was released to get ahead of the fall out from the Khashoggi incident. As mentioned in point 1. In a move reminiscent of Putin's release of Khodorkovsky. Good PR.


Let's flashback to Khordokovsky, his release was covered below:

• Khordokovsky: He is free, but, his money is still imprisoned? Stichting!

Apparently I thought as much of Khordokovsky as I do of Brunson.  LOL. A thief and a leech.
Clearly those were my kindest sentiments!

"Love how NYT’s calls him a ‘tycoon’ Makes me laugh. He is just a well connected opportunistic  thief and leech ( To drain the essence or exhaust the resources of) on the real wealth makers of any society."

Let's go back to another 2013 article covering the release of Oligarch Khodorkovsky

Mikhail Khodorkovsky

"It looked like a scene from a Cold War spy thriller. 24 hours after his release, Oligrach Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who ended a 10-year sentence, appeared in Berlin wearing a heavy duty Russian air-force jacket and smiling broadly. It was, however, the Russian President Vladimir Putin's announcement about Khodorkovsky's early release which caught a lot of people by surprise. A global media spectacle followed. Journalists and commentators scrutinised whether Putin's decision symbolised a political strength or weakness, whether Khodorkovsky admitted his guilt, and whether he is going to become a political opposition figure or remain in exile. Media outlets appeared to be outpacing one another in applying dramatic labels to the momentous event."

Just like Brunson, Mikhail hightailed it out of dodge... so to speak

"Labelled an "off-stage bombshell", Putin's announcement of the impending release of Khodorkovsky was deemed a shocking sensation. The change of heart was attributed to Putin's perceived love of surprises and his arbitrary application of the "carrot-stick" approach

Putin's bold decision has often been mistaken for arbitrariness in the latest analyses.

In contrast, Putin's announcement[Ru] of Khodorkovsky's impending release contained little emotion, only calm and calculated rationale. In stating that "10 years is a serious punishment," the president conveys a sense of "justice being done" and readiness to close that page of history. 

In the case of pardoning Khodorkovsky, the decision was neither sensational nor arbitrary. Rather, it was a combination of socio-political factors: A strategically timed publicity stunt to bolster Russia's positive image internationally in the run-up to the Sochi Olympics, a result of skilful lobbying efforts by the German diplomatic elite and a humane act of mercy driven by Putin's personal convictions about vengeance, justice and mercy."

We know the US has lobbied hard to have Brunson released. Perhaps enough 'justice' had been served by the two years  of imprisonment that Turkey saw more value/benefit in releasing Brunson then keeping him incarcerated. 

Lavrov: Easier for the US to Fish in Troubled Waters- Unifying Kurdish Held Territories

No one who reads here is going to be surprised that Lavrov is stating the US is trying to join annexed Syrian territory with the Kurdish territory in Iraq to make a unified territory.

Like a broken record I've reported on this... repeatedly. While taking a lot of flak for doing so.
One of a very, very few, but brave, voices speaking these facts. Sadly.
As the 5 eyes main stream and alt avoided the blatantly obvious. 
 

From November 2015: Sinjar: Creating a Crucial Supply Route for KurdIShIS & Annexing Iraqi Territory

When the US took Sinjar they were able to make the connection into Syria and start building the infrastructure for that cojoined territory.. That was three years ago!

"Clearly what is going on in Sinjar has zip to do with fighting ISIS. The US is aiding the Kurds in their annexation of Iraqi territory-  Same as in Syria. Same as will be done in Turkey. The US is redrawing the borders of the ME, using ISIS as the pretext, as has been suggested here for a very long time! As the US aids the Kurds in their land thievery and nation destruction they are also ensuring a supply route to continue this redraw. Complete with ethnic cleansing and massive displacement that will see yet more movement towards Europe- As intended!"

 The Map to the left doesn't even begin to cover the territory now held by the PKK/YPG in Syria and Iraq. With US help they annexed even more territory then this early mapmaker had anticipated- The PKK/YPG along with their USrael benefactors now hold 30 percent of Syria's territory.

Lavrov

 Below I've highlighted Lavrov's statements so they cannot be missed!

TASS

United States is up to plunge into a dangerous game in Syria with idea of unified Kurdistan, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview with RT France, Paris Match and Le Figaro.


"Neither the United State nor France nor other Western countries want to create conditions for the return of refugees on the territories that are controlled by Syria’s legitimate government until  a reliable political process is launches," the Russian Foreign Ministry quoted him as saying

Yet the US is willing to annex Syrian territory and join it with Iraqi territory without any reliable political process involving the legitimate government of Syria! Notice the double standards?

In the meantime, the United States is establishing power bodies in alternative to the Syrian legitimate authorities on a vast territory east of the Euphrates and is taking robust efforts to encourage the return of refugees there, Lavrov noted.

"The question is why it is not necessary to wait for the launch of a reliable political process on the Euphrates east bank that is controlled by the United States. There is only one answer to it - it is planned to establish a territory that would be a kind of a prototype of a new state. Or it will be another round of the most dangerous game with Iraqi Kurdistan, the idea of the so-called unified Kurdistan," he said.

"I don’t rule out the United States is seeking to keep the situation in that region that tense so that no one could calm down," the Russian top diplomat said. "It is much easier for them to fish what they want in such troubled waters. It has never done any good," he stressed.

Saudi Delegates Arrive in Ankara: US Spies Make Claims/Western Firms Withdraw

Interesting that western business and 'influential persons' like Obama (influential is not my choice of words) seek to distance themselves from Saudi Arabia. Or so they claim.
In advance of this possibility?

• US to Apply the Magnitsky Act Regarding the Khashoggi Incident?

Again with the hearsay!  
From "one person" and a "second person". No substance. No names.

As Washington Post claims the Turks have told US officials they have audio and video to support claims of murder.  

The Turkish government has told U.S. officials that it has audio and video recordings that prove Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi was killed inside the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul this month, according to U.S. and Turkish officials.

 one person with knowledge of the recording who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity

A second person briefed on the recording said....

Washington Post always being very spooky. 

Persons of influence and wealth back away.. allegedly?

“What has reportedly happened in Turkey around the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, if proved true, would clearly change the ability of any of us in the West to do business with the Saudi government,” Richard Branson, CEO of Virgin, said in a statement suspending several ongoing projects with Saudi entities.

Over the last few days, several large western firms and prominent figures announced they were pulling out of joint ventures and appearances with the Saudi leadership over the disappearance. Among them were The New York Times, Uber, and The Economist, along with Huffington Post founder Arianna Huffington and former US Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz, former energy secretary under President Barack Obama, is suspending his involvement advising Saudi Arabia on a $500 billion smart city project.

The loss of any 'smart city' is no loss at all- Those cities are abominations. Affronts to all that live.  The best way to think about smart is pain. Oh that smarts!
Torontonians may want to rethink that development along the lakeshore?

Saudi delegation arrives

A delegation from Saudi Arabia arrived in Turkey’s capital, Ankara, on Friday for the investigation into the disappearance of Jamal Khashoggi.

On Thursday, Turkish Presidential Spokesman Ibrahim Kalın said Turkey had accepted a Saudi proposal to form a joint working group to investigate the case of Khashoggi.

• Joint Turkish/Saudi Team To Investigate Khashoggi Disappearance

Background:

• Missing "journalist" Jamal Khashoggi? Or Arms Trader Like Namesake Adnan Khashoggi?
• Fake News regarding alleged Khashoggi Death Squad Retracted 
• Khashoggi's "Disappearance": A New Twist In Bitter Gulf Divisions

 

US to Apply the Magnitsky Act Regarding the Khashoggi Incident?

 In case you're not up to speed?

• Missing "journalist" Jamal Khashoggi? Or Arms Trader Like Namesake Adnan Khashoggi?
• Fake News regarding alleged Khashoggi Death Squad Retracted 
• Khashoggi's "Disappearance": A New Twist In Bitter Gulf Divisions
• Joint Turkish/Saudi Team To Investigate Khashoggi Disappearance

 AlJaz-Senators trigger act requiring Trump to determine if foreign person committed rights violations against the Saudi writer

 This move sets some alarm bells off...........Five alarm fire style

"After the disappearance of prominent Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, US Senators triggered the terms of the Global Magnitsky Act, which requires the president to investigate and determine if a foreign person is responsible for a extrajudicial killing, torture or other gross violation of internationally recognised human rights.

In a letter, signed by a bipartisan group of 22 Senators on Wednesday, Bob Corker, the Republican chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, demanded President Donald Trump probe any violations committed against Khashoggi.

Here's a look at the Magnitsky Act and how it applies to Khashoggi's case:"

What is the Magnitsky Act?

"The Magnitsky Accountability Act was signed into law by then-President Barack Obama in December 2012, in response to human rights abuses against Russian lawyer and auditor Sergei Magnitsky"

Magnitsky was NOT a lawyer- He was an accountant. In 2011 three bloggers got together and wrote a big expose on the Magnitsky Browder saga years ago- I was one of those three.
The report is still available on line.

Tuesday, 16 August 2011: Magnitsky Report

Bill Browder was most recently playing the eternal victim role in Spain.

• Bill Browder (Magnitsky Act) "arrested" in Spain. PR Stunt/Demonize Russia

Is the Khashoggi disappearance a turning point for US-Saudi ties?

"Russian authorities arrested Magnitsky in 2008 after working with investor William Browder, who had hired him to uncover massive tax fraud totalling $230m linked to people connected to the Kremlin. Magnitsky was beaten in custody and died in 2009, days before his supposed release.

At the time of its passage, the Magnitsky Act targeted 18 Russian individuals, barring them from US entry and US bank dealings.

In 2016, it was expanded to give the executive branch power to impose targeted sanctions or visa bans on individuals who have committed human rights violations anywhere in the world.

With the threat of significant sanctions looming, the law is also meant to deter human rights violators from partaking in future violations, according to Mai El-Sadany, the legal and judicial director at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy in Washington.

"The Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act is an unprecedented human rights tool ... [it] enables the president of the United States to apply targeted sanctions against individuals involved in human rights violations," El-Sadany told Al Jzeera."

The Magnistsky Act has nothing to do with human rights- It's the financial version of R2P.
R2P is a farcical excuse to attack other nations under the guise of protecting it's inhabitants

Louise Arbour"She now sees the R2P doctrine, in particular, as a failure: Its imposition by the UN in Libya, and the resulting chaos, severely crippled the notion of a legal intervention, she believes"

How is it triggered and what does it require the White House do?

"Upon receipt of a letter from a chairman and ranking member of one an appropriate House or Senate committees, the president has 120 days to determine if a foreign individual committed a human rights violation. A classified or unclassified report is then submitted to the committee explaining whether or not sanctions will be imposed, and if so, what sanctions. 

Violations would include "extrajudicial killings, torture, or other gross violations of internationally recognized human rights violations against individuals who seek to obtain, exercise, defend, or promote human rights and freedoms, including freedom of expression", according to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee."

How does it apply in Khashoggi's case? What happens next?

"On Wednesday, ranking members and chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, sent a letter to President Trump triggering the Magnitsky Act and an investigation into whether rights violations occured relating to Khashoggi's disappearance.

Upon receipt of the letter, the White House has 120 days to report back to the committee with a decision and determine whether it will impose sanctions on the foreign individual(s) involved in the "gross violation of internationally recognized human rights against an individual exercising freedom of expression".
Human rights violations would also include "torture or cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment or punishment, prolonged detention without charges and trial, causing the disappearance of persons by the abduction and clandestine detention of those persons, and other flagrant denial of the right to life, liberty, or the security of person," the Committee wrote in its letter on Wednesday. 

"Therefore, we request that you make a determination on the imposition of sanctions pursuant to the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act with respect to any foreign person responsible for such a violation related to Mr. Khashoggi," Senators said. "Our expectation is that in making your determination you will consider any relevant information, including with respect to the highest ranking officials in the Government of Saudi Arabia."

The letter was sent by Senators Bob Menendez (D-NJ) and Bob Corker (R-TN), ranking member and chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Patrick Leahy (D-VT) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC), ranking member and chairman of the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs.
The letter was also signed by Senators Marco Rubio (R-FL), Ben Cardin (D-MD), John Barrasso (R-WY), Chris Murphy (D-CT), Jeff Flake (R-AZ), Tim Kaine (D-VA), Cory Gardner (R-CO., Ed Markey (D-MA), Johnny Isakson (R-GA), Jeff Merkley (D-OR), Todd Young (R-IN), Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), Rob Portman (R-OH), Cory Booker (D-NJ), Ron Johnson (R-WI.), Chris Coons (D-Del.), Jim Risch (R-Idaho), and Tom Udall (D-NM)."

What will it mean for US-Saudi relations?

"The enactment of the Magnitsky Act has been seen as a major blow for US-Saudi relations by many in Washington.

Although Trump told reporters on Thursday that he saw no reason to block Saudi Arabian investments in the US, an impending investigation into Khashoggi's disappearance could potentially lead to economic and political sanctions on individuals in the oil-rich Gulf state.
James Zogby, founder and president of the Arab American Institute in Washington, DC, said Khashoggi's case has led to "a tremendous shift in public opinion", toward Saudi Arabia, "not only among [Americans] but also in the Senate".

Whether or not the president implements sanctions, he said, Khashoggi's case would continue to haunt Saudi Arabia.

"Not putting sanctions on individuals will only poison the well [for] future arms sales and future exemptions to sanctions," he said. "Clearly in the Senate, where Congress can act without the president, there will be repercussions.

"This is something that has been building. This has got to be a concern for [Saudi Arabia]; having a good relationship with President Trump does not translate to getting a free pass from the Senate."

Isn't it interesting that the US has also threatened to use the Magnitsky Act to wreak financial havoc on Turkey

• Zarrab Trial & Magnitsky 2.0 Readied for Turkey

And isn't it also interesting that a couple of years ago I wrote a big piece as a response to Scott previously from Willy Loman but now at nomadic everyman titled:

• March 04/2016: Yes, Willy Loman, It’s about Blamin’ & Framin’ Turkey & Saudi Arabia

And it has been for a good long while now.
teeny bit of a big post with lots of outward links

Yours truly: "Sy Hersh like Joe Biden, planting the seeds in your mind for the next two planned destabilizations- Since Turkey’s destabilization was well under way at the time I wrote “Who controls the Past, Controls the Future” I put more focus on Sy's obvious framing and blaming of Saudi Arabia, while still pointing out the lies concerning Turkey"

Aaaah. Memories. 

Joint Turkish/Saudi Team To Investigate Khashoggi Disappearance

This is interesting. I like the idea of them cooperating on an investigation rather then this continuing battle of he said/she said.
 One thought that crossed my mind- Are Turkey and Saudi Arabia choosing to work together to spite those that want them at each others throats? Are they putting the rug back on the floor and firmly standing on it?- Rather then having it pulled out from under them? 

I'm using that idiom in this manner :To pull the rug out from under someone is to upset their stability or to cause their plans to fail.

As stated in an earlier post:  Missing "journalist" Jamal Khashoggi? Or Arms Trader Like Namesake Adnan Khashoggi?

"- Or if someone kidnapped him while on Turkish territory, though in the Saudi consulate, it might lead one to suspect that acrimony is being further fuelled between the Turks and the Saudis?  (Harkening back to the assassination of the Russian Ambassador on Turkish soil. That incident appeared to be an attempt to place a wedge between Turkey and Russia"

The latest:  Joint Turkish-Saudi team to investigate Khashoggi disappearance: Kalın

Ibrahim Kalın

A joint Turkish-Saudi team will investigate the disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi upon the kingdom's request, Presidential Aide Ibrahim Kalın said late Thursday.

Kalın told Anadolu Agency: "Within the framework of a close cooperation between Turkey and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and upon the suggestion of the Kingdom, a joint working team between Turkey and Saudi Arabia will be formed to investigate the case of Jamal in all its aspects."

Khashoggi, journalist and columnist for The Washington Post, has been missing since he entered the consulate in Istanbul on Oct. 2. Turkish authorities suspect he was killed. Saudi Arabia denies any involvement in his disappearance.

Thinking about the regional remake- ongoing- and recalling that Saudi Arabia is balkanized in the map that was released 2006? I'll check the date and link back to a recent post where that map was shown- For now, busy day, and I got to go!

Relink to recent post containing 2006 map showing a 'redrawn' Middle East
*Did the Idlib Deal Result in Retribution Delivered by Israel and France?
Related to this topic:

• Khashoggi's "Disappearance": A New Twist In Bitter Gulf Divisions

• Fake News regarding alleged Khashoggi Death Squad Retracted