Sunday, March 28, 2010

Imagining an Israeli strike on Iran

Would Israel take the risk of a strike? And if so, what would follow?

The Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution created its own war game simulations in December.

For the sake of verisimilitude, former top American policymakers and intelligence officials — some well known — were added to the mix. They played the president and his top advisers; the Israeli prime minister and cabinet; and Iranian leaders. They were granted anonymity to be able to play their roles freely, without fear of blowback. (This reporter, David E Sanger, was invited as an observer.) A report by Kenneth M. Pollack, who directed the daylong simulation, can be found at the Saban Center’s Web site.


1. ISRAEL ATTACKS

Without telling the U.S. in advance, Israel strikes at six of Iran's most critical nuclear facilities, using a refueling base hastily set up in the Saudi Arabian desert without Saudi knowledge. (It is unclear to the Iranians if the Saudis were active participants or not.)

Already-tense relations between the White House and Israel worsen rapidly, but the lack of advance notice allows Washington to say truthfully that it had not condoned the attack.(interesting given the recent theatre)


2. U.S. STEPS IN

In a series of angry exchanges, the U.S. demands that Israel cease its attacks, though some in Washington view the moment as an opportunity to further weaken the Iranian government, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Telling Israel it has made a mess, Washington essentially instructs the country to sit in a corner while the United States tries to clean things up.

3. U.S. SENDS WEAPONS

Even while calling for restraint on all sides, the U.S. deploys more Patriot antimissile batteries and Aegis cruisers around the region, as a warning to Iran not to retaliate. Even so, some White House advisers warn against being sucked into the conflict, believing that Israel's real strategy is to lure America into finishing the job with additional attacks on the damaged Iranian facilities. ( correct observation)


4. IRAN STRIKES BACK

Despite warnings, Iran fires missiles at Israel, including its nuclear weapons complex at Dimona, but damage and casualties are minimal. Meanwhile, two of Iran's proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas, launch attacks in Israel and fire rockets into the country.

Believing it already has achieved its main goal of setting back the nuclear program by years, Israel barely responds. (allowing the country to play victim, as usual)


5. IRAN SEES OPPORTUNITIES

Iran, while wounded, sees long-term opportunities to unify its people - and to roll over its opposition parties - on nationalistic grounds. Its strategy is to mount low-level attacks on Israel while portraying the United States as a paper tiger - unable to control its ally and unwilling to respond to Iran. (etc., there is more to this section at the link above)


6. IRAN AVOIDS U.S. TARGETS

After a meeting of its divided leadership, Iran decides against directly attacking any American targets - to avoid an all-out American response.


7. STRIFE IN ISRAEL

Though Iran's retaliation against Israel causes only modest damage, critics in the Israeli media say the country's leaders, by failing to respond to every attack, have weakened the credibility of the nation's deterrence. Hezbollah fires up to 100 rockets a day into northern Israel, with some aimed at Haifa and Tel Aviv.

The Israeli economy comes to a virtual halt, and Israeli officials, urging American intervention, complain that one-third of the country's population is living in shelters. Hundreds of thousands flee Haifa and Tel Aviv.(Intervention they wanted all along)


8. ISRAEL FIRES BACK

Israel finally wins American acquiescence to retaliate against Hezbollah

9. IRAN PLAYS THE OIL CARD

Knowing that its ultimate weapon is its ability to send oil prices sky high, Iran decides to attack Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, an oil industry center, with conventional missiles and begins mining the Strait of Hormuz.

10. U.S. BOOSTS FORCES

Unable to sit on the sidelines while oil supplies and American forces are threatened, Washington begins a massive military reinforcement of the Gulf region.

11. REVERBERATIONS

The game ends eight days after the initial Israeli strike. But it is clear the United States was leaning toward destroying all Iranian air, ground and sea targets in and around the Strait of Hormuz, and that Iran's forces were about to suffer a significant defeat. Debate breaks out over how much of Iran's nuclear program was truly crippled, and whether the country had secret backup facilities that could be running in just a year or two.

read entire article at link above.

Only in western media, can an attack on a sovereign nation be 'imagined' without condemnation.

Also related: Despite political theatre, sorry let me correct that, or rather let's continue the lying: Despite 'row' US & Israel sign massive arms deal

The Pentagon and Israel's defense establishment were in the process of sealing a large arms deal.
According to the deal, Israel will purchase three new Hercules C-130J airplanes. The deal for the three aircrafts, designed by Lockheed Martin, is worth roughly a quarter billion dollars. Each aircraft costs $70 million.


Also a deal on the Lockheed F-35 war plane, not settled yet, but expected to be. That deal worth 3 billion dollars.

15 comments:

  1. hi pen,

    here are some older scenarios, much less manageable too:

    scott ritter:

    http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/20080714_iran_shows_its_cards/

    lord stirling:

    http://europebusines.blogspot.com/2008/07/war-on-iran-perfect-storm-from-hell.html

    we don't know what might really happen. the fact is that they're opening pandora's box if they do this. nutjobs like netanyahu should not be allowed to make decisions that affect the entire world.

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  2. Soon enough we shall see what we shall see. The US has been building this up for too long for it not to go ahead as planed and that plan is now as it has been from the time of the overthrow of the Shaw to take back Iran.

    The US is simply using the Jews as pawns, willing pawns perhaps but pawns nonetheless. Personalty I do so hope that many of them die in the attempt.

    Other than by subversion the Persians have never been defeated and if the Americans think that they are having a rough time in
    Afghanistan just wait until they try to move into Iran. The land itself will defeat them, they may well destroy the political rulers as was done in Iraq but they will never destroy the will of the Persian people nor will they be able to destroy the mountains and that is where Persia's real
    strength lies.

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  3. also, the palestinians are effectively hostages protecting israel from being attacked. if israel ever did get it's way and deported the palestinians, that would certainly make israel much more vulnerable. why would anyone hold back after that? as lobaczewski wrote, the germ does not understand that it will die from the fever it brings on the host... something to that effect.

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  4. I wonder if they can get the military to go along with this. Nine years of warfare has a cost.

    I wonder if this would be the final wake up call for the west and ignite a civil war. I think the PTB want a civil war and are just getting their machines into place for it. A war like this maybe just what they need to ignite us into rebellion.

    If we could forget about war and not talk about it, it would been viewed as ridiculous after a while and no one would do it.

    I wonder what would happen if we created a movement to forget about all the wars of past. Not buy poppies, not watch shows on the History channel or go to see war movies etc.

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  5. hey ap!

    I am going to check those out, ty!

    Agreed on the pandoras box.
    This will not be good.

    silverfish:
    soon enough we shall see what we shall see.
    I was talkin' with maggie a couple of days back, the time for the hit would be before the Bushehr reactor is running, alleged to be this summer

    http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?ID=171383

    Bushehr reactor to start this Summer

    If this is the case the hit would have to come this spring.
    Hitting a functioning nuclear power plant, would be...problematic.

    I noticed the lack of a Russian role in the scenario.

    And then I had Georgia on my mind, recall when Georgia attacked the breakaway province, killing Russian peacekeepers stationed there.
    Russia rolled down, with quite the show of force, and Georgia was hung out to dry.

    I always wondered if that was to done to test the russian response?
    And if it was, why would russian not have a role in the war scenario presented?
    Russia surely has scientists etc., in Iran, they will surely be targetted, will Russia stand aside?

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  6. what about Turkey?
    Now there is a wild card!
    Look at the sour relations between Israel and Turkey?

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  7. "I wonder what would happen if we created a movement to forget about all the wars of past. Not buy poppies, not watch shows on the History channel or go to see war movies etc."

    This is a great idea, and one I already participate in.
    I do not buy poppies, nor do I wear them, I do not tie yellow ribbons, or put magnets on my car saying "support the troops"
    As for war movies and the 'history' channel.
    Can't be bothered, really, most of it is propaganda anyway.

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  8. Ha the irony of poppies and what the numb fucks in uniform are dieing for in Afghanistan. It is truly to chuckle. Perhaps what they should be handing out on Nov.11 are syringes loaded with heroin that we could pin on our lapels. Talk about truth in advertising.

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  9. truer words could not have been spoken?

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  10. oops

    silv:
    truer words could not have been spoken!!

    (question mark? what was I thinking)

    did you see that news story where they were saying the Canadian soldiers don't destroy the opium crops because they don't want to upset anyone?
    LOL!

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/21/world/asia/21marja.html

    here is an older one regarding canadian troops

    http://www.cp24.com/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20070512/afghanistan_poppies_070512?hub=CalgaryHome

    Canada stays out of Afghan opium poppy harvest

    and why would they eradicate it, drug money funds the war, black ops and keeps the banks afloat, it is win/win for NATO

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  11. Ordinarily, these 'war games' and 'scenarios' are used to 'reverse engineer', as AP calls it, the desired outcome for these loonies.

    But this 'scenario' aint gunna happen; not this time anyway. And I can't imagine even the trained seals at Brookings seriously thinking for a moment it will. So what's afoot?

    Methinks this is being used to influence the (rightly) 'nervous nellies' that the outcome of allowing israel to start this shit storm will be rather benign for the US and so get them 'onboard' to start this thing. Once started there will be no going back. The outcome won't be benign for the US, of course.

    For a start, Iran will retaliate massively and instantly, too. It must know it is its only chance a survival. All the US bases and facilities in the Mid East will be under attack from missiles; any US Navy ships in the gulf or near the Straits of Hormuz will be sunk. Iran has the armaments to do this and there is nothing the US can do about it.

    The problem for israel will be the pandemonium that will come from being attacked by Iranian Missiles shortly followed by Syrian ones (manned by Russian technicians btw) and then Hamas (and maybe even Fatah) soldiers coming over the walls with plain old AK47s taking full advantage of the civil mayhem.

    And then there's Russia. Iran is its bulwark. If it goes then Russia knows it's next and I can't see Putin waiting quietly for Russia's turn to come. He has shown he will act decisively. The US/israel/Britain combo is out for complete world domination. This is clear to everyone and an attack on Iran will signal to everyone we are all into WW3.

    I don't think the US plans to invade and occupy Iran; just bomb it 'back to the Stone Age', as it were, (and Iran knows this full well) and maybe try and secure the oil fields next to southern Iraq or otherwise destroy them.

    But whatever they plan will be undone by their own hubris not that that will be any consolation for the millions killed and injured.

    The loonies have tried and failed to start this a few times now. Let's pray they fail again this time. And lets pray also that someone with some courage convinces enough people to start dismantling this threat to us all and lock up the psychopaths behind it.

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  12. I think everyone is forgetting one very, very important thing: we are not talking about countries and presidents actually thinking independently . . .

    . . . we are talking about a vast and well entrenched conspiracy of the real powers that be - to (in all probability) entrench or begin a one-world gov't structure out of the ashes of any powers that oppose such an action.

    Really people . . . everything else - all the posturing, the yapping, the strategies, etc - it's all red herrings, a sea of red herrings.

    Don't think for a second that supposed "enemies" like the Russian PTB, aren't right alongside American and Israeli interests (the PTB, of course).

    We have to prepare ourselves for eventualities - the worst ones - in the best way possible.

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  13. Hello Slozo: I got wondering the other day, where you were and was all ok? I don't know why, I get all mother henish sometimes.. silly me.

    'we are talking about a vast and well entrenched conspiracy of the real powers that be - to (in all probability) entrench or begin a one-world gov't structure out of the ashes of any powers that oppose such an action"

    I agree that in the end, that is the agenda, and while they may be powerful people pulling the strings in all nations. I do think, not everyone is in on it, in every country. And there are a great many wildcards, still.

    By this I mean, for example Iran is not part of this agenda entirely. Ditto for Turkey.
    There maybe people within the governments, but, not the country itself. Because really, why would the western powers try to overthrow the leadership?
    I also believe Israel is a wild card in all this. They have their own aspirations.

    So, while yes I agree the goal is global government and we should be aware of that. I think, they are still countries and people with their own agendas.

    That said, happy to see you! :)

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  14. I disagree to some extent, Pen . . . I think Israel has many of the PTB pulling the strings. Anyone else is totally under a short leash.

    Iran may also have many key players compromised, under the puppet strings, and even with CIA operatives in powerful positions. Can you guarantee that Ahmejinidad has not been comromised and isn't under any control from the CIA? Please note old examples like Arafat when considering this question . . .

    While there are lots of people and their agendas . . . please, please, never forget that they have been ALLOWED to be put into their positions of power by the REAL ptb! They are all under puppet strings - a simple glance at all the history, much of which you yourself have covered, is a strong indicator of that.

    As to me . . . I try to keep up, but have a full time job, young daughter, and busy life. I am off again, but keep writing, please!

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  15. Arafat, was useful, for a while, but then even he ended up dead..
    Poisoned by Israel.
    I think with arafat, and this is just my opinion. He unified the Palestinians in a way that maybe the ptb's had not expected.

    But, I do understand what you are saying

    I will keep writing as long as you stop in when you can. deal?

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