Wednesday, January 19, 2011

What is going on behind the smokescreen provided by Baby Doc's return to Haiti

I am hoping the readers are not getting Haiti burn out?
There is more to this then meets the eye.
I have been thinking about the why now of Baby Doc's return. Clearly it has to do with the elections. But, what about the elections? The disputed election results? Who is disputing them and why?
I have come across some interesting info. So bear with me, while I plow through it and hopefully when I am done, it will make sense.

We're looking at the election from three angles.
1.-Rene Preval wants his man in the run off.
2.-The OAS (Organization of the American States) do not want Preval's man in the run-off
3.- The Haitians want an entirely new election

I had a commenter a couple of days back who felt the return of Baby Doc was a ploy by Preval.

I am not so sure of that, and here is why.

What's driving 'Baby Doc' Duvalier's return from exile?

Another theory links Mr. Duvalier’s return to the political fortunes of Michel Martelly, a presidential candidate who has laid claim to a place on the runoff ballot and whose entourage includes some Duvalier supporters. Mr. Duvalier’s decision to check into the Hotel Karibe, where Mr. Martelly’s camp based themselves during the Nov. 28 election, was perhaps not a coincidence.

“There is a connection between Martelly and Duvalier. There’s no doubt about that,” Prof. Fatton confirmed.

Prof. Fatton also raised the scenario that the international community, led by France and the United States, colluded to bring about Mr. Duvalier’s return. “How in the heck did the French allow him to take the plane from Paris?” Prof. Fatton wondered.

The theory of the international community, led by France and the US (including Canada), conspiring to bring in Baby Doc, makes way more sense then the Preval theory. Preval simply does not have enough international pull to get Baby Doc out of France. More powerful hands were pulling the strings behind the scenes to do that.

Let's continue-

Mr. Préval is said to be “enraged” by overtures from the French and American embassies urging the President to respect the findings of a report by the Organization of American States, leaks of which call for his chosen successor, Jude Célestin, to withdraw from a second ballot, leaving Mr. Martelly and former first lady Mirlande Manigat to contest the presidency.

Respect the findings of the Organization of American States? Are they legitimate findings?

It does not seems so! Not even close to legitimate.
There is another, very interesting report from CEPR. Center for Economic and Policy Research
You can find that here

WASHINGTON - January 17 - An analysis from the Center for Economic and Policy Research finds that the conclusions of a high-profile report [PDF] on Haiti's presidential elections from the Organization of American States' (OAS) "Expert" Mission - which recommends changing the result of the first round of the election -- are methodologically and statistically flawed, and arbitrary.

"It is highly unusual and perhaps unprecedented for any electoral authority to change the results of an election without a full recount," said Mark Weisbrot, CEPR Co-Director of and co-author of the analysis. "I can't recall ever seeing something like this.

"But for a foreign mission to do so with such flawed methodology, and for foreign governments to then bring pressure on Haiti to accept the changed result - that really makes a complete travesty of the democratic process," Weisbrot added.

Please read more at the link.

We can quite easily assume that the so called "findings" of the OAS are very much in keeping with the opportunity to have the already pre-ordained western candidates Mr. Martelly and/or Mirlande Manigat win the run off election.

If either of them win. The US, France (not an OAS member) and Canada win! But not the Haitians.
Remember the Haitians want a whole new election.

So we have Baby Doc holed up in the Hotel Karibe, where Mr Martelly's election campaign was based? Is based?

Then there is, Mirlande Manigat, she is a former first lady. Her husband (Leslie) "won" an interesting election. January 17,1988 Leslie Manigat "won" the election with 50.29 percent of the vote, BUT, voter turn out was well UNDER 10%.

A resounding win? Not.

Now to the most recent election!
Video interview with Haiti Libre, editor and journalist Kim Ives , about former dictator Jean-Claude "Baby Doc" Duvalier’s return to Haiti. Ives argues Duvalier’s presence will allow the United States and France to install their preferred candidate in a run-off election set for February against the wishes of President René Préval.
The international community has threatened Préval with exile if he does not comply with their interpretation of the disputed results of last November’s election. "Préval, after bowing to U.S. and French and Canadian dictates over the past decade of his presidencies, is now finding out that once he begins to resist a little bit or try to do something his way, that he’s going to be quickly dispensed with," Ives says.

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