Saturday, October 17, 2015

Electrical Engineer's Study to Change AGW "Debate" ?

 Don't know how much real debate has revolved around the AGW hoax? AGW is a meme has spread pretty far and wide unquestioningly. Those who have dared to question are  greeted with the usual logically fallacious arguments.

Considering what has passed for 'debate' it's unsurprising to me to witness the AGW adherents out and about on line, using the usual tactics to demonize and marginalize Mr Evans..Including Al Gore's PR mouthpiece at DeSmog Blog.  Note the logical fallacies employed through out work- They don't dispute his credentials, but, instead choose to engage in ridicule and attacks against the person. Sad stuff, really.

I did the homework myself regarding DeSmog blog- From Al Gore's Investment Management to DeSmogBlog And when de smog cleared  I spotted a biased site with a vested interest
Considering Jim Hoggan is a PR man one should expect him to be employed for exactly that purpose? Right?


Why post this article now?

'Cause it's already freezing here!  October 17/2015 and we awoke up to a balmy temperature of - 1C or 30 F.  Clear signs of a hard frost this morning- The second frost of the month You might say so what you live in Canada? But then that is exactly the point. I livein Canada and have my whole life. And it’s colder. With frosts coming earlier in the fall and snow staying later in the spring. The trend is cooler.
Yesterday an elderly gentlemen walked past our home and said to my husband ‘It’s too cold for this time of year” My husband agreed. While we were out and about, rain mixed with ice pellets fell on us. Today it’s wet flurries and below normal temps.  It feels more like mid November then mid October. In fact October 2015 has so far been colder then usual and the heat is already on in our house- This may be the earliest date for furnace turn on yet!

So much for AGW or man caused global warming! There is nothing of the sort going on in these parts or anywhere globally for that matter.  It’s been colder overall for years now. I have mixed feelings about the winter soon to come. Particularly since the last two have been so very brutal.

Considering reality and not the big lie makes this article more timely:

Perth electrical engineer’s discovery will change climate change debate

A MATHEMATICAL discovery by Perth-based electrical engineer Dr David Evans may change everything about the climate debate, on the eve of the UN climate change conference in Paris next month.
A former climate modeller for the Government’s Australian Greenhouse Office, with six degrees in applied mathematics, Dr Evans has unpacked the architecture of the basic climate model which underpins all climate science.
He has found that, while the underlying physics of the model is correct, it had been applied incorrectly.

He has fixed two errors and the new corrected model finds the climate’s sensitivity to carbon dioxide (CO2) is much lower than was thought.
It turns out the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has over-estimated future global warming by as much as 10 times, he says.
“Yes, CO2 has an effect, but it’s about a fifth or tenth of what the IPCC says it is. CO2 is not driving the climate; it caused less than 20 per cent of the global warming in the last few decades”.
Dr Evans says his discovery “ought to change the world”.
“But the political obstacles are massive,” he said.
The political obstacles? Why I thought this was all about science ;) Or so we were told?
His discovery explains why none of the climate models used by the IPCC reflect the evidence of recorded temperatures. The models have failed to predict the pause in global warming which has been going on for 18 years and counting.
“The model architecture was wrong,” he says. “Carbon dioxide causes only minor warming. The climate is largely driven by factors outside our control.”
The continuing  pause has already proven the error in the claims of the carbon cult. Using their own claims, there would have never been a pause in warming
There is another problem with the original climate model, which has been around since 1896.
While climate scientists have been predicting since the 1990s that changes in temperature would follow changes in carbon dioxide, the records over the past half million years show that not to be the case.

So, the new improved climate model shows CO2 is not the culprit in recent global warming. But what is?
Dr Evans has a theory: solar activity. What he calls “albedo modulation”, the waxing and waning of reflected radiation from the Sun, is the likely cause of global warming.

He predicts global temperatures, which have plateaued, will begin to cool significantly, beginning between 2017 and 2021. The cooling will be about 0.3C in the 2020s. Some scientists have even forecast a mini ice age in the 2030s.
If Dr Evans is correct, then he has proven the theory on carbon dioxide wrong and blown a hole in climate alarmism. He will have explained why the doomsday predictions of climate scientists aren’t reflected in the actual temperatures.
It took me years to figure this out, but finally there is a potential resolution between the insistence of the climate scientists that CO2 is a big problem, and the empirical evidence that it doesn’t have nearly as much effect as they say.”
Dr Evans is an expert in Fourier analysis and digital signal processing, with a PhD, and two Masters degrees from Stanford University in electrical engineering, a Bachelor of Engineering (for which he won the University medal), Bachelor of Science, and Masters in Applied Maths from the University of Sydney.

He has been summarising his results in a series of blog posts on his wife Jo Nova’s blog for climate sceptics.

He is about half way through his series, with blog post 8, “Applying the Stefan-Boltzmann Law to Earth”, published on Friday.

When it is completed his work will be published as two scientific papers. Both papers are undergoing peer review.

“It’s a new paradigm,” he says. “It has several new ideas for people to get used to.”
Can his paper get past the politics, scientism & religion employed in the AGW spin?

 Here’s hoping the readers in Britain don’t  actually experience the level of cold being forecast for them

“[Freezing temperatures will be] due to below-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and a virtually non-existent Gulf Stream”
James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather

And here I thought the oceans were warming?
At least that's what the carbon cult adherents said repeatedly. As if repeating a lie makes it any less a lie? That proclamation without substantiation has already been shown to be wrong.

Study Finds Earth’s Ocean Abyss Has NOT Warmed- Not Warmed! 

 Or as Lovelock himself acknowledged in 2012?

“The problem is we don’t know what the climate is doing. We thought we knew 20 years ago. That led to some alarmist books – mine included – because it looked clear-cut, but it hasn’t happened,” Lovelock said.
“The climate is doing its usual tricks. There’s nothing much really happening yet. We were supposed to be halfway toward a frying world now,” he said.
 Not frying. Because AGW as presented, has been political, profiteering and controlling.

15 comments:

  1. Yes, I realize calling AGW believers carbon cult adherents is name calling or labelling and yes that does make me somewhat hypocritical, but, if it walks like a religious cult and it's believers act like cult followers what else can I describe them as?

    When these believers cannot face the fact that the carbon theory as claimed did not result in run away warming, or any warming for that matter as displayed by real world evidence how else can one describe the continuing irrationality of the believers?

    I'm at a loss, so if anyone else would like to make a suggestion, how to describe persons who continue to believe in spite of reality I will happily change my wording

    ReplyDelete
  2. Mean Mister MustardOctober 17, 2015 at 8:36 AM

    Courtesy of the UK 'Supreme' Court -

    Climate Change & Rule of Law: Lecture by Philippe Sands QC chaired by Lord Carnwath, UKSC, 17.09.15
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eef1tK8mtEI

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hey MMM:
      got your comment out of the spam file?
      I think google has it out for ya ;)
      I will take a gander at that video but am already wondering what how does 'climate change' and the rule of law even relate to one another?
      should be interesting!

      Delete
  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  4. I call them nut jobs, quacks, idiots, scam artists, foils, morons, buffoons, dirt bags, etc... there should be no beating around the bush with them, period.

    You are on the right track with this, Penny, but you need to understand that the biggest fraud is when they call CO2 a "greenhouse" gas when it is absolutely not!!

    ReplyDelete
  5. I am toying with describing them as anti-living. Since without carbon we wouldn't exist.
    Carbon cycle
    Carbon based life forms and shine on all you 'crazy carbon diamonds'
    Because the carbon as pollutant and greenhouse gas is inherently anti-life
    As in against life. All Life.

    ReplyDelete
  6. http://www.nasa.gov/sun

    The Pacific ocean is warming and hopefully we in Calli will get the rain we need. The ocean is the correct temp at 300ft. This is a wait and see for me and that's interesting about de-smog

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I hope you do get the rain there in California, jo.
      It's certainly needed.
      I had read that the el nino should bring moisture to California this winter
      here's hoping!

      It was snowing today !
      It didn't stay, but, there it was falling down from the sky.
      And tonight is supposed to be 27 fahrenheit or minus 3C!!!

      Yah desmog is glorified public relations outfit and nothing more

      Delete
  7. Hard frost this morning - the killing kind.

    Penny as you know I come at this whole charade from a different point of view - a geologic one. When I see the droughts I recall what we knew of the previous interglacial and glacial melts - the massive lake Agassiz (now Lake Winnipeg), the rainforests of the southwest US where now we have deserts. If we look to the past we can understand the present and predict the future. During every interglacial the center of our continent has dried out, these are long term cycles that play over and over, since the onset of our ice house world almost 3 million years ago.

    To consider that solar radiance and orbital forcings are never included in these models speaks volumes. Considering that we do not have computers which can even come close to mimicking the topography of our landmasses and the effect of ocean atmosphere interactions, leaves their accuracy in question to say the least.

    We hit our climate maxima almost 6,000 years ago, we are on our 'stepwise' ascent to another glacial event. No amount of CO2 is going to change that whatsoever.

    Buffy... Brrrrrrr

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hey buffy
      Yup, hard frost- the killing kind here too.
      If we were mid november I'd be more accepting but we did a late row of pole beans which usually produce until the killing frost- they are done- surely the frost will have killed off the flowers- no flowers- n o beans :(

      Delete
    2. sorry, I should have said and yes I am aware you come at the charade from a different view point-

      " Considering that we do not have computers which can even come close to mimicking the topography of our landmasses and the effect of ocean atmosphere interactions, leaves their accuracy in question to say the least"

      And topography is very important to climate! Most people don't understand that- And I don't fully.
      From my reading weather is related to the latitudes also?
      I have this older text book on geography/science and it has the most excellent section on climate (believe it's college or uni text book?)
      I was going to donate it, but, then started reading it and it was like aha
      aha
      aha
      even describing concisely how the sun heats the planet, warming our soil etc which is how we are warmed for the most part
      plus a whole bunch of other stuff including the information on latitudes

      Delete
    3. Oh yes the topography is very important! The closing of the Isthmus of Panama set off the glaciations - it closed the circumequatorial flow of the oceans which drastically cooled the planet, as now a circumpolar flow is evident at both poles. The rise of the Himalayas drastically effected the 'climate' of the mid east - as does every other geologic event create its own outcome. It is VERY difficult to account for all of these variables in the models as they are - yes even now. We still need to hold some variables 'steady' and there is always the ever present 'error'.

      I hate pollution as much as you - this whole thing is such a horrible and time consuming distraction. Keep your old texts - they are like gold as science becomes more about 'feels' than actual empirical proofs ;)

      Buffy

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  8. Replies
    1. hey james- made me laugh
      science has become one giant religion/appeal to authority

      regarding agw- you always hear "There is a consensus"
      So what?
      Consensus isn't science- It just means a whole bunch of people got paid a whole lot of money to agree to certain ideas- and that's not science.

      Had the AGW theory been correct we would have witnessed the proof, globally- All of us. But we haven't. Instead it's cooling and I've lived in these parts long enough to notice that trend for myself

      The very idea that the climate 'never changes' is absurd
      It changes! The animals change and move
      The plants change and move.

      Just a few examples- we didn't used to have chipmunks around this area-
      but for the past 20 years they have moved in and expanded their population to the point where we see dozens of them in a daily walk
      we didn't used to have red squirrels- now we do
      we didn't have beavers in our local river- now we do
      I used to have black squirrels in my yard and neighbourhood- now I don't

      Plants appear in my yard that I didn't plant here
      I now have a mulberry tree I didn't plant, but don't have the heart to cut down
      I have peppermint, I didn't plant it, but there it is

      Just in my little neck of the woods, through the powers of observation, I can see for myself that change is always taking place.

      Delete
    2. 'Consensus' is a mind job just like 'Democracy' is. 'Consensus' says truth is established by popular vote just as 'Democracy' says wisdom is established by popular vote. Nonsense, as plain as day, once stated correctly.

      Delete

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