Tuesday, August 9, 2016

Greater Jordan? It's Not As Farfetched As You May Think. Israel Benefits.

Newer  readers here may not recall these older posts?  I'll necessarily digress......
Flashback!  November 23/2011: Jordan offers Hamas a "new home" Palestinians expelled to Jordan?
This is presented as being beneficial to the Palestinian cause. Is it really?
Isn't it in fact more beneficial that Palestinians get their own nation, and their lands back and their right of return. In fact the very concept of Palestinians in Jordan is one that is often promoted by Israel and that nations supporters.
This is linked to the destabilization of Syria
"The thinking in Jordan is that when Assad's regime falls, (as if it is a foregone conclusion?) Hamas will need a new home - this is likely to be an excellent chance for Jordan to return to the center of Palestinian politics, from which it has been excluded for a decade"
Flashback! June 23/2014:  Jordan: Threatened by Western pressure applied via ISIS- Chafe at US/Israeli peace plan
 "Western officials say, for the right price, currently estimated in the tens of billions of dollars, the Jordanians will help John Kerry, America’s secretary of state to fix a settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by absorbing the 4.5m Palestinians who live in the kingdom, including the 3.5m who are now Jordanian citizens. Or will they? Indigenous Bedouin from Jordan’s East Bank, who number about 3m, worry that America’s plans to persuade Palestinian leaders to strip generations of refugees of their claimed “right of return” to what is now Israel would reduce Jordan’s original inhabitants to a permanent minority."

Kerry and Abdullah (for sale to highest bidder)
 In 2014, yes more then two years ago, I concluded that post as follows:

Occupied Palestine would be free of it's indigenous people. And, full of people who had no claim to a land that somehow they had a right of return to?  Jordan would be forced to take in all Palestinians that remain alive after what would undoubtedly be a bloody war to force Palestinians to flee once and for all. It wouldn't be difficult to convince a Jordan full of Palestinian citizens with Jordanian citizenship that taking in their long suffering bretheren would be a good thing to do.
If the US can ‘convince’ Jordan  to absorb all the Palestinians already resident in Jordan, the US & Israel can relocate (forcibly, no doubt) the remaining Palestinians, in occupied Palestine, into Jordan. Israel wins.
The US wins. Jordan and the Palestinians lose. The King could line his pockets and relocate if necessary

Therefore, it only makes sense that the Jordanians could be subjected to a destabilization campaign. Lots of terror and blood will certainly help them accept the US/Israeli framework.  

Let's bring this up to 2016! 
Five years after Jordan offered Hamas a new home. Two years after reports of Kerry making an offer Abdullah could not refuse..

Taking into consideration: Jordan's borders with Iraq and Syria declared "military zones"
Training of destabilizers in Jordan. Jordan's military bombing Syria.
UN using a crane to lift tons of supplies into Syria.& Secret US bases, in Syria, just across Jordan's border with Syria 

From Washington Institute: 

The evil doers never stop planning evil.
In both Arab and Western political circles, discussions of "redrawing the map" of the Middle East have begun to crop up, prompted by the collapse of Syria and Iraq’s shaky stability. Many officials have begun to suspect that it is no longer possible to maintain the unity of either country, and that the current realities necessitate new proposals to either create regional balance or find a way out of the stalemate.
Order out of chaos? Problem, Reaction, Solution.
One proposal that is hesitantly reemerging is the suggestion of “Greater Jordan,” a Jordan-West Bank “confederation” that incorporates elements of Iraq and Syria. Once shunned as a failed vision of the Sykes-Picot treaty, increased Jordanian involvement of some sort has become increasingly appealing to regional actors in the face of continuing instability in the Levant, the ongoing Palestinian divide, and the growing possibility of the Palestinian Authority’s collapse.
 Jordan's official stance is that it harbors no intentions whatsoever to expand geographically into neighboring countries. Moreover, any such expansion would saddle the country with a series of complex technical problems involved to politically, socially, and economically integrate the disparate areas under Hashemite leadership. Nevertheless, greater integration, if not outright assimilation, has enough rationales to make the potential worth discussing, especially given the lack of viable alternatives.

Support for the Greater Jordan scenario builds on the general regional feeling that the nation-state model has failed and that the disintegration of national identity in Iraq and Syria will drag the entire region into prolonged chaos.
 In contrast, there is a prevailing impression that some Arab countries -- especially those in the Gulf -- the United States, and Israel (win win for Israel) would welcome an expanding Jordanian role in the region. The Israeli government views Jordanian efforts in the West Bank as a crucial avenue to ensure Israel's sustained security. Moreover, the Greater Jordan scheme would present a more appropriate substitute to the "alternative homeland" plan that certain circles in Israel embrace, which charges Jordan with accepting all resettlement responsibilities for the Palestinian Diaspora within its borders.
 
 Israel's alternative homeland for the Palestinians is touched on in the 2011 repost.
On the American side, the next U.S. administration may look for a reconfiguration of the Middle East as a way out of the country's current regional entanglement. Nor would this scenario likely be protested by Russia, since greater Jordanian involvement aligns with Russia's security obligations to Israel but doesn't conflict with Russia's strategic interests.

 Many Arab countries see a strong Jordanian presence in the Levant as a way to help contain Iranian encroachment. Some measure of stability in Anbar and Daraa would prevent Iranian headway in both areas. Arab countries fear the status quo, where regions of southern Syria and western Iraq seem likely to become incubators of a variety of regional security threats that will eventually seep into Jordan proper and ultimately into the Arabian Peninsula.

It is no wonder that Jordan is an attractive model; its administrative success and government staying power have allowed the country to succeed in spite of major challenges to its stability. Moreover, the country’s broad definition of identity, governmental pragmatism and moderation, the country’s shifting geography, and a Hashemite heritage that links the royal family to "Greater Syria" and Iraq all make Jordanian governance an exemplar for the Levant's failing countries.

Jordan is also in a strong position to gain the cooperation of southern Syria and western Iraq, both of which share similar tribal makeup with the areas of Jordan that they border. In southern Syria, Jordanian administration has so far done an impressive job ensuring that all sides have remained respectful of Jordan's redlines. Jordan has also isolated and blockaded radical forces more successfully than Turkey’s and Qatar’s attempts in the north.

 On the other hand, Jordan's stability is not guaranteed, and a number of regional analysts have warned of the difficulty of preserving Jordan's stability within its current borders. The country's current access to natural resources is ultimately unsustainable, and demands new, unorthodox approaches to Jordan's economy and infrastructure.

Jordanians are also anxious about their country's security; the country’s borders with Syria and Iraq are putting Jordan's own stability at risk. There are doubts over the ability of the Jordanian economy to shoulder the increasing burdens of Jordan's hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees. In spite of the decline in international support for Jordan, the country continues to keep its borders open for refugees, which has raised questions from both inside and outside of the country. By expanding its security coordination in Syria, Jordan has tried within its limited capabilities to provide safe options for Syrians in their own country by coordinating with local forces, a better solution than the current security checks that have left thousands of refugees stranded in the Syrian desert.

These are all important points to consider. But balanced against these justifications, a Greater Jordan scenario or even greater integration also involves many risks and dangers and will be rejected by influential regional powers such as Iran and Turkey. This scenario also embodies the risk of a direct confrontation with political regimes in Iraq and Syria. Practically speaking, this kind of proposal requires a level of risk incommensurate with the pragmatism of Jordanian foreign policy and conflicts with the king's desire to block Jordan's involvement in neighboring countries' issues. Moreover, any overextension of the Jordanian government would help expose the current fragility of Jordan’s domestic situation, with its society reeling from a stifling economic crisis. More generally, any changes in the regional dynamics provide another opening for various interest groups to manipulate the scenario for its own interests.

Consequently, in contrast to regional analysts the Jordanian political elite and the government itself have demonstrated little interest in expansion. They fear any geographic extension exposes the country to existential threats by allowing chaos to spill over into Jordan's currently well-maintained borders. Moreover, regional powers would have the perfect opening to criticize the Hashemite kingdom if they so chose.

Many Jordanian elites also voice concerns about identity and fears that Jordan would melt into a nebulous demographic mixture with any greater integration of surrounding populations. Although the people of southern Syria and western Iraq are socially and culturally tied to their Jordanian counterparts, a large portion remain connected to the respective economic systems of Syria and Iraq. Moreover, it is impossible to predict the on-the-ground reaction of these groups to greater Jordanian involvement, despite the currently friendly ties.

It is clear that the renewed regional interest in a Greater Jordan scenario is driven by the utter lack of alternatives in the intractable regional conflict. With the exception of some Kurdish brigades declaring a federalized system in Northern Syria, no local groups in either Syria or Iraq have made any public statements announcing new political entities, even with the collective realization that a continuation of the current situation is untenable. Without a regional power stepping up, southern Syria, Northern Iraq, and less likely Palestine could devolve into perpetually lawless lands, a reality most threatening to the surrounded Jordan.
Some Kurdish brigades making a declaration while the US assists them in killing and displacing the populace. As repeatedly stated the dream of  Kurdistan is not a Kurdish dream, despite the lies of our always lying media. Kurdistan is Israel's dream. Greater Jordan is Israel's dream. 

If you missed this post? Less then 24 hours old and worth reading!

As Fighting Escalates in Aleppo Who Stands to Gain or Lose? NATO forces with YPG...


13 comments:

  1. over slept this morning, will read later

    Russia building it's own coalition in Syria
    Serbia and China enter the fray ?

    http://tass.ru/en/politics/893228

    long interview w/ Erdogon at Tass in English this morning

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    1. ty rouge karin

      i'm opposite: bleary eyed and foggy
      over tired for third day now...

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    2. IFX: Head of Turkish intelligence organization, chief of staff of Russian armed forces participating in Putin-Erdogan talks

      Fidan and those rumors of Russian support. Given all the bad press he is in the meetings.

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    3. A couple of interesting views
      One is a fellow who writes for Hurriyet on

      Story of secret diplomacy that ended Russia-Turkey jet crisis
      http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/story-of-secret-diplomacy-that-ended-russia-turkey-jet-crisis.aspx?pageID=449&nID=102629&NewsCatID=409

      and at Katheon
      The boundaries of a compromise: Russia, Turkey and Northern Syria
      http://katehon.com/article/boundaries-compromise-russia-turkey-and-northern-syria

      both are not 'breaking news' and more policy oriented.

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    4. oh, and Penny, take a break and get some rest !
      We need you bright eyed and bushy tailed
      or something :)

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    5. Days agoa story of montenegro opening weapons supply to Saudi which followed a story about Serbs pushing weapons to Saudi early August. Turkey vvery active in balkans. And the inciting of tension between Serbia and Croatia is apparent as are the transparent moves in macedonia following the montenegro nato bid.

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    6. Equally fascinating story about Russia and Iran doing gas swap azeri and lng plant in south. Very interesting implications for Iran southern gas via Caspian, kurd ambitions as turk stream Burgas, and south stream are back in discussion. Bulgaria just saw frontier forces deployed. Vol ahead.

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  2. Penny:

    Your post today about Jordan being planned as a refugee centre for Palestinians reminded me about the early days after the fall of Iraq. Sergio Vieira de Mello was sent by the UN to discuss refugee issues in Iraq and set up a UN office there. Unfortunately, he was disappointed in the way the occupation was going. Read the details in this New Yorker piece
    http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2008/01/07/the-envoy

    Not many months after his arrival in Baghdad, Vieira de Mello was killed in a huge bomb blast that took out a side of the hotel where the UN office was located. What the media tried to keep hidden about the event was that....at the very moment of the bomb blast, Vieira de Mello was meeting with a New York lawyer, Arthur C. Helton, who was a specialist in resettling refugees. I read somewhere at the time that Helton was in Baghdad to discuss a project of mass, forced resettlement of Palestinians to Iraq...now that it was conquered by the Americans. Perhaps the authors of the bombing also knew this. I have always found it highly interesting how this meeting between Vieira de Mello and Helton was hushed up...even in the New Yorker article...he is merely called a "researcher".

    In summary, the plan for decades now has always been to find a place in one of the Middle Eastern countries to "solve" the Palestinian problem. Sometimes I think that's one of the major reasons the Atlanticists/Ziofascists have been going and trashing one country after another...looking for a place for the Palestinians.

    gc

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  3. https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article/isis-executes-members-kitchen-gas-inhalation/

    Signs of desparation among Daesh groups.

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  4. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  5. Al Mansar news and Sana posted videos of punishing airstrikes carried out in Aleppo today. The daesh terrorists lost tens and possibly hundreds of their forces. I personnally believe the implementation of a no fly zone is a pipe dream. We'll see soon. It's also been reported that Russian Spaetznaz forces are working with the SAA.

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  6. Al Mansar news and Sana posted videos of punishing airstrikes carried out in Aleppo today. The daesh terrorists lost tens and possibly hundreds of their forces. I personnally believe the implementation of a no fly zone is a pipe dream. We'll see soon. It's also been reported that Russian Spaetznaz forces are working with the SAA.

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  7. Just put a new post up- Reuters is breaking the news that SAA has advanced in Aleppo and shut down the terror route
    Check it out!

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