Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Turkey In Syria, FSA & The Upcoming Quarrel Over Syria's New (UN Mandated) Constitution

Really excellent analysis from Andrew Korbyko via Katehon
hattip Ally for leaving the link :)

I've underlined for emphasis
Much ado has been made over the past few days about the ulterior motives behind Turkey’s conventional military campaign in northern Syria, with most people refusing to believe that Erdogan ‘altruistically’ ordered the operation just to ‘take one for the team’ and help his multipolar allies clear out the Kurdish “federalists”. Turkey does indeed have a self-interested national security reason in doing so, but knowing the wily Sultan, he’s bound to have a trick or two up his sleeve, and it’s very likely that he’s aiming for grander goals than just preventing the emergence of a PKK safe haven all along his southern borderland (which is in and of itself an ambitious objective). The fact of the matter is that Turkey’s true long-term intention for its conventional military involvement in Syria isn’t to take the country’s territory like many alarmists seem to think is the plan, but to change its constitution, which in many ways could be just as bad or even worse for the country.
It's amazing to me, personally, to observe how few persons are mentioning the creation of Kurdistan/Israel 2.0 as a problematic issue for any of the nations involved. Syria, Turkey or Iran. (Omitting Iraq for now)  Why is this issue being hidden/covered up by so many? Why is the obvious remake of the region for Israel's benefit not on many so called serious analysts radar?  Thankfully, Andrew Korbyko addresses this plan. So Willy Loman, and I, are not completely alone! Pepe Escobar has also discussed the creation of Kurdistan as an Israeli interest.  Please share if you know of other's seriously discussing this topic, rather then obfuscating it behind manipulative rhetoric?

 Syria, Russia, and Iran are definitely aware of this, and they might have even held out the possibility – but certainly not the promise – of Turkey influencing the forthcoming rewritten Syrian Constitution in order to convince Erdogan to step into northern Syria to take out the Kurds and replace the pro-Saudi Daesh and pro-American SDF with Ankara’s FSA, all the while risking that he’ll be drawn into a quagmire as he takes out his new partners’ mutual enemies. Despite the risks inherent in this gamble and all that could possibly go wrong with this plot, the Resistance Bloc appears to have agreed that the potential benefits far outweigh the dangers, and that it’s preferable for Turkey to act as their ‘cat’s paw’ against Washington and Riyadh’s proxies because Moscow and Tehran – for whatever their reasons may be – lack the political will to commit to an all-out sustained military operation to do this themselves. 
In other words it's highly likely, as I suspect, everyone is playing for their own benefit and hedging to their advantage- This is not a surprise. It's not even shocking. Neither Syria, Turkey or Iran want a Kurdistan..
 The danger is that an FSA-occupied northern Syria would put Turkey in a far better position to indirectly contribute to the UNSC-mandated revision of the Syrian Constitution than a hodgepodge coalition of internationally recognized “moderate” rebel groups backed by itself, the US, and Saudi Arabia, but the flipside opportunity in all of this is that it could remove both of those latter states from the military-diplomatic equation and that there’s no guaranteed certainty that Ankara will even get what it’s politically seeking.
 All that’s on the table is the chance to do so, during which time the diplomatic masters in Damascus, Moscow, and Tehran could see to it that Ankara’s sway is neutralized and that no tangible harm is done. Turkey isn’t being played as a “useful idiot” since it and all of its partners benefit from the expulsion of pro-Saudi Daesh and the pro-US YPG from northern Syria and possibly even from the rest of the country, it’s just that Erdogan wouldn’t ultimately succeed in his last-ditch effort to unseat President Assad in the last way that he knows how.

skipping past several paragraphs that you should read..

The Reason For The Outreach Strategy
The reason behind their decision in this regard is that neither Russia nor Iran has the political will to launch an all-out conventional war against the FSA, and Syria – fighting a liberation war on all fronts, needing to secure recently freed territory, having to safeguard critical supply lines, and steadily replenishing battlefield losses with newly trained personnel – is in no position to do this by itself without sustained assistance from its allies. Since this is not forthcoming for a variety of reasons, they must settle for the next most pragmatic option available, which is selectively using the FSA whenever it meets Damascus, Moscow, and Tehran’s collective interests. That means accepting the group’s existence and passively enabling it – if not outright actively helping it – to fight against Daesh, al-Nusra, and other “consensually agreed-upon” terrorist groups recognized by the UN and the Geneva talks participants. This is an explanation, not an excuse or endorsement, of what’s happening, and it’s crucial for readers to understand what is being conveyed here. The author isn’t arguing in defense of these actions, but is impartially expressing the reality as it is today and explaining why this came to be.
 That's right the FSA is a recognized consensually agreed up partner at the Geneva talks. That means the US and Russia both recognize them...

 Having acquired a factual understanding of the complicated relationship that the Resistance Bloc has with the FSA and the reasons behind this controversial arrangement, it’s easier for one to understand why Syria, Russia, and Iran aren’t overreacting to the installment of Turkey’s FSA proxies as a replacement for Daesh and the YPG in northern Syria. One should remember that these two latter groups are seen as a much bigger threat to Syria and its territorial integrity than the FSA, since both want to change its borders in one way or another (Daesh wants an international caliphate, while the YPG wants a “federalized” [internally partitioned] Syria) and neither are participants in Geneva. This contrasts with the FSA, which has pledged to support the country’s present borders and is actively involved in Geneva.
 The Kurds and ISIS actually want to alter the territorial integrity of Syria.... What a coincidence......... right? ISIS created a "caliphate" and the Kurds fight ISIS to create Kurdistan- on land stolen by ISIS....... convenient

skipping past several more paragraphs...

Accepting Turkey’s Military Operation 
Apart from Damascus’ about the violation of its sovereignty and Moscow’s about expressing “deep concern” (the author couldn’t find any official statement from Tehran on the matter as of 20:00 MSK on 25 August, though that doesn’t mean one doesn’t exist), none of the three has done anything concrete to resist the Turkish military forces, with Syria refraining from asking its Russian and Iranian allies for help in repelling Erdogan’s Army and its FSA proxies. It also didn’t help any that immediately started circulating that the Saudis were offering financial assistance to the Kurds in exchange for the continuance of their fight against the SAA, which comes on the heels of Iran’s just last month that the Saudi consulate in Erbil was providing support to the Kurdish terrorists fighting against Tehran. If it wasn’t in the collective interests of Syria, Russia, and Iran to see the Turks wipe the YPG out from the northern border belt that they’ve been fiendishly building with American-“Israeli”-Saudi support over the past couple of years, then they all would have united in vocally condemning Ankara for what would then have amounted to a pro-US invasion of Syria and began preparing emergency contingency plans for militarily evicting the occupiers.
 The same equipment that deterred a Turkish invasion for the past nine months since the downing of Russia’s anti-terrorist jet over Syria is still inside of the Arab Republic, proving that Moscow could very easily have put an immediate halt to Turkey’s territorial transgressions had they not been coordinated with Syria, Russia, and Iran in advance (no matter what each partner publicly says in order to ‘save-face’ among their domestic constituents). Iran could have announced that it was cancelling Erdogan’s to Tehran if it was really serious about voicing dissatisfaction with Turkey’s moves, just as President Putin could have said that he’d be delaying his to Antalya. Neither of Syria’s external protectors issued any statements whatsoever that could be interpreted as red lines and ultimatums, which further confirms that they don’t see Turkey’s latest moves as a threat, but instead as a prearranged opportunity that decisively works to Syria’s ultimate advantage.

passed by another two paragraphs....

The Fundamental Importance Of The FSA
To be clear, the author is not endorsing the FSA’s occupation of Syrian land, but is explaining why Syria, Russia, and Iran are not taking any steps to stop this and in fact appear to be cynically encouraging it in order to more rapidly bring about a resolution to the War on Syria. To elaborate, Daesh and the PYD/YPG are not nor ever realistically will be party to the Geneva talks, while the FSA is. Evaluating the situation in Syria right now, it’s impossible for there to be a lasting solution to the country’s conflict unless all the parties exercising military control over every square inch of the country are included in the future settlement. The Resistance Bloc understands this, and while it would optimally be ideal for the SAA to liberate the entire state, this might not realistically happen (let alone anytime too soon) because of Russia and Iran’s’ lack of political will (for whatever the reasons may be, whether justified or inexcusable) to commence an all-out conventional war against every militarized anti-government force in the country. Cognizant of this constraint and acknowledging that the SAA is in no position to do this on its own without such support amidst the challenging conditions that it currently finds itself in, the next best solution is for the “moderate rebels” officially recognized by Syria, Russia, and Iran to gain control of the territory presently occupied by terrorists like Daesh and other non-Geneva-participating groups such as the PYD/YPG.

again, passing by several paragraphs that should be read..............

Constitutional Quarrels 
The UNSC-mandated rewriting of the Syrian Constitution is Erdogan’s ultimate aim, even though this strategically puts him at competitive odds with his recently reconciled partners, two of which, Russia and Iran, have publicly restored their relations with Turkey, while the last, Syria, has yet to do so and might never publicly will (but nor would Turkey want to on its part as well, both for domestic political reasons). All Great Powers have their disagreements and areas of rivalry, and this is no different when it comes to the Multipolar Community and the Tripartite between Russia, Iran, and Turkey. While working together to the betterment of their collective self-interests in resolving the War on Syria, these three members still cannot publicly agree on what comes next after Daesh is defeated. Moscow and Tehran place no demands on President Assad to step down, while Ankara is still obnoxious with its rhetoric, though it might by this point actually be only just that, words. It’s very likely that Erdogan has accepted that President Assad will continue democratically ruling over Syria for as long as his citizens allow him to and he’s interested in maintaining that position, but it doesn’t mean that the Sultan still doesn’t have hope that he can engineer his rival’s downfall through the forthcoming negotiations on Syria’s constitutional revision. 

The Face-Off:
Like it was earlier written in the research, all of the military-diplomatic engagements that are presently ongoing in Syria and have been proceeding for the past year are based on removing all “non-consensually agreed-upon” negotiating parties from the ground and replacing them with internationally recognized forces – be they the SAA or “moderate rebels” – that could account for the situation across the entirety of the country’s territory and thus bring about a sustainable solution to the War on Syria. After completing this first gargantuan step, the second one is to work out the nature of Syria’s new constitution, and it’s here where, as the saying goes, “the devil’s in the details”. All parties presently active on the ground with the exception of the PYD/YPG and “consensually agreed-upon” terrorist groups such as Daesh (neither of which are party to the Geneva talks) support the inviolability of Syria’s borders and are against the country’s “federalization” (internal partition), but they dramatically differ over the future of President Assad and the Syrian Presidency in general.
omitted paragraphs can be read at link provided..........

Dark Scenarios
The introductory paragraphs of this study specifically drew attention to the fact that Turkey’s conventional military involvement in Syria is indeed a gambit by all sides, one which could end up being a win-win one if Turkey succeeds in removing (or assisting in the removal of) the US and Saudi Arabia’s proxies in Syria and holds off on (or is prevented from pursuing )any ulterior regime change agenda (i.e. through the constitutional revision), but which could also turn very bad for the Multipolar Community if Erdogan either gets to greedy and/or is won back over by the US in the midst of all of this. Setting aside one’s personal opinion about the wisdom of this initiative, the reality is that Syria, Russia, and Iran all agreed to it with the understanding being that the possible benefits far outweigh the dangers and that emergency split-second military contingency  measures could be implemented to rein in Turkey if it suddenly gets out of control.
 Regarding the possibility of the US wooing Erdogan back?

I noticed it was being reported yesterday that Obama was finally going to be able to find some time to meet Erdogan...on the sidelines of the  G-20 meeting in China- September 4/2016

So after the coup attempt--- no one visited Turkey, an alleged NATO ally, from the US until Joe Biden showed up last week- No visit by John Kerry.  No president to president visit between Turkey and the US in all this time. Until after Turkey starts shooting at  the US besties in Syria..
Recalling the tacit approval to the coup plotters from the US.

"U.S. President Barack Obama will have a bilateral meeting with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan during the G20 summit in China next month and is likely to have at least an informal talk with Russia's Vladimir Putin, the White House said on Monday.
Obama wants to talk with Erdogan about events in Turkey after July's attempted coup, the military campaign against Islamic State, and how to promote stability in Syria, Deputy National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes told reporters.
The White House said it opposes Turkey's push into areas in northern Syria controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, an opposition group the Obama administration supports............."

curious and curiouser


  1. i'll be doing a new post on the turkish syria situation later today- However I did enjoy the above oped by Andrew Korbyko and hope you all give it a read :)

  2. Penny, mass graves
    'whole tribes exterminated' http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/isil-buried-thousands-in-72-mass-graves-report.aspx?pageID=238&nID=103377&NewsCatID=352

    who would benefit ? we all know who
    and it appears AP might be helping to shroud that ?

  3. Hi, it's ok. I would look at Justin Raimondo and his articles on Kurdistan. He has been writing about the Kurd-Israel for almost 10 years now :)

    1. Hi Ally:
      I was unaware of Raimondo's work-
      But generally stay away from anti war.com
      which would be why I hadn't a clue
      Is there something specific you think would be notable?

  4. http://thesaker.is/hezbollah-leader-explains-why-syria-assad-are-crucial-to-middle-east-war-english-subs/

    Short 9 minute video in which Hezzbolla leader Nasralla gives his views about the why's of the US/Israeli attack on Syria.

  5. http://thesaker.is/hezbollah-leader-explains-why-syria-assad-are-crucial-to-middle-east-war-english-subs/

    Short 9 minute video in which Hezzbolla leader Nasralla gives his views about the why's of the US/Israeli attack on Syria.

  6. So should we assume from the oped that the writer believes the MIT and the military are now fully under Erdogan control?

    Look at the events in Kyrgz and Uzbek. Belgrade 1999?
    With Russia parked in Syria the US has no option but to play for a stalemate (Moldova, Georgia etc) while concentrating their firepower on Mosul and the legacy basing plus new Kurdistan bases.

    The original map of the Turkish safe havens is a logisitical supply map to Syrian rebels coming off the border. The afghan experience 'pullout' is the Rojava proxy.

    At best the US is playing for a stalemate at worst it is coiling in iraq with an 'ink blot' strategy. 'core' Russian nationali interests are under duress in all directions, including that wargaming days ago with the currency.

    Syria Kurds and the YPG are not happening in a vaccum. Russia is defending its interests as Medvedev said, and there are far bigger ones at the moment, Eurasia implications aside, than the YPG ambitions in northern Syria which at best looks like the precursor to a long term state of emergency.

    1. And Barzani links to Erdogan are a tripwire, more useful perhaps in the short term especially with the Turkish forces ongoing airstrikes in Iraq (PKK). When the Mosul coalition moves, does Barzani becomes an impediment to Gorran-Syria nexus, his special relationship with Erdogan notwithstanding? And that explains the Iran attacks which brings into focus the following from Interfax

      Azerbaijan Railways begin freight shipments from Iran to Russia on North-South corridor

    2. “The YPG is engaged in ethnic cleansing, they are placing who they want to in those places,” Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Çavuşoğlu said in Ankara, demanding the YPG withdraw east of the Euphrates.

      Syrian Kurdish spokesman says Manbij reinforced, but not by YPG

      Free for all.

      As for the Russians being undermanned the author does touch on an editorial point by the Daily Star

      “I get the feeling we’re like a horse at the circus, running around in a circle since Sept. 30 when we first deployed our aircraft there,” said a person close to the Russian Defense Ministry who spoke on condition of anonymity. “Our forces are insufficient, our coordination with the Iranians is not at the required level. We need to change something. What, I don’t know,” the source said. Title of the article: Russian air power fails in Aleppo .

      Uzbek president reportedly dead.
      China forces in Syria. Embassy suicide attack. Kyrgz.

    3. As for the Russians being undermanned the author does touch on an editorial point by the Daily Star

      I didn't post the entire oped- It was vastly larger then what is here, that said, he does touch on Russia's inability to fight (supply troops)
      Same as Iran

    4. http://thesaker.is/assessing-the-russian-military-as-an-instrument-of-power/

      An analysis of Russian military's capabilities.
      When analyzing the numbers of aircraft, equipment and personnel currently operating in Syria, you certainly must conclude that it is a small force, approximately 50 aircraft, S-400 systems barely sufficient at best, a small contingent of maintenance personnel and troops, who are performing well beyond what should be expected. An amazing number of missions. Along with eye opening military and electronic capabilities and systems. But it is a relatively small force.

    5. http://thesaker.is/assessing-the-russian-military-as-an-instrument-of-power/

      An analysis of Russian military's capabilities.
      When analyzing the numbers of aircraft, equipment and personnel currently operating in Syria, you certainly must conclude that it is a small force, approximately 50 aircraft, S-400 systems barely sufficient at best, a small contingent of maintenance personnel and troops, who are performing well beyond what should be expected. An amazing number of missions. Along with eye opening military and electronic capabilities and systems. But it is a relatively small force.

    6. http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160830/1044764369/iraq-mosul-daesh-fighters.html

      Aleppo boy (which Chinese official media called fake), Chemical weapons, Barrel bombs, wedding bombing, mass graves and lost boys in iraq. Heavy campaign and it precedes the Turkey move.

  7. "So should we assume from the oped that the writer believes the MIT and the military are now fully under Erdogan control?"

    Not sure what the author believes in that regard?
    However, I am not completely certain of that myself..
    Perhaps the purge was enough and perhaps it wasn't??
    And that's a big part of this whole situation..

    " When the Mosul coalition moves, does Barzani becomes an impediment to Gorran-Syria nexus"

    Personally, speaking Barzani already appears to be an impediment- if the Gorran- Syria nexus is successful Barzani will be out- As stated previously.

  8. "The afghan experience 'pullout' is the Rojava proxy"

    clarify and thanks!

    1. Us didnt pull out and is accelerating velocity of operation

      iraq said it would export through iran around Kurds
      Militias reportedly recruiting children..
      Def Min iraq no confidence moption
      More suicide attacks in Iraq



      US general says Iraq to retake mosul this year: which Iraq?


    2. From the article:

      “All the areas that have been liberated by the peshmerga forces, our [Kurdish] forces will stay there,” said Falah Mustafa, the head of the Iraqi Kurdish region’s foreign relations department, echoing statements by numerous officials.

      Watch the other hand...

    3. I've been trying to stay atop of Mosul... and have seen that the Kurds are saying what they take they are keeping..

    4. A spokesman for tge KRG even stated that what they "liberate" (steal) in the future they will keep.
      This entire thing is going to blow up soon.
      Things are not going the way the US thought they would. Iraqs army advanced blitz-Kreig like, & the US didn't expect that. Their scheaming wasn't up to date.
      Same in Syria. They were in pretty good control until the Turkish intervention, now they are pushing for a ceasefire, which seems to have succeded for now.
      They claim that YPG will then retreat from Manbij, of course they wont. The US is preparing them for a massive battle with the Turkish army (Kurd special forces from Iraq conected to PUK are now in Manbij). Meanwhile the rats in Afrin are advancing with US aircover towards Manbij to connect cantons.
      The Turks need to stop being so afraid of the US and send in 10's of thousands of troops. Either they do this & save their own country, or they don't!!

    5. Hi Rescue- :)
      I finally did get something up on Mosul today, I wondered if the Kurds had advanced from the west, because if you notice "ISIS" attacked Turkish troops- suicide bombing- the attack came from the West and I went aha!

    6. I follow all the frontline news from the war in Syria.
      Yes, the Kurds are trying to adavance, they have announced it now. Fortunately, the Turks tonight bombed the crap out of YPG's positions in Afrin. And AFAIK they have retreated.
      ISIS is very much attacking turkish troops now. The Turks say they called in US air support, but no one responded, the turkish airforce took the targets out themselves. Its clear the US is doing everything to stop the Turks. Turkey need to take drastic action now. Close Incirlik. The barbarians are inside the gate.
      Something else: I have read reports, many places from many sources.
      That over a hundred Turkish tanks & min. 10,000 troops are stationed at Ras Al Ain which is at the Turkish border with Hasakah. YPG have send out tanks & snipers in Hasakah city & its expected that they will attack Assads forces all over soon.
      I suspect we will see a Turkish invasion there soon, in aid of the Syrian army & with Russian air cover.

  9. Russia and Iran ' lack the political will to commit to an all-out sustained military operation to do this themselves' because that was the trap which the US were hoping to push Russia and Iran into. They talked to much how Syria would become Russia's second Afghanistan. It is far more politically important that Syria comes out victorious by herself. That would be the real defeat of USrael combines. Besides, I would think that Russia sent the message that she can achieve what she achieved with a minimal force. Think twice what is in store if it unleashes her real power.

    On the other hand, nobody is mentioning the creation of Kurdistan/Israel 2.0 as a problematic issue for any of the nations involved, because this the modus operandi of Israel. It must appear that Kurdistan, partition of Syria, Irak, Egypt are the result of 'people's will for auto-determination', human rights. Israel only defends itself against the baddies which 'surround' it and are thirsty for Joos blood.

  10. wizoz

    'On the other hand, nobody is mentioning the creation of Kurdistan/Israel 2.0 as a problematic issue for any of the nations involved, because this the modus operandi of Israel"


    You see I've been mentioning it and mentioning it and mentioning it for years!! And no one else save for a small handful of us are- And it's such a huge piece of the puzzle- and it's being ignored.

    Instead we are getting, what I perceive as obfuscation from many, intended to draw attention away from that which is going on right in front of our collective eyes

    all in plain sight!

  11. Happy to be of help!

    Why nobody pays attention? Some reasons were given by Israel Shahak, who disclosed the Yinon plan:

    "Why it is necessary to publish this in Israel?

    The reason for publication is the dual nature of the Israeli-Jewish society: A very great measure of freedom and democracy, specially for Jews, combined with expansionism and racist discrimination. In such a situation the Israeli-Jewish elite (for the masses follow the TV and Begin’s speeches) has to be persuaded. The first steps in the process of persuasion are oral, as indicated above, but a time comes in which it becomes inconvenient. Written material must be produced for the benefit of the more stupid “persuaders” and “explainers” (for example medium-rank officers, who are, usually, remarkably stupid). They then “learn it,” more or less, and preach to others. It should be remarked that Israel, and even the Yishuv from the Twenties, has always functioned in this way. I myself well remember how (before I was “in opposition”) the necessity of war with was explained to me and others a year before the 1956 war, and the necessity of conquering “the rest of Western Palestine when we will have the opportunity” was explained in the years 1965-67.

    "Why is it assumed that there is no special risk from the outside in the publication of such plans?"

    Such risks can come from two sources, so long as the principled opposition inside Israel is very weak (a situation which may change as a consequence of the war on Lebanon) : The Arab World, including the Palestinians, and the United States. The Arab World has shown itself so far quite incapable of a detailed and rational analysis of Israeli-Jewish society, and the Palestinians have been, on the average, no better than the rest. In such a situation, even those who are shouting about the dangers of Israeli expansionism (which are real enough) are doing this not because of factual and detailed knowledge, but because of belief in myth. A good example is the very persistent belief in the non-existent writing on the wall of the Knesset of the Biblical verse about the Nile and the Euphrates. Another example is the persistent, and completely false declarations, which were made by some of the most important Arab leaders, that the two blue stripes of the Israeli flag symbolize the Nile and the Euphrates, while in fact they are taken from the stripes of the Jewish praying shawl (Talit). The Israeli specialists assume that, on the whole, the Arabs will pay no attention to their serious discussions of the future, and the Lebanon war has proved them right. So why should they not continue with their old methods of persuading other Israelis?
    In the United States a very similar situation exists, at least until now. The more or less serious commentators take their information about Israel, and much of their opinions about it, from two sources. The first is from articles in the “liberal” American press, written almost totally by Jewish admirers of Israel who, even if they are critical of some aspects of the Israeli state, practice loyally what Stalin used to call “the constructive criticism.” (In fact those among them who claim also to be “Anti-Stalinist” are in reality more Stalinist than Stalin, with Israel being their god which has not yet failed). In the framework of such critical worship it must be assumed that Israel has always “good intentions” and only “makes mistakes,” and therefore such a plan would not be a matter for discussion–exactly as the Biblical genocides committed by Jews are not mentioned. The other source of information, The Jerusalem Post, has similar policies. So long, therefore, as the situation exists in which Israel is really a “closed society” to the rest of the world, because the world wants to close its eyes, the publication and even the beginning of the realization of such a plan is realistic and feasible"

    But this was the modus operandi all along centuries. “La plus belle des ruses du diable est de vous persuader qu'il n'existe pas."(Charles Baudelaire)