Monday, October 30, 2017

Turkey May Pay Heavy Price for Barzani Resignation

Since the late 2000s, Erdogan developed a close political relationship with Barzani, facilitated by burgeoning trade and shared distrust of Baghdad's leadership.

Erdogan repeatedly accused Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and his predecessor Nouri al-Maliki of pursuing policies against Iraq’s Sunni minority.

“Ankara will have less say over Baghdad with a diminished influence over KRG because Ankara worked through KRG Kurdistan in Baghdad. This is a fact,” said Selcen. “In the mid and long term Ankara’s and Tehran interests will not overlap,” he said.

The cost to Ankara of undermining Barzani and his KDP Party is not only confined to diplomatic influence. The main beneficiary could be the Kurdish rebel group the PKK that is fighting for greater autonomy for Kurds in Turkey.

The PKK has many of its bases in the Iraqi Kurdish region. “The political arena is the more forthcoming for the PKK presence because the KDP was the strongest ally in Ankara’s fight against the PKK. I don’t know how that will continue from now on,” notes Selcen. “But the fight against the PKK has become an agenda for Baghdad and Ankara,” he said.

“Assuming in Iraqi Kurdistan, the PKK gains strength at the disadvantage of Barzani, I don’t see what Ankara can do but intervene one way or another,” warns Yesilada. On Oct.13 and for the first time in nine years, Turkish forces carried out a cross border military operation into Iraqi Kurdistan against the PKK.

With the Iraqi Kurdistan region facing an economic crisis and political turmoil under ongoing pressure from Baghdad, Tehran and Ankara, the region could yet face more instability.

“It's true the KRG runs the risk of an imminent implosion and the first test (is) upcoming elections in Iraq, which should be held March 2018,” notes former diplomat Selcen. Analysts say the PKK would likely benefit from any chaos.

 "Analysts say the PKK would likely benefit from any chaos." 

Requoting from today's earlier post, US Lauds Barzani Step Down. Did the US encourage Barzani’s Fall From Power ?, yours truly stated .......

"Perhaps it’s just more of that order out of chaos?

This fits the theory I've been putting forward for two years now...

 October 2015: PKK Challenges Barzani in Iraq- One ring to rule them all?


 Related from last week:

You'll notice the leader of Gorran emerged from the region controlled by the PUK?
Abdullah Öcalan, the group's leader, sought primacy over his Iraqi Kurdish competitors. "Barzani and Talabani are like feet or arms, but I am the main head or mind," Öcalan explained in a 1998 interview.25


  1. Nechirvan Barzani will take over from his uncle Masoud Barzani. Nechirvan is very close to Turkey. Selcen whose comments are featured in the article is a former Turkish diplomat and consul in Erbil. He is extremely pro-PKK.
    It looks like it’s Gorran that is intended to benefit the most. The actions in Erbil yesterday looked like a colour revolution. Speaker of Parliament, Gorran member, claimed he was captured and tortured for over four hours by Barzani loyalists, yet somehow he was able to go on twitter and tell his story afterwards — total BS.
    It looks like things will get a lot worse for Iraq, Turkey and Iran soon.


  2. Hi Rescue:
    I wondered aloud in the previous post if the US had encouraged Barzani's fall from grace.

    " The actions in Erbil yesterday looked like a colour revolution"

    You seem to be suggesting that yes this might have been the case?

    If Nechirvan takes over, would it make a difference considering all the power sharing distribution that has/is taking place?

    Amazing that kind of stuff- held and tortured for over 4 hours- but able to get it all out on twitter?? Must have been a rough time? Or not!

    In one of my older posts I had specifically noted that the Gorran leader had emerged from PUK held territory..
    After returning from London, England.

    I saw a map yesterday, that showed how areas of "Kurdistan" in Iraq are controlled by different war lords
    I should have posted it here so readers understand what is being reported upon.

  3. This despair has certainly increased the possibility of Gorran fans turning to Islamic parties, especially to Kurdistan’s Islamic Group (Komal).

    1. interesting oped- thanks..

      When I think about how most people would take the idea that there are Islamist Kurds???

      ... With disbelief, I guess,since, that it is never the message we here in North America get about the squabbling bunch of people we actually pretend are "one blob" to quote Ally.

      Of course their are the salafist Kurds, would this be the same as the Islamic group Komal? Or is this something else entirely?

      Islamists Kurds! - we're always told they are like rainbows, sunshine and butterflies- And "a people" but always with no definition or context-

      Interesting. well if they turn towards Islamic Parties, I guess, that's what they'll do- shrugs shoulders...

      thanks again