Thursday, July 30, 2009

Swine flu: How scared should we be?

In yesterday's post I mentioned this article to two of the persons who left reponses.
I was referring to the scare mongering about the alleged severe second wave.
The entire article is worth a read. I will however, quote the section I was referring to.

"Swine flu may return in flu season, in October and November," says Schabas, "but the incidence of serious illness will be low."

He points to Australia where swine flu arrived in May, at the start of its autumn and winter. As of this week, 45 people have died there and the number of cases is about 16,000.

Schabas says a flu virus with a second surge more potent than the first has never happened before – and he includes the influenza pandemic of 1918-1919. An estimated 500 million people, one third of the world's population, were infected then. Lacking antibiotics or ventilators, anywhere from 20 million to 50 million died.

Schabas says there is nothing but anecdotal evidence to support the common belief that the Spanish flu, as it was called, consisted of a first wave in the spring of 1918, then a second, more lethal wave in the winter. He suspects it was an altogether different virus the second time round.

He blames the media for exaggerating fears, not so much with inflammatory stories, but by being "amazingly uncritical" of the public health establishment.

He is not alone:

Enter Dr. Neil Rau, medical director of infection prevention and control at Halton Healthcare Services. He too flatly says swine flu's second wave isn't going to be a "a bestseller pandemic" any more than the first.

"It's not going to be the evil foe they're expecting. We'll see more incidence this winter, but there is no evidence of more virulence coming."

Why are he and Schabas seemingly alone in their contradiction, or at least downplaying, of what public health officials nationally and internationally have been saying since April?

"Fear of sticking out? Empire justification?" he offers, then adds: "Schabas and I aren't funded by organizations whose existence relies on appearing prepared. There are a lot of people out West, in B.C. (where H1N1 first hit in Canada), who tacitly agree."

Also see this link and all the links there.

Baxter Files Swine Flu Vaccine Patent A Year Ahead Of Outbreak


  1. Thanks for this vital stuff on swine flu, Penny. The Dept of Health and Ageing reports 58 confirmed deaths as of 30th July. But, as I read yesterday or the day before, all those who have died here had underlying serious health conditions. So far not so different to seasonal flu. The thought of the vaccine tests being rolled out now in Australia are frightening, especially in the light of your links to the information on adjuvants.

  2. and all this talk of making them mandatory is well, weird.

    We (hubby and I) have decided against them.

    It just seems the risk lies with the vaccine and not so much the flu itself.

  3. I think that the swine flue stuff is propaganda and that they will never enforce mass vaccinations because they don't have gun control yet.

    I think Codex will get us and everything is to leave codex cloaked. Its never on TV..

  4. Rima Laibow is on Rense talking about Swine Flu for July 30 2009.

    She is always very informative.