Op-ed from the CFR
Summary: Morsi’s victory in Egypt's presidential election puts Islamists in control an office that was once the exclusive province of the military. But was Sunday's Tahrir Square celebration premature? The military's June 17 decree hedged against a Morsi win by approximating the tutelary role the Turkish military enjoyed until recently-
The “ recently” assertion regarding Turkey is questionable. Story for another day. For today, Egypt.
Of course, read the article entirely at link.
"Yet despite all the tension of the last week and the historic nature of Morsi’s victory, in an odd way it seems a little too neat.
To be sure, the Officers preferred Ahmed Shafiq to Morsi. The former prime minister’s late May surge was no doubt the result of a broad effort among the remnants of the old regime, the intelligence services, and the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) to revive the networks of the National Democratic Party. Yet, in the end, Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi and the rest of the military leadership determined that fixing the results in favor of Shafiq was too risky.”
The results that the head of the Supreme Presidential Election Commission, Farouk Sultan, announced on Sunday afternoon were precisely the results that both the press and the Brotherhood reported almost immediately after the elections.
So, did they fix the results in favour of Morsi? The fact that Muslim Brotherhood numbers and military numbers were the same, means nothing in particular. It was sort of questionable how it was the Muslim Brotherhood KNEW what the results were immediately after the election? Also seems odd that alleged opposing parties would have precisely the same results. No wonder the CFR notes how "neat" this all seems.
Continuing on with the military and it’s “ace”. Not my language
It did not matter, though. Declaring Shafiq the winner despite the results was wholly unnecessary due to what the military clearly believes is its ace: the June 17 constitutional declaration.
The timing of the decree, just as polls closed on the second day of the second round of elections, suggests that the military’s action was improvised. As if sometime on Sunday afternoon, one of the officers turned to another and asked with alarm, “What if Morsi wins?” It was anything but ad hoc, however. Shortly after the fall of Mubarak, Field Marshal Tantawi asked for a translation of Turkey’s 1982 constitution, which both endows Turkish officers with wide-ranging powers to police the political arena and curtails the power of civilian leaders. In the June 17 decree, the military hedged against a Morsi victory by approximating the tutelary role
As a result, President Morsi does not control the budget; has no foreign policy, defense, or national security function; and has been stripped of the president’s duty as commander-in-chief of the armed forces, meaning he has no control over military personnel. In addition, having dissolved parliament in a move that has no legal basis, the SCAF now also functions as Egypt’s legislature. Finally, the military will be able to veto articles of a new constitution. So, for example, if the drafters of the new constitution include civilian control and parliamentary oversight of the armed forces, Field Marshal Tantawi can object, force the Constituent Assembly to review the article, and, if necessary, bring it to the Supreme Constitutional Court. Although in the abstract, the military has set out a clear procedure for adjudicating disputes over the draft constitution, the Officers clearly expect past patterns of civil-military relations to hold sway.I am going to take you back to an old blog post
The military’s June 17th constitutional declaration was predicated on a combination of the Officers’ historic role in the political system, implicit threats, and the assumption that many Egyptians who fear the Brotherhood will support the SCAF’s bid to reinforce its autonomy. It may not work out as planned, however. President-elect Morsi is pushing back already. While paying homage to the Egyptian armed forces, his camp has already declared that they do not recognize the dissolution of the parliament or the legality of the military’s decree. During the heady moments of Sunday’s celebrations in Tahrir Square, the Brotherhood vowed that Morsi would take the oath of office before the People’s Assembly. Morsi’s supporters, the revolutionaries of the April 6th Movement, and others have vowed not to leave Tahrir Square until the actual handover of power scheduled for July 1st, recognizing it as their only leverage to hold SCAF accountable. They are also gearing up for a battle to defeat the constitutional declaration.
Clearly, as important as the election of Mohamed Morsi may be, Egypt’s struggle to define a new political order is far from over. The SCAF has been eager to relinquish the day-to-day administration of Egypt, but it has no intention of abdicating its central role in the political system in favor of the Brothers. With Morsi’s elevation to the presidency, the Brotherhood has the symbolic advantage, but it does not have the means to impose its will on the officers. The only likely result from this state of affairs is more uncertainty and instability.
" Egypt's military leaders say they are committed to eventually handing over power to an elected civilian administration that will abide by its international agreements."
The military then dropped the international agreements part, or the media did? But they remained firm on the civilian administration
An elected civilian administration. That doesn’t sound like a government with power. It sounds like pencil pushers and figureheads.
Then today Pentagon calls the new military men in Egypt
Top Pentagon leaders say have talked by phone with their new Egyptian counterparts and are hoping to continue the longtime military relationship between Washington and Cairo.From where I sit, it looks like a beautiful relationship will continue.
Just a thought from earlier
News on Syria tomorrow and still hoping for the safety of Tozz.