Wednesday, September 10, 2014

The Two Wars In Ukraine

From James @ WinterPatriot

Excerpting from his excellent piece

There are two wars being waged in Ukraine. One is by the Kiev Junta Forces (KJF) against the citizens of the Donbas in an effort to drive them out of their home and to kill and terrorize those that remain. This is, of course, one big war crime. The second war is being waged by the Novorossian Armed Forces (NAF) against the invading KJF and their masters in Kiev.
The purpose of Kiev junta's war is to gain (or regain) control of physical territory and resources. That is what is important to psychopaths. Behind the oligarchs in control of Kiev are the bankers of London and New York who control NATO and their member governments. Their big picture aim is to cripple the Russian economy so it doesn't outshine the dying economies of the West and to eventually bring about regime change in Moscow.
The NAF are fighting to completely eliminate the Ukrainian military and the fascist volunteer forces as viable forces that can be used by the junta against all the people of Ukraine.

(picture source) . . . Come on Porky. Just a bit closer . . . .

They aim to bring about freedom for the Novorossians and the chance for the rest of Ukraine to bring about a regime change of their own. This will suit the Russian government in its overall aim of eliminating the bankers from any power over the BRICS nations and eventually eliminate them from any power in the world.
So right now the junta are shelling the population of Novorossia to gain territory and the NAF are setting about systematically killing the KJF. The NAF are much less interested in controlling territory in the short term. They are focused on destroying the KJF and the best place to do that is in the Donbas on their own territory where supply lines are short, where they have the support of the people and where they know the territory intimately. It also frames their war as defensive and not aggressive.
Since abandoning Slaviansk, the NAF have been engaging the KJF away from population centres and, for their part, sparing civilian lives. I mentioned in my previous essay the Mongol tactics used centuries ago in Europe. The effect is to destroy the local lord's military and spare the populace in many cases. I think it is very likely we will see a rerun of these tactics against the KJF who have fortified themselves in Mariupol.

Snip ends..........more info between the section above and below
"So back to the ceasefire. Is it likely that Zakharchenko conferred with Putin before signing? I would say it is highly likely he did. Does anyone think that the junta thugs or neocon idiots are smarter than Putin or Shoigu?
I must say I was confused by it but then asked myself, “Am I smarter or do I have more information than Vladimir Putin?” “No”, was my answer, of course! So what is going on?
Well, what happened immediately afterwards? The momentum that the NAF had towards Mariupol was broken which Alexei Mozgovoi was quick to complain about. But was that such a bad thing? For one thing, the NAF needed a break to recuperate and replenish its supplies. There were many warnings going around that they were in danger of over extending themselves. A further complaint was that the ceasefire (such as it was) would allow the Kiev govt to consolidate its position.
Almost immediately and predictably, the Kiev regime sent more reinforcements into Mariupol to shore up their position. This was denounced as a blunder by many including Strelkov who intimated that Vladislav Surkov was behind this and that it amounted to an act of treason. But was it a blunder and was it treason?
Going back to the Mongol tactics (as I see them) which have been used to great effect so far against the KJF and the Syrian experience of the Russian military advisers, can we really deduce that the NAF are going to shell Mariupol and fight their way into it? I don't think so. It runs counter to their previous tactics and strategy and it runs counter to their preserving the lives of their fellow Novorossians. So if the NAF are not going to fight their way into Mariupol, does it matter if the Kiev forces there are reinforced? The probable outcome is that the NAF are going to lay siege to Mariupol and leave them there and destroy any junta forces that venture out of the city.
If you are going to lay siege to your opponent's forces in a city, do you want as many of them as possible within the city or do you want half of them outside the city and at your back? I think I would want them all bottled up within Mariupol using the sea as my ally as well. Given this, would it make sense to sign a ceasefire so that the morons in Kiev could send more troops into the trap that is being prepared in Mariupol? Indeed, the signs are that the NAF has now siezed the town of Chervone Pole to the west of Mariupol and are about to seal the KJF's fate. If I'm reading this right, from there the KJF can surrender and be evacuated to Russia (perhaps by sea) or they can die trying to break out"

Read entirely at the link above.