Monday, April 15, 2019

Turkey May Use S-400 in the Aegean- Eastern Med Gas: A2/AD & Russia

This seems to be turning into a series:
  1. "It’s Not Too Late to Stop Turkey From Realigning With Russia" ?

  2. Russia Welcomes Tough Turkish Position In Response to US Pressure: Flashpoint, Cyprus.

 Long term readers here may or should recall my suggesting the possibility that the S-400 can be used as part of an A2/AD system in partnership with Russia.

A2/AD was covered here some years back:
  1. 2015-  Russia building an A2/AD Bubble over Syria/Levant

  2. 2015- A2/AD Bubble, Syria and the Bigger Strategic Picture

 Written before Turkey purchased the s-400's

Leaders of 2 targeted nations
 Of, course, I don't know with certainty, but it seems sensible that building this type of security "bubble" is something Russia and Turkey could have a mutual interest in undertaking. Protecting their nation states coastlines/choke points and the ability to have free passage into and out of the Black Sea.
Turkey May Use S-400 Missiles in the Aegean...

This could be part of an A2/AD?
"Ankara is digging in its heels on the procurement of super-advanced Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile systems and has declared that it is determined to go ahead with the receipt of the first batch in July and that the system will be used to shield the Aegean and several other areas.

According to a report in the Turkish daily Milliyet entitled “They are coming in July! 600-metre wall”, despite the American and Nato threats the procurement of the Russian missile system will act as a deterrent in the Aegean where the Turkish Air Force is pressured by Greek warplanes and in the Eastern Mediterranean, where Ankara is demanding a chunk of the offshore gas and oil deposits of the Republic of Cyprus. The report said that the acquisition of the missile systems will bolster Turkey’s sovereignty.

The procurement will ratchet up the pressure of the Greek Air Force, all the moves of which will be constantly tracked in real time. The report said that this will allow Ankara to substantially reduce the cost of surveilling the Aegean with its Air Force.
The S-400s radars have a range of up to 570—600kms. It can detect bombers at a distance of 570kms and F-16 Fighters with a 400km range.

In addition, the Russians are to deliver 128 missiles with various ranges – 40, 120, and 250kms – and others that will be used in alternation. Russia is also examining the possibility of selling missiles with a 400km range to Turkey.
The locations where the missile systems will be placed are being reviewed by the Turkish General Staff and government. It is expected that one missile battery will be stationed at the Akinci Air Base northwest of Ankara, which is where upkeep work for all the batteries will be done"
Aegean to Black Sea: Dardanelles etc
Other possible locations are the Turkish Straits near the Aegean, the Sea of Marmara near Istanbul, the Mediterranean, southeast Turkey near the Syrian border, and Eastern Thrace near the Greek border.
Additional Reading:

 The Implications of Eastern Mediterranean Gas for Turkey

Definitely related to both previous posts.

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