Tuesday, October 20, 2020

Nagorno-Karabakh needs a regional solution: M. K. BHADRAKUMAR

 This is an excellent op ed. Nagarno Karabakh does INDEED need a regional solution.


Bhadrakumar points out, what has been written about for years here at PFYT’s, that is the constant demonisation of Turkey and it’s leadership. This thought line comes straight from the US and friends. As has been stated, those slagging Turkey, in an irrational manner, are merely parroting Usrael Intelligence/ Military Industrial Propaganda.
Yes, that's you Loon, I mean. Moon of Alabama! And, Saker. Which is why neither site is linked here, in case you all wondered? There are far to many other non critical mouthpieces around. 

 I'm in agreement a regional solution is the only way to go. So sayonara France and the US

"The demonisation of Turkey and President Recep Erdogan has been carried too far in the most recent years in the western media. Turkey appears to be mired in controversies all across its neighbourhood — maritime boundary disputes with Greece and Cyprus; occupation of northern Syria; intervention in Libya; support of the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas; sponsorship of radical Islamist groups, e
This is being perceived (presented)  as stemming from Erdogan’s Neo-Ottoman ambitions to reclaim Turkey’s legacy as an imperial power. However, on closer look, the common thread here is Turkey’s rise as a regional power in the post-cold war era. As multipolarity gains traction in international diplomacy, more and more countries will start behaving like Turkey — exploring new opportunities to pursue independent foreign policies.
Branding this outlook as ‘neo-Ottoman’ is obfuscating the geopolitical reality that as Erdogan assertively navigates a way forward to create space for Turkey in a tough neighbourhood, it is bound to cause discomfort to other regional powers with similar regional aspirations. Thus, Israel, Greece, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have joined hands to oppose Turkey and this alliance enjoys US backing.
As has been stated here, repeatedly, the US backs Israel, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Cyprus AGAINST Turkey- It's quite obvious. Or at least it should be if people weren't so busy circle jerking their illusory truth effect- promoted by shills and repeated by the unquestioners

A certain distance has also developed between Russian president Vladimir Putin and Erdogan lately. The two countries’ differences over Syria and Libya have been apparent fro sometime, but that never stopped Putin and Erdogan from working on their convergences. Therefore, it is surprising that the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh has generated such a public rift between Russia and Turkey.

I'm not certain how public the rift is at this point. And am still anticipating diplomatic movement between Russia and Turkey

"Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov highlights that Moscow regards Turkey only as a ‘close partner’ and not a ‘strategic partner’! Russia’s intelligence chief Sergei Naryshkin repeats the unsubstantiated allegation that Turkey is transferring jihadi groups to the Caucasus! Conceivably, Russian officials are playing to the western gallery, capitalising on the strained relations between Turkey and the US.

Putin never once contacted Erdogan directly over N-K, while he held intensive discussions with several world leaders including Trump, Macron and Rouhani — and the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia (more than once.)
Meanwhile, the western media created a narrative of Turkish ‘betrayal’ and propagated a conspiracy theory that Erdogan is working toward ejecting Russia from Transcaucasia.  (Yup, that's how the conspiracy theory goes) Of course, Turkey has been selling arms to Azerbaijan — but so do Russia and Israel. (Russia also equips the Armenian armed forces!)"
"Erdogan made sustained efforts in the past several years to forge a strategic partnership between Ankara and Baku on the basis of the two countries’ Turkic identity. But it is an entirely different thing to say Erdogan has been plotting against Russia or that he is injecting the jihadi virus into Caucasus.

The French President Emmanuel Macron started the spin that Turkey was transferring Islamist fighters from Syria to the Caucasus, but he has an old score to settle with Erdogan. It is an absurd allegation. Azeri President Aliyev abhors ‘jihadis’.

Macron didn't start that spin, but, he certainly catapulted it. Over and over 

France’s Macron has lips that just keep flappin’ in the wind. He never shuts up. And the key paragraph below? France has, indeed, fanned the flames of conflict. And why are so few mentioning motor mouth Macron's role in a number of situations?
Back to the oped

At any rate, Erdogan decided to break the ice, finally, by calling Putin on October 14. The Kremlin readout gave a positive spin, the only discordant note being Putin’s ‘serious concern over the involvement of Middle Eastern fighters in the military action.’  (The Turkish readout ignored Putin’s  imputation.)

Aliyev also has clarified separately that Turkey plans to establish a military base in his country. He said, “Turkey and we have got a wide legal framework. We have agreements signed in many spheres, which include points on cooperation and mutual aid in the military sphere. This is our right. Turkey is our ally, and if there is a serious danger to Azerbaijan, we can use these opportunities. But there has been no discussion of the construction of a Turkish military base in Azerbaijan.” The remark was made possibly to allay any misconceptions in this regard in Moscow.) 
Indeed, Nagorno-Karabakh crisis exposes certain contradictions in Russian policies. On the one hand, Russia befriends Turkey but on the other hand it resents Turkey’s aspirations to be a regional power.

Russia claims to have legitimate interests in Syria, but resents Turkey’s growing influence over oil-rich Azerbaijan, which is also a Caspian littoral state whom Moscow wants to keep in its orbit!

Russia stands to gain out of Turkey’s rift with NATO and EU but will not offer an equal relationship to Turkey. Russia propagates multipolarity but regards its ‘near abroad’ as its sphere of influence. Such opportunism is unsustainable.
An enduring solution to the N-K problem can only be on the basis of the people of Armenia and Azerbaijan being persuaded that in the interests of peace, the occupied region should be returned to Baku — Turkey is absolutely right on that score — with some sort of special status, perhaps, that helps reconciliation between the two nationalities.

In the same way that Golan should be returned to Syria


Of course, that will also entail Russia vacating its base in Armenia, which may cause some heart burn to Moscow. Evidently, the Minsk Group is a recipe for stalemate — just as the Middle East Quartet has been — but that seems to be Russia’s choice today. All three co-chairs of the Minsk Group have lost credibility.
The Minsk Group was constituted in the early 1990 during Boris Yeltsin’s romance with the US. The international situation has radically changed during the past 3 decades. Today, as things stand in big-power relations, the Minsk Group virtually guarantees that the N-K crisis steadily morphs into a geopolitical slugfest. Haven’t we had enough of such slugfests already?

The only viable route appears to be the ‘Astana format’ within which Russia, Turkey and Iran could harmonise on Syria and move in a concerted fashion. Tehran has proposed a similar format for resolving the N-K problem, consistent with its stance that such problems are best addressed by the regional states.

Excellent idea- An Astana Format. It could be done and it could work.
But Putin seems to prefer the company of Trump and Macron, knowing fully well the US and French antipathy toward Erdogan. Perhaps, Putin is doing what he can to help Trump’s re-election? (The Armenian lobby is influential in US politics.) But Erdogan will not be cowed down.

If Erdogan can stand up to Trump as regards the recent testing of the S-400 ABM system, he can as well shrug off any Russian pressure tactic. In fact, he will. Turkey may not have many friends in the region, but Russia has even less. 

A well considered piece- 



7 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  2. Penny I read this in the morning but the comment I left hasn't appeared on M.K's site. As below:

    Good read Mr. Badrakumar.

    It occurred to me recently that as rational as Russian diplomacy is being conducted in these lawless times, they may well be making a mistake not including Turkey in the peace talks over N.K. I can understand the Armenian refusal but they have many big players on their side. Turkey does have a border with Armenia, is close to Azerbaijan and has ethnic links and influence in the region. More importantly, it is a regional tinderbox that could set alight the region. Therefore, I think it is a mistake not to include Turkey at least hint at such a necessity. Historically, both states have a hostile relationship and mistrust is abound. If this regional impasse is to be broken some brave and coordinating steps must be taken, as they have already in Syria and Libya. From a Turkish point of view this necessity is all the more urgent considering the European, US and Israeli posture towards it, especially from its underbelly in NE Syria, the East Med, Libya and now N.K. As you say if Russia is unconcerned with these threats and not realising Turkish national interests or influence it may well end up creating an arc of instability rather than stability in such close proximity to it. At the same time Erdogan may well benefit from cooperation and tame his impulsive nature. He is at least courageous enough to stand up against the Western sphere and walk his own path.

    Above all if history could be viewed as the past not affecting the present then a Turkish Russian entente would be logical and game changing, as you yourself have eruditely articulated.

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    1. Hi Abdullah!

      I think Russia is making a huge mistake in excluding Turkey from negotiation (if this is the case?)

      "I can understand the Armenian refusal but they have many big players on their side"

      You notice that? Armenia has really been the more problematic player in this situation. And it is because they have very big backers on their side. One is of course the US. Then France. And I'm of the mind that Israel is on side. It'll come out in time, depending on the outcome, but, I think they are already there.
      And as I've learned recently the Armenian have a very influential lobby.. their active. Here in Canada. In the US. In the EU. It's quite the opposite of what is usually presented in the media.

      "As you say if Russia is unconcerned with these threats and not realising Turkish national interests or influence it may well end up creating an arc of instability rather than stability in such close proximity to it. "

      I'm hoping Russia foreign policy is not this misguided.
      Because the very last thing Russia needs is more instability in it's neighbourhood and we can see Atlantacist / 5 eyes interests are fomenting instability all over the place. Ukraine, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and the like. In fact destabilizing Syria, Turkey and Iran will generally make the situation for Russia that much more difficult.

      "Above all if history could be viewed as the past not affecting the present then a Turkish Russian entente would be logical and game changing, as you yourself have eruditely articulated."

      If they could cooperate wrt Syria and Libya, they should be able to work cooperatively with the NK situation.

      Delete
  3. Can't post comments here for some reason.

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    1. Comments in posts that are older then two days go to moderation.

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  4. Aunt BB said "do you know about the Armenian "Republic of Artsakh"? It's a neoliberal globalist psyop to break up Azerbaijan, part of a plan to destroy sovereign countries around the world."

    Hey Aunt BB- Yes, I can see Artsakh is a globalist project. It's sooo obvious. All the spin is pro Armenian. Their flunkie is doing the globalist bidding (Pashinian)

    Yes, I'd say one chunk of it will be part of the greater kurdistan project- and both Armenia and Azerbaijan will be at the mercy of their new overlords.

    Do you have some additional information?
    would love to know it!

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    1. Also Aunt BB
      I left this at Scott's as well
      pennyforyourthoughts2@gmail.com

      Delete

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