Saturday, February 20, 2021

We'll Have Herd (Social) Immunity from Covid-19 By April of This Year (77% Drop In Six Weeks) John Hopkins Professor

Covid cases have dropped 77% in six weeks. Experts should level with the public about the good news

 Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. If a medication slashed cases by 77%, we’d call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted

In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing. Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.

Now add people getting vaccinated. As of this week, 15% of Americans have received the vaccine, and the figure is rising fast. Former Food and Drug Commissioner Scott Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March.

I've little faith in the vaccine's ability to reduce transmission so, in my opinion, that very idea should be discounted.

There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected. At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.

Antibody studies almost certainly underestimate natural immunity. Antibody testing doesn’t capture antigen-specific T-cells, which develop “memory” once they are activated by the virus. Survivors of the 1918 Spanish flu were found in 2008—90 years later—to have memory cells still able to produce neutralizing antibodies.

Researchers at Sweden’s Karolinska Institute found that the percentage of people mounting a T-cell response after mild or asymptomatic Covid-19 infection consistently exceeded the percentage with detectable antibodies. T-cell immunity was even present in people who were exposed to infected family members but never developed symptoms. A group of U.K. scientists in September pointed out that the medical community may be under-appreciating the prevalence of immunity from activated T-cells.
Your own natural immunity :)

Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. would also suggest much broader immunity than recognized. About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection.

In my own conversations with medical experts, I have noticed that they too often dismiss natural immunity, arguing that we don’t have data. The data certainly doesn’t fit the classic randomized-controlled-trial model of the old-guard medical establishment. There’s no control group. But the observational data is compelling.

Please read the re-linked November 18/2020 report (below)

But the consistent and rapid decline in daily cases since Jan. 8 can be explained only by natural immunity. Behavior didn’t suddenly improve over the holidays; Americans traveled more over Christmas than they had since March. Vaccines also don’t explain the steep decline in January. Vaccination rates were low and they take weeks to kick in.

The very steep decline in cases has been covered repeatedly here at PFYT's, while the msm and it's alternative affiliates continue fear mongering

 WSJ continues

My prediction that Covid-19 will be mostly gone by April is based on laboratory data, mathematical data, published literature and conversations with experts. But it’s also based on direct observation of how hard testing has been to get, especially for the poor. If you live in a wealthy community where worried people are vigilant about getting tested, you might think that most infections are captured by testing. But if you have seen the many barriers to testing for low-income Americans, you might think that very few infections have been captured at testing centers. Keep in mind that most infections are asymptomatic, which still triggers natural immunity.

Many experts, along with politicians and journalists, are afraid to talk about herd immunity. The term has political overtones because some suggested the U.S. simply let Covid rip to achieve herd immunity. That was a reckless idea. But herd immunity is the inevitable result of viral spread and vaccination. When the chain of virus transmission has been broken in multiple places, it’s harder for it to spread—and that includes the new strains.

Herd immunity has been well-documented in the Brazilian city of Manaus, where researchers in the Lancet reported the prevalence of prior Covid-19 infection to be 76%, resulting in a significant slowing of the infection. Doctors are watching a new strain that threatens to evade prior immunity. But countries where new variants have emerged, such as the U.K., South Africa and Brazil, are also seeing significant declines in daily new cases. The risk of new variants mutating around the prior vaccinated or natural immunity should be a reminder that Covid-19 will persist for decades after the pandemic is over. It should also instill a sense of urgency to develop, authorize and administer a vaccine targeted to new variants.

Some medical experts privately agreed with my prediction that there may be very little Covid-19 by April but suggested that I not to talk publicly about herd immunity because people might become complacent and fail to take precautions or might decline the vaccine. But scientists shouldn’t try to manipulate the public by hiding the truth. As we encourage everyone to get a vaccine, we also need to reopen schools and society to limit the damage of closures and prolonged isolation. Contingency planning for an open economy by April can deliver hope to those in despair and to those who have made large personal sacrifices.

Dr. Makary is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, chief medical adviser to Sesame Care, and author of “The Price We Pay

 Reread the previous posts below

So the body's natural immune system function still offers the best protection for the human body! I'm shocked I tell ya! Stunned by this news.

And if you believe that, you should be made aware there is no shock on my part. No surprise. This is exactly what I'd expect our immune system to do. Build immunity. It's how our bodies work. It's how we've adapted to our environment, YES this planet is our environment, for a very long time. And we daily intermingle with all that lives on it. We draw immune boosting components from trees, plants etc. This is our home. The earth. Which is why locking yourself in your home and breathing through a mask are two of the most unhealthiest actions you can take to "protect" yourself.

The media has been avoiding mentioning the massive drop in cases because they are determined to  stay on their knees, in perpetual servitude to their big pharma paymasters.  Terrorizing the masses while promoting the disgusting Bill Gates as some type of hero/saviour. It's a disgrace. Truly! 

It's been a busy day at the blog. Please do not miss the earlier posts:

7 comments:

  1. Go here to get a better perspective on the actual mortality rates.
    The figures you cite in your piece are quite overstated.

    The entirety of what constitutes "Covid-19" is fraud. What are called "cases", what are called "C19 deaths"- every single aspect of this is manufactured. These are crimes that have been committed.

    https://www.academia.edu/44918309/

    A Critical Review of CDC USA Data on Covid-19:PCR/Antigen Tests & Cases Reveal Herd Immunity Only,& Do Not Warrant Public Hysteria or Lockdowns

    James DeMeo, PhD
    February 9, 2021
    (Scroll down the link for the paper.)

    Also at:
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/348550612

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Unknown:

      "Go here to get a better perspective on the actual mortality rates"

      I AGREE that the Covid death rates have been grossly
      inflated

      I AGREE that the vast majority of claimed covid deaths are actually deaths WITH covid, and NOT FROM covid. These deaths would have been attributed to, under normal circumstances, any one or all of the multiple comorbidites of the deceased. Heart disease. Cancer. Diabetes. These are the top killers globally, for decades.

      When I look at the entirety of what was stated starting at "Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. would also suggest much broader immunity than recognized....

      What is being stated is that the numbers of those who died WITH covid speak to the prevalence of the virus in society at large.

      The deaths with covid suggest the virus is pervasive and will/has inevitably resulted in social immunity aka herd immunity.

      That's how I understood what I read in the article.
      I'll have a look at the links you left and thank you for leaving them. :)

      Delete
  2. Herd immunity was the official (but unspoken) Coronavirus policy after Gerald Ford's quixotic failure to contain an outbreak cost him the presidency. The UK was quite outspoken about that, too.

    Then–because our media relentlessly drew our attention to it–China's unique response panicked Western government into attempting to replicate its response.

    Of course, we lack the cultural and managerial chops to mount such a campaign and so lost the world's respect. Read it and weep: https://www.unz.com/article/the-great-covid-conspiracy-of-silence/#new_comments

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't know if China's response panicked Western governments? Maybe it did? Maybe it didn't?

      In many ways it seems Western governments were overly zealous in their reactions compared to China.

      Thanks for the link Godfree

      Delete
  3. An Example of the drop in cases the media has been ignoring can be found in the chart provided by google of reported cases

    https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=canada+covid+cases+chart

    January 8/21: There were a total of 9213 cases

    February 20/21: The number has free fallen to 2715 cases

    That represents a reduction of 70.5 percent in cases - without vaccine intervention (which is useless anyway because there is and never was any evidence the vaccine prevented transmission

    Therefore the media is ignoring a more then 70 percent drop in cases, in Canada, to keep the fear going.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. M.R. here …
      And then along comes Tricky Tam riding on a rocket ship powered by VOC (Variants of Concern). Try not to injure your forehead when you do a high velocity palm slap at the sight of Tam's graph. Notice the color coding and the obvious and devious message that we must lockdown even harder to stay on the blue line. There's a lot of people I'd like to put on Tam's rocket ship and send them all on a one-way ride to Uranus.

      https://torontosun.com/news/health-officials-cant-explain-dr-tams-rocket-ship-modelling

      Delete
    2. Hi M.R.

      OMG, I looked at that bizarre chart...
      But one good thing?
      I guess Tam's model proves the vaccines are a fail.
      Which we already know anyway, but, thanks for acknowledging that Theresa the scam Tam

      Delete

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